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Ergebnisse für "Tobias Schmidt"

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  1. The inflation attention cycle
    updating the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) up to February 2023 - a research note
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Schmidt, Tobias; Rieger, Jonas; Hornig, Nico; Hufnagel, Lena Marie
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 737
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2003/41298
    hdl: 10419/270752
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 13 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Inflation; expectations; narratives; latent Dirichlet allocation; text mining; computational methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 8 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  Charles University, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Prague

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9788073435523; 9788073446659
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / CERGE-EI ; 745
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
    Autor*in: Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction... mehr

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on inflation expectations. We find that consumers who were locally more exposed to COVID-19 cases report higher inflation expectations. ‘e relationship between the virus spread and inflation expectations is ampli€ed if respondents live in high unemployment regions. We explain our findings through an information and experience channel. Information about the pandemic and its effects played an important role during the €rst wave of the pandemic. However, when a‹ention to information diminishes, experience matters most. We document that negative personal (how severely the respondent was affected financially) and local experience (how severely the district was affected by COVID-19) are associated with higher inƒation expectations and more pessimistic views with regard to unemployment, interest rates, house prices and the intention to spend. Our €ndings show that it is important to consider regional disparities when examining individual belief formation.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299338
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269863
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 16.01.2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 02
    Schlagworte: COVID-19 pandemic; inflationexpectations; inflation disagreement; perceived severity of COVID-19; personal experience
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 12
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    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24 th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299345
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269864
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 03
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Huber, Stefanie J.; Minina, Daria; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    This paper documents a strong relationship between households’ perceptions about inflation over the past 12 months and households’ short- and long-term expectations about future inflation. This relationship is strong during periods of high-inflation... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 12
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    This paper documents a strong relationship between households’ perceptions about inflation over the past 12 months and households’ short- and long-term expectations about future inflation. This relationship is strong during periods of high-inflation but even stronger during low-inflation periods. We establish a causal relationship by implementing a randomized information provision experiment in a large and representative survey to generate an exogenous variation in inflation perceptions. Our results show that household perceptions about past inflation drive their expectations about future inflation rates. The strength of the pass-through from perceptions to expectations varies across socioeconomic groups. We identify two critical moderating factors for this heterogeneity; differences in individual uncertainty about future inflation and information acquisition. Further, we show that the large majority of households rely on their shopping experience when forming their perceptions about past inflation and pay particular attention to food and fuel prices. The shopping experience affects inflation expectations indirectly - through perceptions.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299482
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273729
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version: June 19, 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 17
    Schlagworte: inflation dynamics; expectations; perceptions; uncertainty; household finance; monetary policy; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Inflation perception and the formation of inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Schmidt, Torsten; Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Schmidt, Tobias; Jentsch, Carsten
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany

    In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and... mehr

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    DS 10
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    In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic trends, thereby providing new insights into the dynamics of inflation perception over time. Methodically, the IPI makes use of RollingLDA, a dynamic topic modeling approach refining the rather static original LDA to allow for changes in the model’s structure over time. We then use time series for the overall inflation perception indicator as well as for specific topics to analyze time-varying correlations with time series for inflation expectations of firms and households. Our results reveal that the link between reporting about inflation and changes in inflation expectations is time-dependent. During periods of intensive newspaper coverage of inflation developments, a correlation with inflation expectations emerges that does not exist at other times. Such correlations are evident after the introduction of the euro, during the financial crisis and during the recent energy price shock. In diesem Papier stellen wir einen neuen Indikator zur Messung der Inflationswahrnehmung in den Medien vor. Unser Inflationswahrnehmungsindikator (IPI) für Deutschland basiert auf einem Korpus von drei Millionen Artikeln, die zwischen Januar 2001 und November 2022 in großen Tageszeitungen veröffentlicht wurden. Er ist so konzipiert, thematische Trends zu erkennen und damit neue Einblicke in die Dynamik der Inflationswahrnehmung im Laufe der Zeit zu geben. Methodisch nutzt das IPI die RollingLDA, einen dynamischen Ansatz zur Themenmodellierung, der die eher statische ursprüngliche LDA verfeinert, um Veränderungen in der Struktur des Modells im Laufe der Zeit zu berücksichtigen. Anschließend werden Zeitreihen für den Gesamtindikator der Inflationswahrnehmung sowie für spezifische Themen verwendet, um zeitlich veränderliche Korrelationen mit Zeitreihen für Inflationserwartungen von Unternehmen und Haushalten zu analysieren. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen der Berichterstattung über die Inflation und den Veränderungen der Inflationserwartungen zeitabhängig ist. In Zeiten intensiver Zeitungsberichterstattung über die Inflationsentwicklung zeigt sich eine Korrelation mit den Inflationserwartungen, die zu anderen Zeiten nicht besteht. Solche Korrelationen sind nach der Einführung des Euro, während der Finanzkrise und während des jüngsten Energiepreisschocks zu beobachten.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783969731918
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273551
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #1025
    Schlagworte: Inflation; perception; expectations; media; attention cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen