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Ergebnisse für "Tobias Schmidt"

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  1. Carbon pricing for low-carbon investment
    executive summary
    Autor*in: Neuhoff, Karsten
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Climate Policy Initiative, Berlin

    The EU European Trading Scheme (EU ETS) started operating in 2005 and was established with the EU Climate Package of 2008 as a permanent mechanism for Europe. Now in its second phase, policymakers are evaluating its success to date and considering... mehr

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    The EU European Trading Scheme (EU ETS) started operating in 2005 and was established with the EU Climate Package of 2008 as a permanent mechanism for Europe. Now in its second phase, policymakers are evaluating its success to date and considering next steps for its evolution. With the ultimate goal of a low-carbon economy, key questions have been: does the ETS facilitate a shift from carbon-intensive investments to low-carbon investments? What improvements can policymakers apply to accelerate low-carbon investment? To answer these questions, Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and Climate Strategies conducted a multiinstitute analytical project, "Carbon Pricing for Low-Carbon Investment" from February to December 2010. Led by CPI Berlin director Karsten Neuhoff, participating organizations included London School of Economics, DIW Berlin, ETH-Zürich, ISI-Fraunhofer, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and University of Erlangen-Nürnberg. Studies in the project include the following: Climate Change, Investment and Carbon Markets and Prices - Evidence from Interviewing Managers Ralf Martin (LSE), Mirabelle Muûls (Imperial College) and Ulrich Wagner (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) Relative Importance of Different Climate Policy Elements for Corporate Climate Innovation Activities: Findings for the Power Sector Karoline Rogge (ISI Fraunhofer), Tobias Schmidt (ETH Zürich) and Malte Schneider (ETH Zürich) The Role of CDM Post-2012 Alexander Vasa (CPI) and Karsten Neuhoff (CPI) Emissions Trading Schemes under IFRS - Towards a true and fair view Madlen Haupt (CPI) and Roland Ismer (University of Erlangen-Nürnberg) This policy summary describes key findings and implications from the studies included in the project and the workshops hosted in Berlin and Paris. Papers from the studies can be found at www.climatepolicyinitiative.org and www.climatestrategies.org. -- Carbon Pricing

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/65902
    Schlagworte: Emissionshandel; Preis; Investition; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Umweltverträglichkeit; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 9 S., 363,08 KB), graph. Darst.
  2. An increasing sense of urgency
    the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) to 30 June 2022 - a research note
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Schmidt, Tobias; Hornig, Nico
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2003/41027
    hdl: 10419/263920
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0, August 2022
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 12 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: latent Dirichlet allocation; inflation; expectations; narratives; text mining; computational methods; behavioral economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The inflation attention cycle
    updating the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) up to February 2023 - a research note
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Schmidt, Tobias; Rieger, Jonas; Hornig, Nico; Hufnagel, Lena Marie
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2003/41298
    hdl: 10419/270752
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 13 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Inflation; expectations; narratives; latent Dirichlet allocation; text mining; computational methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 8 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  Charles University, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Prague

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    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9788073435523; 9788073446659
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / CERGE-EI ; 745
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Experienced segregation
    Autor*in: Athey, Susan; Ferguson, Billy A.; Gentzkow, Matthew Aaron; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27572
    Schlagworte: Soziale Beziehungen; Messung
    Umfang: 54 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  6. Experienced segregation
    Autor*in: Athey, Susan; Ferguson, Billy A.; Gentzkow, Matthew Aaron; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), Stanford, CA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) ; no. 20, 034 (July, 2020)
    Schlagworte: Segregation; Navigationssystem; Mobilkommunikation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Auch NBER working paper No. 27572: www.nber.org/papers/w27572
  7. Pressure is high - and rising
    the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) to 30 April 2022 - a research note analysis
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Schmidt, Tobias; Hornig, Nico
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2003/40919
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 10 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: inflation; expectations; narratives; latent Dirichlet allocation; text mining; computational methods; behavioral economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Consumer cash usage
    a cross-country comparison with payment diary survey data
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  DNB, Amsterdam

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    Schriftenreihe: DNB working paper ; 422
    Schlagworte: Zahlungsverkehr; Geldnachfrage; Bargeld; Eurozone; USA; Kanada; Australien; Bank notes; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial services; E-money
    Umfang: 50 S., graph. Darst.
  9. Two for the price of one?
    on additionality effects of R&D subsidies ; a comparison between Flanders and Germany
    Erschienen: Aug. 2006
    Verlag:  Katholieke Univ. Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Applied Economics, Leuven

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    Schriftenreihe: MSI ; 0607
    Schlagworte: Forschungsfinanzierung; Industrieforschung; Verdrängungseffekt; Schätzung; Flandern; Belgien; Vergleich; Deutschland
    Umfang: Online-Ressource, 31 S., Text
  10. To be or not to be at the BOP
    a one-north-many-souths model with subsistence and luxury goods
    Autor*in: Zon, Adriaan van; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: 2008
    Verlag:  UNU-MERIT, Maastricht

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / United Nations University, UNU-MERIT ; 2008,046
    Schlagworte: Räumliche Verteilung; Luxusgüter; Grundbedürfnisse
    Umfang: 51 S., graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 48
  11. The use of knowledge management by innovators
    empirical evidence for Germany
    Erschienen: 08 Jan. 2008
    Verlag:  Univ. [u.a.], Jena

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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/25686
    Schriftenreihe: Jena economic research papers ; 2008,002
    Schlagworte: Wissensmanagement; Wissenstransfer; Innovation; Industrieforschung; Deutschland
    Umfang: Online-Ressource, 26 S., Text, graph. Darst.
  12. Cross-country differences in homeownership
    a cultural phenomenon?
    Autor*in: Huber, Stefanie J.; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 40% in Switzerland to 80% in Spain. This paper investigates whether culture is a driving factor of the homeownership decision,... mehr

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    Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 40% in Switzerland to 80% in Spain. This paper investigates whether culture is a driving factor of the homeownership decision, and could thus explain part of the cross-country differences in homeownership rates. To isolate the effect of cultural preferences regarding homeownership from the impact of institutions and economic factors, we investigate the homeownership decisions of second-generation immigrants in the United States between 1994 and 2017. Our findings indicate that cultural preferences for homeownership are persistent, transmitted between generations, and substantially influence the rent-versus-buy decision.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957296399
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206397
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2019, 40
    Schlagworte: Housing decisions; second generationmigrants; epidemological approach
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Nevertheless, they persist
    cross-country differences in homeownership behavior
    Autor*in: Huber, Stefanie J.; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 44% in Switzerland to 83% in Spain. This paper investigates whether cultures-defined as behavioral attitudes passed across... mehr

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    Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and persistent over time, with homeownership rates ranging from 44% in Switzerland to 83% in Spain. This paper investigates whether cultures-defined as behavioral attitudes passed across generations-may value homeownership differently, and could thus be a driving demand factor of the homeownership decision. To isolate the effect of cultural preferences regarding homeownership from the impact of other economic factors, we investigate second-generation immigrants' homeownership decisions in the United States between 1994 and 2017. Our findings indicate that cultural preferences for homeownership are persistent, transmitted between generations, and substantially influence the rent-versus-buy decision.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263929
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version: November 26, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2022, 009
    Schlagworte: Housing Markets; Homeownership Rates; Cross-Country Heterogeneity; Cultural Transmission; Household Housing decisions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Knowledge flows and R&D Co-operation
    Autor*in: Schmidt, Tobias

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
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    Schlagworte: Industrieforschung; Forschungskooperation; Forschungstransfer; Know-how-Transfer; Spill-over-Effekt; Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Industrieforschung; (stw)Forschungskooperation; (stw)Wissenstransfer; (stw)Spillover-Effekt; (stw)Theorie; (stw)Deutschland; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: XXI, 263 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
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    Jena, Univ., Diss., 2007 (Nicht für den Austausch)
  15. Consumer cash usage
    a cross-country comparison with payment diary survey data
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154118
    QB-AR-14-059-EN-N
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 1685
    Schlagworte: Zahlungsverkehr; Geldnachfrage; Bargeld; Eurozone; USA; Kanada; Australien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (51 S.), graph. Darst.
  16. The standard portfolio choice problem in Germany
    Autor*in: Huck, Steffen; Schmidt, Tobias; Weizsäcker, Georg
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    We study an investment experiment conducted with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about... mehr

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    We study an investment experiment conducted with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about stock market returns and exhibit desirable external validity: they predict real-life stock market participation. But many households do not significantly react to an exogenous increase in the risky asset's return. The data analysis and a series of additional laboratory experiments suggest that task complexity decreases the responsiveness to incentives. Modifying the safe asset's return has a larger effect than modifying the risky asset's return.

     
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    hdl: 10419/113774
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 5441
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (21 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. Consumer cash usage
    a cross-country comparison with payment diary survey data
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Oesterr. Nationalbank, Wien

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    hdl: 10419/264784
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / ÖNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank ; 192
    Schlagworte: Zahlungsverkehr; Geldnachfrage; Bargeld; Eurozone; USA; Kanada; Australien; Money Demand; Payment Systems; Harmonization
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 50 S.), graph. Darst.
  18. The standard portfolio choice problem in Germany
    Autor*in: Huck, Steffen; Schmidt, Tobias; Weizsäcker, Georg
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  WZB, Berlin

    We study an investment experiment conducted with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about... mehr

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    We study an investment experiment conducted with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about stock market returns and exhibit desirable external validity: they predict real-life stock market participation. But many households do not significantly react to an exogenous increase in the risky asset's return. The data analysis and analogous laboratory experiments suggest that task complexity decreases the responsiveness to incentives. Modifying the return of the (simpler) safe asset has a larger effect.

     
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    hdl: 10419/103211
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Abteilung Ökonomik des Wandels : Schwerpunkt Markt und Entscheidung ; SP II 2014-308
    Schlagworte: Stock market expectations; stock market participation; portfolio choice; artefactual field experiment; financial literacy
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([1], 56 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. Knowledge flows and R&D co-operation
    firm-level evidence from Germany
    Erschienen: 2005
    Verlag:  ZEW Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim

    This paper analyzes the determinants of R&D co-operation among German manufacturing firms. Using firm level data from the Third Community Innovation Survey from Germany, we focus on the role of spillovers in explaining R&D cooperation. We also... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the determinants of R&D co-operation among German manufacturing firms. Using firm level data from the Third Community Innovation Survey from Germany, we focus on the role of spillovers in explaining R&D cooperation. We also investigate firms' decisions to cooperate with research institutions or with suppliers and customers. Implementing a two-step estimation procedure, we find a positive effect of knowledge flows on the probability of R&D co-operation in most model specifications. Additionally, we show that firms with high intramural R&D budgets are more likely to cooperate with universities and research institutions than with suppliers and customers.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; 05-22 [rev.]
    Schlagworte: Industrieforschung; Forschungskooperation; Wissenstransfer; Spillover-Effekt; Deutschland
    Umfang: Online-Ressource, 29 S., Text
  20. You'll never talk alone
    what media narratives on European reforms reveal about a polity in the making
    Autor*in: Mourlon-Druol, Emmanuel; Müller, Henrik; Porcaro, Giuseppe; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: 6 December 2022
    Verlag:  Bruegel, Brussels

    This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles... mehr

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    This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles published in these three newspapers. We used topic modelling to identify latent topics across articles. Based on this database, we then addressed four research questions and found: a relative degree of synchronisation of reform debates across the three countries; comparable reporting patterns, especially around the main crises; a greater degree of direction of the debate towards European issues over national issues in Germany than in France and Italy; and the tentative emergence of a shared narrative about crises. Finally, we highlight that bringing conflict and contestation back into European discussions may help stimulate wider interest in European matters.

     
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    hdl: 10419/274178
    Schriftenreihe: Bruegel working paper ; 2022, issue 19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Mellina, Sathya; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Since the financial crisis, central banks have stressed the role of trust and communication in connection with their objectives and strategies for aligning the public's inflation expectations with their own and, consequently, improving the... mehr

