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  1. COVID-19 and public support for the euro
    Autor*in: Roth, Felix; Jonung, Lars; Most, Aisada
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund

    The COVID-19 pandemic had disastrous effects on health and economic activity worldwide, including in the Euro Area. The application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic had disastrous effects on health and economic activity worldwide, including in the Euro Area. The application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary fiscal and monetary response. Using a uniquely large macro database, this paper examines the effects of the pandemic and the ensuing economic policies on public support for the common currency, the euro, as measured by the Eurobarometersurvey. It findsthat public support for the euro reached historically high levels in a majority of the 19 Euro Area member states in the midst of the pandemic. This finding suggests that the expansionary fiscal policies initiated at the EU level significantly contributed to this outcome, while the monetary measures taken by the European Central Bank did not have a similar effect.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2023, 1
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; lockdowns; support for the euro; unemployment; inflation; monetary policies; fiscal policies; EU
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
    Autor*in: Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the... mehr

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    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between January 1985 and October 2022 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals' fears of unemployment which predict subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use industrial firm's expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of what happens to unemployment three months later. Using our preferred model specification, we present out-of-sample predictions based on replications from 1,000 random samples. These track actual movements in unemployment rates closely over a period in which there were two major recessions and unemployment shifted by a factor of two.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272532
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15905
    Schlagworte: unemployment; fear; business sentiment; expectations; forecasting recession; COVID-19; supply shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Public-sector employment, wages and education decisions
    Autor*in: Chassamboulli, Andri; Gomes, Pedro
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We set up a search and matching model with a private and a public sector to understand the effects of employment and wage policies in the public sector on unemployment and education decisions. The effects on the educational composition of the labor... mehr

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    We set up a search and matching model with a private and a public sector to understand the effects of employment and wage policies in the public sector on unemployment and education decisions. The effects on the educational composition of the labor force depend crucially on the structure of the labor market. An increase of skilled public-sector wages has a small positive impact on educational composition and larger negative impact on the private employment of skilled workers, if the two sectors are segmented. If there are movements across the two sectors, it has large positive impacts on education and on skilled private employment. We highlight the usefulness of the model for policymakers by calculating the value of public-sector job security for skilled and unskilled workers.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16001
    Schlagworte: public-sector employment; public-sector wages; unemployment; skilled workers; education decision; public-sector job security premium
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Minimum wages, wage dispersion and financial constraints in firms
    Autor*in: Arabzadeh, Hamzeh; Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Taskin, Ahmet
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper studies how minimum wages affect the wage distribution if firms face financial constraints. Using German employer-employee data and firm balance sheets, we document that the within-firm wage dispersion decreases more with higher minimum... mehr

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    This paper studies how minimum wages affect the wage distribution if firms face financial constraints. Using German employer-employee data and firm balance sheets, we document that the within-firm wage dispersion decreases more with higher minimum wages when firms are financially constrained. We introduce financial frictions into a search and matching labor market model with stochastic job matching, imperfect information, and endogenous effort. In line with the empirical literature, the model predicts that a higher minimum wage reduces hirings and separations. Firms become more selective such that their employment and wage dispersion fall. If effort increases strongly, firms may increase employment at the expense of higher wage dispersion. Financially constrained firms are more selective and reward effort less. As a result, within-firm wage dispersion and employment in these firms fall more with the minimum wage.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282582
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16455
    Schlagworte: minimum wage; wage dispersion; financial frictions; search and matching; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: evidence from norwegian households
    Autor*in: Fagereng, Andreas; Onshuus, Helene; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
    Erschienen: 24 October 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18550
    Schlagworte: unemployment; household finance; consumption expenditure; con-sumption smoothing; household heterogeneity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Devaluation, exports, and recovery from the great depression
    Autor*in: Lennard, Jason; Paker, Meredith
    Erschienen: 20 December 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18702
    Schlagworte: exports; gold standard; interwar Britain; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Resilience to automation
    the role of task overlap for job finding
    Autor*in: Dabed, Diego; Genz, Sabrina; Rademakers, Emilie
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  U.S.E. Research Institute, Utrecht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: U.S.E. working paper series ; nr: 23, 12
    Schlagworte: automation; unemployment; occupational reallocation; task overlap; job network
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Unemployment, immigration, and populism
    Autor*in: Chen, Shuai
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper examines how unemployment and cultural anxiety have triggered different dimensions of the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit the Great Recession (GR) and the 2014 Northern Triangle immigrant influx (IM) to... mehr

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    This paper examines how unemployment and cultural anxiety have triggered different dimensions of the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit the Great Recession (GR) and the 2014 Northern Triangle immigrant influx (IM) to investigate the effects of recent unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism. I find that recent unemployment during GR, rather than existing unemployment from before GR, increased the probability of attitudes against wealthy elites by 15 percentage points (PP). Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic unfairness as a mechanism through which recent unemployment drove left-wing populism. However, cultural anxiety rather than economic distress more likely led to the over 10 PP rise in the probability of anti-immigration attitudes during IM. These attitudes are related to right-wing populism. This study intentionally links distinct economic and cultural driving forces, respectively, to different types of populism, while still accounting for their potential interaction effects. This strategy facilitates disentangling the economic and cultural triggers of the currently surging populism.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282769
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16642
    Schlagworte: populism; unemployment; immigration; Great Recession
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Job loss, credit card loans, and the college-persistence decision of US working students
    Autor*in: Wu, Pinghui; McMillan, Lucy
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston], [Boston]

    This study assesses the impact of involuntary job loss on college persistence by leveraging different job-loss timings relative to a student's college enrollment decision. We find that job loss increases the probability that a working college student... mehr

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    This study assesses the impact of involuntary job loss on college persistence by leveraging different job-loss timings relative to a student's college enrollment decision. We find that job loss increases the probability that a working college student leaves college before attaining a degree, but access to short-term credit through credit card loans buffers this liquidity effect. By restricting credit supply to college students, the CARD Act of 2009 has inadvertently inhibited the ability of liquidity-constrained students to remain in college when their earnings unexpectedly fall, resulting in a stronger liquidity effect of job loss on college persistence over the last decade.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284096
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 23, 19
    Schlagworte: Credit card loans; unemployment; college persistence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Devaluation, exports, and recovery from the Great Depression
    Autor*in: Lennard, Jason; Paker, Meredith M.
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2024, 03]
    Schlagworte: exports; gold standard; interwar Britain; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 201 Seiten)
  11. Predicting re-employment
    machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  IFAU, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, Uppsala

    We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6.... mehr

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    We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider how combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported (and to a lesser extent caseworker) assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm.

     
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    hdl: 10419/297002
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy ; 2023, 22
    Schlagworte: unemployment; expectations; prediction; random forest; unemployment insurance; information
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The shifting reasons for Beveridge-curve shifts
    Autor*in: Barlevy, Gadi; Hobijn, Bart; Faberman, R. Jason; Şahin, Ayşegül
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and... mehr

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    We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282644
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16517
    Schlagworte: Beveridge curve; inflation; job openings; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Revisiting Okun's law
    testing for asymmetric adjustment in Chile
    Autor*in: Navarro Gonzalez, Claudio
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  The University of Manchester Global Development Institute, Manchester

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    ISBN: 9781912607273
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Global Development Institute ; 2023, 069 (November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Asymmetry; Chile; gender gap; Okun's law; time series; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. COVID-19 and suicide in Japan
    Autor*in: Nakata, Taisuke; Fujii, Daisuke; Batista, Quentin; Sunakawa, Takeki
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  Tokyo Center for Economic Research, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: TCER working paper series ; E-193
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; suicides; unemployment; forecasting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Which occupations do unemployed workers target?
    insights from online job search profiles
    Autor*in: Altmann, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert; Rattenborg, Malte Jacob; Sebald, Alexander
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Our study investigates the occupational job search strategies of more than 60,000 unemployed workers in Denmark. We find substantial heterogeneity in how job seekers allocate their search activities across dierent occupations, and this heterogeneity... mehr

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    Our study investigates the occupational job search strategies of more than 60,000 unemployed workers in Denmark. We find substantial heterogeneity in how job seekers allocate their search activities across dierent occupations, and this heterogeneity persists throughout the duration of their unemployment spell. Notably, a considerable proportion of unemployed workers (approximately 30%) search in occupations where they lack relevant experiences. Those aiming for jobs unrelated to their prior experience tend to exhibit the lowest levels of employment and earnings, despite the fact that they target occupations with generally favorable conditions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282823
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16696
    Schlagworte: job search; unemployment; occupational mobility; job finding
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips Curve
    Autor*in: Rolim, Liliam; Carvalho, Laura; Lang, Dany
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [FEA/USP], [São Paulo]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Department of Economics-FEA/USP ; no 2023, 06
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; inequality; monetary policy; bargaining power
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets
    Autor*in: Firooz, Hamid
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and... mehr

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    What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282337
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10649 (2023)
    Schlagworte: international trade; variable markups; pro-competitive gains; labor elasticity of revenue; unemployment; residual wage inequality; firm size distribution
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Robot tax, unemployment and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations model
    Autor*in: Watanabe, Minoru
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Rokko, Kobe, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / [Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University] ; no. 23, 13 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: Automation capital; Robot tax; unemployment; endogenous fertility
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  19. Structural empirical analysis of vacancy referrals with imperfect monitoring and the strategic use of sickness absence
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Foerster, Hanno; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper provides a structural analysis of the role of job vacancy referrals (VRs) by public employment agencies in the job search behavior of unemployed individuals, incorporating institutional features of the monitoring of search behavior by the... mehr

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    This paper provides a structural analysis of the role of job vacancy referrals (VRs) by public employment agencies in the job search behavior of unemployed individuals, incorporating institutional features of the monitoring of search behavior by the agencies. Notably, rejections of VRs may lead to sanctions (temporary benefits reductions) while workers may report sick to avoid those. We estimate models using German administrative data from social security records linked with caseworker recorded data on VRs, sick reporting and sanctions. The analysis highlights the influence of aspects of the health care system on unemployment durations. We estimate that for around 25% of unemployed workers, removing the channel that enables strategic sick reporting reduces the mean unemployment duration by 4 days.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282622
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16495
    Schlagworte: unemployment; wage; sanctions; moral hazard; sickness absence; physician; structural estimation; counterfactual policy evaluation; unemployment duration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Estimating natural rates of unemployment
    a primer
    Autor*in: Bok, Brandyn; Crump, Richard K.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2023, 25 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; business cycles; natural rates
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The shifting reasons for Beveridge-curve shifts
    Autor*in: Barlevy, Gadi; Faberman, R. Jason; Hobijn, Bart; Şahin, Ayşegül
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, [Chicago, Illinois]

    We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and... mehr

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    We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284079
    Schriftenreihe: [Working paper] / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ; WP 2023, 38 (October 2023)
    Schlagworte: Beveridge curve; inflation; job openings; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Les minorités visibles nées au Canada
    l’angle mort des politiques d’intégration au marché du travail
    Autor*in: Boudarbat, Brahim; Adom, Idossou Marius
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  CIRANO, [Montréal]

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    Schriftenreihe: Rapport de projet / CIRANO ; 2023RP, 27
    Schlagworte: Immigrant; visible minority; Quebec; Canada; employment; unemployment; working conditions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The structure of the labor force and employment in Sudan
    Autor*in: Krafft, Caroline; Asʿad, Rāǧī; Cortes-Mendosa, Adriana; Honzay, Isabel
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Schriftenreihe: ERF working papers series ; no. 1648 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: Sudan; demographics; education; labor force participation; employment; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The dynamic causal relationship between remittances, fertility and unemployment in South Africa
    Autor*in: Magombeyi, Mercy Tsitsi
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  University of South Africa, [Pretoria]

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    Schriftenreihe: UNISA economic research working paper series ; 2023, 13 (September 2023)
    Schlagworte: South Africa; fertility; unemployment; autoregressive distributed lag; remittances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Devaluation, exports and recovery from the Great Depression
    Autor*in: Lennard, Jason; Paker, Meredith
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  Economic History Department, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK

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    Schriftenreihe: Economic history working papers / London School of Economics and Political Science ; no: 363
    Schlagworte: exports; gold standard; interwar Britain; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen