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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 30.

  1. Confidence intervals for ratios
    econometric examples in Stata and R
    Author: Lye, Jenny N.; Hirschberg, Joseph G.
    Published: July 2018
    Publisher:  University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Melbourne

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    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9780734054227
    Edition: Revised
    Series: [Working papers / The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics ; 2037]
    Subjects: turning points; quadratic specification; interaction terms; long-run elasticities; willingness-to-pay; NAIRU; 2SLS & ILS; Stata; R
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Vollbeschäftigung
    Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Programme
    Author: Lichtenberger, Andreas; Heimberger, Philipp; Arsenev, Aleksandr; Gökten, Meryem
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, [Wien]

    Das Konzept der Vollbeschäftigung ist mit verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Aspekten verknüpft. Wir geben einen Überblick über Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Fragen im Zusammenhang mit Vollbeschäftigung. Wir leisten einen neuen... more

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    Das Konzept der Vollbeschäftigung ist mit verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Aspekten verknüpft. Wir geben einen Überblick über Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Fragen im Zusammenhang mit Vollbeschäftigung. Wir leisten einen neuen Beitrag, indem wir mehrdimensionale Aspekte der Vollbeschäftigung in Bezug auf Definitionen, theoretische Perspektiven, Messungen, politische Debatten und Policy-Programme zusammenführen. Wir unterscheiden zwischen Konzepten der Vollbeschäftigung, die eine systematische Verbindung zu Preisstabilität herstellen, Ansätzen minimaler Arbeitslosigkeit und maximaler Beschäftigung sowie dem Fokus auf unbesetzte offene Stellen. Zudem diskutieren wir verschiedene Messungen von Vollbeschäftigung für ausgewählte Volkswirtschaften und schlagen eine neue Vollbeschäftigungstypologie vor. Auf der Grundlage unserer Ergebnisse argumentieren wir, dass die Konzeptionalisierung und Messung von Vollbeschäftigung nicht nur technische Aufgaben sind, sondern unweigerlich normative Positionen beinhalten. Abschließend erörtern wir Optionen für zukünftige Forschung. The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding definitions, theoretical perspectives, empirical measurements, policy debates and real-world policy programs. We distinguish: concepts of full employment that provide systematic links to price stability; minimum unemployment and maximum employment approaches; and the unfilled vacancies perspective. Furthermore, we provide and discuss different empirical measures of full employment for selected economies, and we propose a new full employment typology. Based on our survey findings, we argue that conceptualising and measuring full employment is not merely a technical task, but inevitably involves normative judgments. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Forschungsbericht / wiiw ; 28 (Oktober 2024)
    Subjects: Vollbeschäftigung; NAIRU; Beveridge-Kurve; Beschäftigung; Wohlfahrtsstaaten; Beschäftigungsprogramme
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Testing the waters of positive hysteresis
    the effects of autonomous demand shocks on inflation, accumulation, and labor in the US economy
    Author: Di Domenico, Lorenzo; Gahn, Santiago José; Romaniello, Davide
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  Centro di ricerche e documentazione "Piero Sraffa", Roma (Italy)

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Centro Sraffa working papers ; n. 64
    Subjects: hysteresis; inflation; autonomous demand; NAIRU; potential output
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis
    Author: Stockhammer, Engelbert; Sturn, Simon
    Published: 2008
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Hypothese, dass der Grad an Arbeitsmarkthysterese in Folge einer Rezession von der Reaktion der Geldpolitik abhängt. Der Hysteresegrad wird in der empirischen Untersuchung durch die geldpolitische Reaktion und... more

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    Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Hypothese, dass der Grad an Arbeitsmarkthysterese in Folge einer Rezession von der Reaktion der Geldpolitik abhängt. Der Hysteresegrad wird in der empirischen Untersuchung durch die geldpolitische Reaktion und Standardvariablen für Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen in einer Pooled Cross-Country Analyse erklärt. Verwendet werden Quartalsdaten, das Sample umfasst 40 Rezessionen in 19 OECD Ländern für welche die benötigten Daten zur Verfügung stehen. Der untersuchte Zeitraum umfasst die Jahre 1980 bis 2007. Der Aufsatz baut auf Ball (1999) auf, und erweitert das Sample, die betrachtete Zeitperiode und die Kontrollvariablen.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/105907
    Edition: Version 2.0
    Series: Working paper / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie ; 2008,15
    Subjects: monetary policy; NAIRU; structural unemployment; hysteresis; endogenous NAIRU
    Scope: Online-Ressource (19, [6] S.)
    Notes:

    Zsfassung in dt. Sprache
  5. Will the (German) NAIRU please stand up?
    Author: Franz, Wolfgang
    Published: 2003
    Publisher:  ZEW, Mannheim

    This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical... more

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    This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve (e.g. in times of low in ation), the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order to estimate confidence intervals). However, by any method, simple or complex, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/23971
    Series: ZEW discussion paper ; no. 03-35
    Subjects: Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote; Schätzung; Deutschland; NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; Phillips curve; natural rate; hysteresis; supply shocks; inflation expectations; Kalman filter; bootstrap
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Variation in the Phillips Curve relation across three phases of the business cycle
    Author: Ashley, Richard A.; Verbrugge, Randal
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 19, 09 (May 2019)
    Subjects: overheating; recession gap; persistence dependence; NAIRU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Turkey
    Author: Gökcü, Mert
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Head Office, Structural Economic Research Department, Ankara, Turkey

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    Series: Working paper / Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ; no: 21, 39 (December 2021)
    Subjects: Potential Output; Output Gap; NAIRU; Multivariate Filter; Bayesian Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine
    Author: Vdovychenko, Artem
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department, Geneva, Switzerland

    In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment... more

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    In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/278192
    Series: Working paper series / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department ; no. HEIDWP2022, 21
    Subjects: Phillips curve; unemployment; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Beveridge curve
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The OECD potential output estimation methodology
    Author: Chalaux, Thomas; Guillemette, Yvan
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  OECD, Paris, France

    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting... more

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    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: OECD Economics Department working papers ; no. 1563
    Subjects: Economics; Potential output; potential growth; labour efficiency; output gap; NAIRU; capital stock
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Long memory in Turkish unemployment rates
    Author: Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Tansel, Aysıt
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Maastricht

    In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of... more

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    In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/169356
    Series: GLO discussion paper ; no. 123
    Subjects: Unemployment; hysteresis; NAIRU; fractional integration; Turkey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  11. Spatial aggregation bias in wage curve and NAWRU estimation
    Author: Persyn, Damiaan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  European Commission, Seville

    I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to... more

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    I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to estimating at the underlying regional level. The distribution of regional unemployment rates within countries over time is not mean-scaled. Regions with low unemployment rates are the main drivers of changes in aggregate unemployment. The steepness of a log-linear wage curve in regions with low unemployment dominates at the aggregate (country) level, overestimating wage pressure. Lagged wages are important in explaining wage growth, together with unemployment. This suggests that a wage curve fits the data better than the assumption of a NAWRU or long run natural rate of unemployment. With regional wage curves, spatial aggregation bias can produce aggregate data that resembles such a natural rate of unemployment, however.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/227682
    Series: JRC working papers on territorial modelling and analysis ; no 2020, 02
    Subjects: Region; Growth; Unemployment; NAWRU; NAIRU; Wage Curve; Labor markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten)
  12. Estimating the NAIRU in Australia
    Author: Ruberl, Heather; Ball, Meika; Lucas, Larissa; Williamson, Thomas
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  The Treasury, Canberra

    The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be estimated using... more

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    The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be estimated using statistical models. This is most commonly undertaken within the Phillips curve framework, which estimates the relationship between price or wage growth and unemployment. This is a key equation for understanding economic conditions, and is used to forecast wages growth at the Australian Treasury. Australia's NAIRU was previously thought to be around 5 per cent. We have considered a range of alternative specifications for estimating the wage Phillips curve, and this working paper details Treasury's updated model. We consider specification choices that include: updating the measures of inflation and inflation expectations; the introduction of a productivity gap term; the inclusion of a structural break to allow for the flattening of the Phillips curve; and other changes to bring the model more in-line with the recent literature. The updated model produces estimates of the NAIRU between 4.5 and 5 per cent over the last few years immediately prior to the COVID-19 recession.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781925832273
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    hdl: 10419/251330
    Series: Treasury working paper / Australian Government, The Treasury ; 2021, 01
    Subjects: NAIRU; Phillips Curve; Inflationary Expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Climate hysteresis and monetary policy
    Author: Panton, Augustus J.
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2020, 76 (August 2020)
    Subjects: Potential output; output gaps; NAIRU; physical climate risks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Long-term unemployment, hysteresis and missing deflation
    reconsidering the New-Keynesian approach by means of an 'old' Phillips curve
    Author: Romaniello, Davide
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Language: English
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    Series: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 880 (maggio 2022)
    Subjects: Hysteresis; long-term unemployment; NAIRU; conflict-claim inflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Full employment
    a survey of theory, empirics and policies
    Author: Lichtenberger, Andreas; Heimberger, Philipp; Arsenev, Aleksandr; Gökten, Meryem
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Wien

    The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional... more

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    The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding definitions, theoretical perspectives, empirical measurements, policy debates and real-world policy programs. We distinguish: concepts of full employment that provide systematic links to price stability; minimum unemployment and maximum employment approaches; and the unfilled vacancies perspective. Furthermore, we provide and discuss different empirical measures of full employment for selected economies, and we propose a new full employment typology. Based on our survey findings, we argue that conceptualising and measuring full employment is not merely a technical task, but inevitably involves normative judgments. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.

     
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    hdl: 10419/299367
    Series: Working paper / wiiw ; 249 (June 2024)
    Subjects: full employment; NAIRU; Beveridge curve; employment; welfare states; job guarantee
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)
  16. The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
    Author: Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, Claudia; Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
    Published: February 2022
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: BIS working papers ; no 1005
    Subjects: Unemployment; Informality; NAIRU; Business cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
    Author: Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, Claudia; Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  Banco de México, [Ciudad de México, México]

    The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not... more

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    The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not depict labor slack properly, as it has the wage flexibility needed to incorporate formal workers that cannot find a formal job. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor market slack indicators follow similar patterns over time. However, the slack estimated with the indicator that includes informality seems to predict inflationary pressures more accurately when the unemployment gap is close to zero.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240698
    Series: Working papers / Banco de México ; no 2020, 09
    Subjects: Unemployment; Informality; NAIRU; Business cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The natural rate of unemployment in Estonia: empirical determinants and a new semi-structuralmodel
    Author: Kulikov, Dmitry; Reigl, Nicolas
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Eesti Pank, Tallinn

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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789916710104
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    Series: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 2023, 6
    Subjects: natural rate of unemployment; unemployment gap; NAIRU; panel data; semi-structural modelling; model averaging
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries
    Author: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would... more

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    We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We show that the natural rate closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2020. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low - often extremely low - response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat Phillips curve is an illusion caused by assuming that the natural rate of unemployment has little or no movement during recoveries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282708
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16581
    Subjects: business cycle; recovery; unemployment; recession; monetary policy; natural rate of unemployment; inflation anchor; NAIRU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The downward glide of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries could explain flat phillips curves
    Author: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Published: 21 October 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Series: Array ; DP18544
    Subjects: usiness Cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession; Monetary Policy; NaturalRate of Unemployment; Inflation Anchor; NAIRU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The NAIRU and the extent of the low-pay sector
    Author: Garz, Marcel
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    The creation of jobs in the low-pay sector is considered to be an approach to reduce unemployment, especially with respect to low-skilled workers. By now, the expansion of the German low-wage sector over the last 15 years is empirically confirmed,... more

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    The creation of jobs in the low-pay sector is considered to be an approach to reduce unemployment, especially with respect to low-skilled workers. By now, the expansion of the German low-wage sector over the last 15 years is empirically confirmed, which indicates a successful implementation of corresponding recommendations from policy advisers. In order to evaluate the effects of an increasing low-wage sector on unemployment, the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is used. In a first step, the unobservable, exogenous NAIRU is estimated for Germany in a state space setting. In a second step, data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) is used to calculate a time series of the extent of the low-pay sector. Finally, by treating the NAIRU as the dependent variable, the impact of the low-wage share is estimated within an error correction framework. According to the proponents of the low-pay expansion, there should be a negative relationship between the NAIRU and the share of the low-wage sector. This hypothesis is rejected empirically. Indeed, for the time after the German reunification, cointegration is found between both variables suggesting a slightly positive relationship. Die Schaffung zusätzlicher Jobs im Niedriglohnbereich gilt als Instrument zur Senkung von Arbeitslosigkeit, insbesondere in Hinsicht auf gering qualifizierte Arbeitnehmer. Die Ausweitung des Niedriglohnsektors der vergangenen 15 Jahre ist mittlerweile empirisch bestätigt, was auf eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung entsprechender Empfehlungen von Arbeitsmarktexperten hindeutet. Um die Beschäftigungseffekte eines wachsenden Niedriglohnsektors zu analysieren, wird in dieser Arbeit auf das Konzept der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenrate (NAIRU) zurückgegriffen. In einen ersten Schritt wird die unbeobachtbare NAIRU für Deutschland per Zustandsraummodell geschätzt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) verwendet, um eine Zeitreihe mit dem Ausmaß des Niedriglohnsektors zu berechnen. Schließlich wird der Einfluss der Größe des Niedriglohnbereichs auf die NAIRU mittels Fehlerkorrekturmodell geschätzt. Nach den Befürwortern der Niedriglohnexpansion sollte zwischen beiden Variablen ein negativer Zusammenhang bestehen. Diese Hypothese kann empirisch nicht bestätigt werden. Stattdessen weisen die Daten für die Zeit nach der Deutschen Wiedervereinigung auf einen kointegrierten, leicht positiven Zusammenhang hin.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/105936
    Series: Working paper / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie ; 12/2010
    Subjects: Niedriglohn; Wirkungsanalyse; Arbeitslosigkeit; Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote; Kointegration; Schätzung; Deutschland; NAIRU; low-wage; Kalman filter; error correction; cointegration
    Scope: Online-Ressource (34 S.), graph. Darst.
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    Zsfassung in dt. Sprache
  22. Unemployment in the European Union
    A dynamic reappraisal
    Author: Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J.
    Published: 2009
    Publisher:  ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel

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  23. The OECD potential output estimation methodology
    Author: Chalaux, Thomas; Guillemette, Yvan
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  OECD, Paris, France

    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting... more

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    This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Series: OECD Economics Department working papers ; no. 1563
    Subjects: Economics; Potential output; potential growth; labour efficiency; output gap; NAIRU; capital stock
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis
    Author: Jump, Robert Calvert; Stockhammer, Engelbert
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run... more

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    The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate demand shocks. While policy makers have warned of the risk of hysteresis since the 2008 financial crash, hysteresis effects are not incorporated into the macroeconometric models used by policy making institutions. This paper presents Bayesian estimates of hysteresis effects using unobserved components models of the type used by the European Commission and OECD. We demonstrate that the posterior probability of the natural rate hypothesis holding in Germany, France, and the UK is very low, lending empirical support to the hysteresis hypothesis. We suggest that the models used by the European Commission and OECD should be amended to reflect policy makers' views on hysteresis.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213400
    Series: FMM working paper ; Nr. 45(April, 2019)
    Subjects: Unemployment; Hysteresis; NAIRU; Business Cycles
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  25. The European Commission's new NAIRU
    does it deliver?
    Author: Gechert, Sebastian; Rietzler, Katja; Tober, Silke
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of... more

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    The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors, we run counterfactual simulations applying one-standard deviation shocks to actual unemployment and to the structural variable - real unit labor costs. We find that the NAIRU in its new specification is still largely determined by actual unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation-stable economic activity and the accuracy of structural deficit figures. Die NAIRU ist ein zentraler Bestandteil des Produktionspotenzials und hat damit einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf Schätzungen der Produktionslücke. Im Mai 2014 hat die Europäische Kommission die Spezifikation ihrer NAIRU-Schätzung für mehrere Länder geändert und ihre NAIRU-Schätzwerte gesenkt - im Fall Spaniens von 26,6 % auf 20,7 % für das Jahr 2015. Um zu prüfen, ob die neue NAIRU eher von der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosigkeit oder von strukturellen Faktoren abhängt, führen wir kontrafaktische Simulationen durch, bei denen die tatsächliche Arbeitslosigkeit und die strukturelle Variable - die realen Lohnstückkosten - jeweils einem Schock im Umfang von einer Standardabweichung unterworfen werden. Wir gelangen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die NAIRU auch in ihrer neuen Spezifikation großenteils durch die tatsächliche Arbeitslosigkeit bestimmt wird. Dies wirft Zweifel an der Interpretation der Produktionspotenzialschätzungen als Barriere für eine kräftigere inflationsstabile Wirtschaftsaktivität und an der Genauigkeit der strukturellen Defizitwerte auf.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/106008
    Series: Working paper / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie ; 142
    Subjects: NAIRU; Kalman filter; output gap; euro area; structural deficit
    Scope: Online-Ressource (7 S.), graph. Darst.
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    Zsfassung in dt. Sprache