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    Since the financial crisis, central banks have stressed the role of trust and communication in connection with their objectives and strategies for aligning the public's inflation expectations with their own and, consequently, improving the effectiveness of monetary policy. Assessing how much the general public knows about and trust in central banks and how these factors influence inflation expectations is thus important. We shed light on these issues by relying on a representative survey conducted among individuals living in Germany. Although most respondents assume that they have a good or very good knowledge of the ECB and the Bundesbank, only about 20 percent cite "price stability" when asked directly about the two central banks' objectives. Knowledge of the ECB's and the Bundesbank's goals act as significant drivers of trust in these institutions, however. And greater trust in the ECB and Bundesbank, in turn, lowers individuals' inflation expectations. More specifically, having greater trust increases the probability of expecting unchanged prices and decreases the likelihood of expecting either slightly or sharply rising prices over the medium term. Interestingly, awareness of price stability as the primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy does not seem to affect inflation expectations directly once we control for trust, individuals' socio-demographic characteristics and their interest in economic topics. Our study indicates that central banks can influence households' inflation expectations through building trust and educating the public about their targets.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957294937
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/182025
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2018, 32
    Schlagworte: Inflation Expectations; Trust; Economic Knowledge; Central Bank Communications; European Central Bank; Deutsche Bundesbank
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  22. Household bargaining, pension contributions and retirement expectations
    evidence from the German Panel on Household Finances
    Autor*in: Fernandes, Inês; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    In this paper, we study the relationship between intrahousehold bargaining styles, bar-gaining power and individual pension contributions and expected standard of living in retirement, using microdata from the German Panel on Household Finances... mehr

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    In this paper, we study the relationship between intrahousehold bargaining styles, bar-gaining power and individual pension contributions and expected standard of living in retirement, using microdata from the German Panel on Household Finances (PHF) survey. The paper builds on a theoretical framework that predicts non-cooperative (cooperative) households to have lower (higher) expected standards of living in retirement, due to the uncertainty regarding intrahousehold resource sharing. The empirical results suggest that household bargaining is significantly correlated with individual retirement-related behaviour and expectations, with gender differences. Cooperative partners expect higher standards of living in retirement, relative to non-cooperative ones, because they may insure againstold-age poverty by pooling and redistributing personal and household resources amongst each other in retirement. Finally, our data indicate that intracouple information sharing and altruism may mediate the relationship between household decision-making and individual contributions to private pension plans, especially in non-cooperative households.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957298522
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/247682
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2021, 44
    Schlagworte: Intrahousehold bargaining; Intrahousehold information sharing; Gender; House-hold finance; Private pension plans; Retirement expectations; Altruism; Panel on HouseholdFinances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten)
  23. The standard portfolio choice problem in Germany
    Autor*in: Breunig, Christoph; Huck, Steffen; Schmidt, Tobias; Weizsäcker, Georg
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    We study an investment experiment with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about stock... mehr

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    We study an investment experiment with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about stock market returns and exhibit desirable external validity at least in one respect: they predict real-life stock market participation. But many households are unresponsive to an exogenous increase in the risky asset's return. The data analysis and a series of additional laboratory experiments suggest that task complexity decreases the responsiveness to incentives. Modifying the safe asset's return has a larger effect on behaviour than modifying the risky asset's return.

     
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    hdl: 10419/208071
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 171 (July 30, 2019)
    Schlagworte: Anlageverhalten; Portfolio-Management; Risiko-Ertrags-Verhältnis; Wahrnehmung; Privater Haushalt; Deutschland; Stock market expectations; stock market participation; portfolio choice; financial literacy; complexity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 122 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
    Autor*in: Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction... mehr

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    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on inflation expectations. We find that consumers who were locally more exposed to COVID-19 cases report higher inflation expectations. ‘e relationship between the virus spread and inflation expectations is ampli€ed if respondents live in high unemployment regions. We explain our findings through an information and experience channel. Information about the pandemic and its effects played an important role during the €rst wave of the pandemic. However, when a‹ention to information diminishes, experience matters most. We document that negative personal (how severely the respondent was affected financially) and local experience (how severely the district was affected by COVID-19) are associated with higher inƒation expectations and more pessimistic views with regard to unemployment, interest rates, house prices and the intention to spend. Our €ndings show that it is important to consider regional disparities when examining individual belief formation.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957299338
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269863
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 16.01.2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 02
    Schlagworte: COVID-19 pandemic; inflationexpectations; inflation disagreement; perceived severity of COVID-19; personal experience
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation... mehr

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    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24 th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957299345
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    hdl: 10419/269864
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 03
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen