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  1. Labor market reform options to boost employment in South Africa
    Autor*in: Duval, Romain; Ji, Yi; Shibata, Ippei
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already... mehr

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    Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already fragile labor market, Covid-19 has raised the urgency of action. This paper reviews labor market policy and other reform options to enhance South Africa's job market performance, drawing from international evidence and new analysis. We find much scope for improving the design of key labor market institutions-including collective bargaining and employment protection legislation-and active labor market policies to improve job seekers' prospects. These reforms should come hand-in-hand with others, such as in the areas of education or product market regulation, that may work pay. Labor market and other reforms would primarily benefit disadvantaged groups such as youth

     
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  2. Okun's Law, development, and demographics
    differences in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across economy and worker groups
    Autor*in: An, Zidong; Bluedorn, John Christopher; Ciminelli, Gabriele
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and... mehr

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    The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth's unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults'. Third, women's unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men's in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups

     
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  3. Recoveries after pandemics
    the role of policies and structural features
    Autor*in: Cuesta Aguirre, Juan Pablo; Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have... mehr

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    To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita)

     
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  4. Unemployment and intrahousehold dynamics
    the effect of male job loss on intimate partner violence in Uganda
    Autor*in: Cleric, Cristina; Tripodi, Stefano
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets, Stockholm

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    Schriftenreihe: Misum working paper series ; no. 2021, 04 (Nov 2021)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; domestic violence; Uganda; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Estimating a new Keynesian wage Phillips curve
    Autor*in: Dadam, Vincent; Viegi, Nicola
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  Economic Research Southern Africa, [Cape Town]

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    Schriftenreihe: ERSA working paper ; 847
    Schlagworte: Wage rigidities; unemployment; labour market; Phillips Curve; New Keynesian
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The impact of extreme weather on temporary work absence
    Autor*in: Spencer, Nekeisha; Urquhart, Mikhail-Ann
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Labour Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    The study examines the impact that extreme weather has on temporary work absence in Jamaica, a central concern given the country’s negative experience with such events. The study uses quarterly data containing key labour market indicators on an... mehr

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    The study examines the impact that extreme weather has on temporary work absence in Jamaica, a central concern given the country’s negative experience with such events. The study uses quarterly data containing key labour market indicators on an unbalanced panel of individuals along with climatic data for the period 2004 to 2014. The findings are several. Firstly, neither excess rainfall nor hurricane affects the odds of being temporarily absent from work. However, including interactions between these weather variables and other key labour market indicators show that only excess rainfall increases the odds of being temporarily absent from work. Secondly, the estimated increase due to excess rainfall translates into a probability of 0.002 per cent of being temporarily absent. Although very marginal, this estimated outcome of excess rainfall is plausible given that workers may be unable to navigate flooded roads to attend work or perhaps are confined due to unforeseen conditions arising in their home environment. Thirdly, using compensation of salaried employees which includes salaries and benefits, we calculated that the average estimated cost of temporary daily absence from work to the labour market is approximately US$2.81. The estimated results and losses, though negligible, can possibly have implications for the labour market which may involve developing e-commuting policies to combat these unfavourable outcomes. The absence of an impact as it relates to hurricanes possibly indicates that existing mechanisms are working to mitigate storm impacts, or the closure of workplaces due to disruptions in the economy from storm occurrences, results in no work.

     
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    ISBN: 9789220343449; 9789220343456; 9789220343463
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263096
    Schriftenreihe: ILO working paper / International Labour Organization ; 30 (May/2021)
    Schlagworte: labour force participation; unemployment; leave of absence; labour legislation; natural disasters; statistics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten)
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  7. Hurricanes and their implications for unemployment
    evidence from the Caribbean
    Autor*in: Mohan, Preeya; Strobl, Eric
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Labour Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    Although extreme climate events pose significant challenges to labour markets, there is a paucity of empirical literature studying their impacts. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of hurricane strikes on unemployment across a sample... mehr

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    Although extreme climate events pose significant challenges to labour markets, there is a paucity of empirical literature studying their impacts. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of hurricane strikes on unemployment across a sample of Caribbean countries. In breaking down the unemployment data, our findings demonstrate that there is very little difference in the impact for adult males and females as well as male youth, however female youth may be slightly more disadvantaged. Finally, labour legislation appears to provide some mitigating impact from hurricane strikes Although extreme climate events pose significant challenges to labour markets, there is a paucity of empirical literature studying their impacts. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of hurricane strikes on unemployment across a sample of Caribbean countries. To do so we constructed a country- and time-varying database of unemployment, hurricane damages, and labour legislation. We then applied a time series cross section model to estimate the contemporaneous and lagged impacts of hurricane destruction. The role of country differences in labour legislation in dampening or exacerbating these effects, was also investigated. Our results suggest that hurricanes in the Caribbean have a downward impact on unemployment, with lagged impacts of up to four years after a disaster strikes. Part of the reason for this fall was a decline in labour force participation rate, however, there was no evidence that greater employment or migration played a role. In breaking down the unemployment data, our findings demonstrate that there is very little difference in the impact for adult males and females as well as male youth, however female youth may be slightly more disadvantaged. Finally, labour legislation appears to provide some mitigating impact from hurricane strikes.

     
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    ISBN: 9789220335864; 9789220335871; 9789220335888
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    hdl: 10419/263092
    Schriftenreihe: ILO working paper / International Labour Organization ; 26 (March/2021)
    Schlagworte: labour force participation; unemployment; labour legislation; natural disasters; statistics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  8. The welfare effects of mandatory reemployment programs: combining a structural model and experimental data
    Autor*in: Maibom, Jonas
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper estimates a structural model of job search which accounts for utility costs and benefits linked to mandatory reemployment programs. The estimation uses data from a randomized experiment which generates exogenous variation in the threat of... mehr

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    This paper estimates a structural model of job search which accounts for utility costs and benefits linked to mandatory reemployment programs. The estimation uses data from a randomized experiment which generates exogenous variation in the threat of program participation. I use the compensating variation (CV) as a measure of the impact of the experimental treatment on worker welfare, the welfare costs. I find that participants would be willing to give up 1.5–1.7 weeks of UI on average to avoid participation in the program, although the program has a positive effect on the job finding rate. Welfare costs vary across workers and are found to be larger for workers with weaker employment prospects. Overall, the analysis shows that the welfare costs are substantial and therefore necessary to take into account when evaluating the case for mandatory reemployment programs.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250527
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14866
    Schlagworte: unemployment; job search; activation; active labor market program
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Refugee migration, labor demand,and local employment
    Autor*in: Auer, Daniel; Götz, Lilia
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    Whether or not immigration negatively affects the labor market outcomes of natives is an ongoing debate. One of the challenges for empirical evidence is the simultaneity of supply- and demand-side effects. To isolate the demand side, we focus on... mehr

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    Whether or not immigration negatively affects the labor market outcomes of natives is an ongoing debate. One of the challenges for empirical evidence is the simultaneity of supply- and demand-side effects. To isolate the demand side, we focus on recent refugees in Germany who are exogenously allocated to districts and largely excluded from the labor market. Using panel data of all German districts between 2010 and 2018 and leveraging variation in the local stock of asylum seekers, we find that 1,000 asylum seekers create 267 jobs on average in a district. This growth effect is mainly driven by a demand for additional labor in service, public administration, and social work. As a consequence, we also observe a significant reduction in the local unemployment rate when more refugees arrive. The dynamic panel data estimates are robust to various sensitivity checks and two different instrumental variable approaches. Quantifying the demand side of immigration adds to our understanding of local labor market dynamics in an increasingly mobile world.

     
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    hdl: 10419/247261
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 989
    Schlagworte: labor demand; refugee migration; employment growth; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Sexual orientation discrimination in the labor market against gay men
    Autor*in: Drydakis, Nick
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The study replicates the first European field experiment on gay men's labor market prospects in Greece. Utilizing the same protocol as the original study in 2006-2007, two follow-up field experiments took place in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. The study... mehr

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    The study replicates the first European field experiment on gay men's labor market prospects in Greece. Utilizing the same protocol as the original study in 2006-2007, two follow-up field experiments took place in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. The study estimated that gay men experienced occupational access constraints and wage sorting in vacancies offering lower remuneration. It was found that in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, gay men experienced increasingly biased treatment compared to 2006-2007. Moreover, the results suggested that unemployment bore an association with occupational access constraints and wage sorting in vacancies offering lower remuneration for gay men. In each of the three experiments, this study captured recruiters' attitudes toward gay men. A one standard deviation increase in taste-discrimination attitudes against gay men decreased their access to occupations by 9.6%. Furthermore, a one standard deviation increase in statistical-discrimination attitudes against gay men decreased their access to occupations by 8.1%. According to the findings, in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, firms excluding gay applicants expressed a higher level of taste- and statistical-discrimination attitudes compared to 2006-2007. A gay rights backlash due to the LGBTIQ+ group's attempt to advance its agenda, rising far-right rhetoric, and prejudice associated with economic downturns experienced in Greece might correspond with increasing biases against gay men.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245722
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14671
    Schlagworte: field experiment; sexual orientation; hiring discrimination; wage sorting; replication; backlash; unemployment; economic recession
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  11. Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax
    Autor*in: Lahcen, Mohammed Ait; Baughman, Garth; Rabinovich, Stanislav; Buggenum, Hugo van
    Erschienen: June 25, 2021
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: June 25, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2021, 040
    Schlagworte: money; search; inflation; unemployment; unemployment volatility; fundamen-tal surplus; product-labor market interaction
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The economics of walking about and predicting unemployment
    Autor*in: Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium;... mehr

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    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Netherlands; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Turkey and the UK - over 439 months between January 1985 and July 2021 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and their own household financial situation. Fear of unemployment predicts subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. Individuals' perceptions of the economic situation in the country and their own household finances also predict unemployment 12 months later. Business sentiment (industry fear of unemployment) is also predictive of unemployment 12 months later. The findings underscore the importance of the "economics of walking about". The implication is that these social survey data are informative in predicting economic downturns and should be used more extensively in forecasting. We also generate a 29 country-level annual panel on life satisfaction from 1985-2020 from the World Database of Happiness and show that the consumer level fear of unemployment variable lowers wellbeing over and above the negative impact of the unemployment rate itself. Qualitative survey metrics were able to predict the Great Recession and the economic slowdown in Europe just prior to the COVID pandemic.

     
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    hdl: 10419/238742
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 922
    Schlagworte: unemployment; fear; sentiment; social attitudes; life satisfaction; recession; COVID
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Okun's Law, development, and demographics
    differences in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across economy and worker groups
    Autor*in: An, Zidong; Bluedorn, John Christopher; Ciminelli, Gabriele
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and... mehr

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    The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth's unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults'. Third, women's unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men's in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups

     
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  14. Returns to labor mobility
    layoff costs and quit turbulence
    Autor*in: Baley, Isaac; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J.
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business, Barcelona

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    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series ; no. 1798
    Schlagworte: labor mobility; quits; turnover; layoff cost; turbulence; unemployment; human capital; skills; matching model; search-island model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. A structural analysis of vacancy referrals with imperfect monitoring and the strategic use of sickness absence
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Foerster, Hanno; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Boston College working papers in economics ; 1042
    Schlagworte: unemployment; wage; unemployment insurance; monitoring; moral hazard; structuralestimation; counterfactual policy evaluation; unemployment duration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Beyond the traditional unemployment rate during Covid-19 in Lithuania
    Autor*in: Garcia-Louzao, Jose; Vėlyvis, Kristijonas
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius

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    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / Lietuvos Bankas ; no. 40 (2021)
    Schlagworte: abor market statistics; labor force; unemployment
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  17. Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax
    Autor*in: Lahcen, Mohammed Ait; Baughman, Garth; Rabinovich, Stanislav; Buggenum, Hugo van
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Zurich

    We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated... mehr

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    We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks - productivity and monetary - and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the US postwar labor market and monetary data and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.

     
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    hdl: 10419/243114
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: June 3, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / University of Zurich, Department of Economics ; no. 390
    Schlagworte: Money; search; inflation; unemployment; unemployment volatility; fundamental surplus; product-labor market interaction
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Why is workplace sexual harassment underreported?
    the value of outside options amid the threat of retaliation
    Autor*in: Dahl, Gordon B.; Knepper, Matthew
    Erschienen: September 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Why is workplace sexual harassment chronically underreported? We hypothesize that employers coerce victims into silence through the threat of a retaliatory firing, and test this theory by estimating whether external shocks that reduce the value of a... mehr

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    Why is workplace sexual harassment chronically underreported? We hypothesize that employers coerce victims into silence through the threat of a retaliatory firing, and test this theory by estimating whether external shocks that reduce the value of a worker’s outside options exacerbate underreporting. Under mild assumptions, a rise in the severity of formal complaints is indicative of increased underreporting. Combining this insight with an objective measure of the quality of charges filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), we perform two analyses. First, we assess whether workers report sexual harassment more selectively during recessions, when outside labor market options are limited. We estimate the fraction of sexual harassment charges deemed to have merit by the EEOC increases by 0.5-0.7% for each one percentage point increase in a state-industry’s monthly unemployment rate. The effect is amplified in industries employing a larger fraction of men and in establishments with a higher share of male managers. Second, we test whether less generous UI benefits create economic incentives for victims of workplace sexual harassment to remain silent. We find the selectivity of sexual harassment charges increases by more than 30% in response to a 50% cut to North Carolina’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) program following the Great Recession.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9320 (2021)
    Schlagworte: sexual harassment; unemployment; unemployment insurance
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  19. The geography of job creation and job destruction
    Autor*in: Kuhn, Moritz; Manovskii, Iourii; Qiu, Xincheng
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities in spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, job finding, and... mehr

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    Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities in spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, job finding, and job filling within each country. This robust set of facts guides and disciplines the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14791
    Schlagworte: local labor markets; unemployment; vacancies; search and matching
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  20. Working time reduction and employment in a finite world
    Autor*in: Fagnart, Jean-François; Germain, Marc; Van der Linden, Bruno
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the consequences of a working time reduction (WTR hereafter) in a growth model with efficiency wages and an essential natural resource (natural capital). Considering that technical progress cannot reduce the resource content of final... mehr

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    We study the consequences of a working time reduction (WTR hereafter) in a growth model with efficiency wages and an essential natural resource (natural capital). Considering that technical progress cannot reduce the resource content of final production to zero, we show that the effects of a WTR on (un)employment depend on the abundance of natural capital. If it is unlimited, the economy converges toward a balanced growth path and a WTR lowers output, employment and wage levels along this path. With finite natural capital, the economy converges toward a stationary state. A WTR then increases the hourly wage and employment if natural capital is scarce enough, which is necessarily the case if technical progress on produced capital and labour is unbounded. The long-term elasticity of employment (resp., of the hourly wage) to the cut in hours is larger (resp., smaller) when natural capital is scarcer. A numerical analysis of the transitory impacts of a WTR confirms that when natural capital is scarcer, it increases employment more and the hourly wage less, with a less negative initial impact on output.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248896
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9351 (2021)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; fair wage; work sharing; (limits to) growth; natural capital
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Mismatch unemployment in Austria
    the role of regional labour markets for skills
    Autor*in: Böheim, René; Christl, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Commission, [Seville]

    During the last decade, the Austrian labour market experienced a substantial outward shift of the Beveridge curve - the relationship between the unemployment and the job vacancy rate. Using detailed administrative data on vacancies and registered... mehr

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    During the last decade, the Austrian labour market experienced a substantial outward shift of the Beveridge curve - the relationship between the unemployment and the job vacancy rate. Using detailed administrative data on vacancies and registered unemployed by region and skill level, we test which factors caused this shift. We find that the Beveridge curve shifted primarily because mismatch increased substantially. Looking on the regional and skill dimension of mismatch unemployment, we find a substantial increase of mismatch unemployment for manual routine tasks as well as for the region of Vienna.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology ; 2021, 08
    Schlagworte: Beveridge curve; unemployment; matching efficiency
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Recoveries after pandemics
    the role of policies and structural features
    Autor*in: Cuesta Aguirre, Juan Pablo; Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have... mehr

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    To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita)

     
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  23. Mandatory advance notice of layoff
    evidence and efficiency considerations
    Autor*in: Cederlöf, Jonas; Fredriksson, Peter; Nekoei, Arash; Seim, David
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate a prevalent, but understudied, employment protection policy: mandatory advance notice (MN), requiring employers to notify employees of forthcoming layoffs. MN increases future production, as notified workers search on the job, but... mehr

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    We investigate a prevalent, but understudied, employment protection policy: mandatory advance notice (MN), requiring employers to notify employees of forthcoming layoffs. MN increases future production, as notified workers search on the job, but reduces current production as they supply less effort. Our theoretical model captures this trade-off and predicts that MN improves production efficiency by increasing information sharing, whereas large production losses can be avoided by worker-firm agreements on side-payments – severance pay – in lieu of MN. We provide evidence of such severance increases in response to an extension of MN using novel Swedish administrative data. We then estimate the production gain of MN: extending the MN period leads to shorter non-employment duration and higher reemployment wages, plausibly driven by on-the-job search. Using variation in notice duration across firms, we estimate the productivity loss of notice. The estimates of benefits and costs suggest that MN has a positive net impact on production, offering an empirically-grounded efficiency argument for mandating notice.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245389
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9208 (2021)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; advance notice; job mobility; job quality
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. International trade, intellectual property rights and the (un)employment of migrants
    Autor*in: Guichard, Lucas; Stepanok, Ignat
    Erschienen: 30 July 2021
    Verlag:  Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, Nürnberg

    We study the effect of trade liberalization and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on the unemployment rate of migrants relative to non-migrants. We build a North-South trade and growth model with a positive steady state rate of migration.... mehr

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    We study the effect of trade liberalization and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on the unemployment rate of migrants relative to non-migrants. We build a North-South trade and growth model with a positive steady state rate of migration. We find that bilateral trade liberalization decreases the relative unemployment rate of migrants when migration is low and increases the relative unemployment rate when the migration rate is high. The results do not rely on assumptions about network effects, the probability to find a job for a migrant is independent of the relative size of the migrant diaspora. IPR protection leads to a higher relative unemployment rate of migrants regardless of the size of migration. We empirically test and confirm the theoretical predictions on trade liberalization and IPR protection using data for 20 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries over the period 2000-2014. Wir untersuchen die Wirkungen einer Handelsliberalisierung und des Schutzes geistigen Eigentums auf die Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten im Vergleich zu Einheimischen im Zielland. Die Analyse stützt sich auf ein Nord-Süd-Handelsmodell mit Wirtschaftswachstum und einer positiven Migrationsrate. Eine bilaterale Handelsliberalisierung führt zu einer niedrigeren Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten bei geringer Migration und zu einer höheren Arbeitslosenquote, wenn die Migrationsrate hoch ist. Dieses Ergebnis beruht nicht auf Netzwerkeffekten: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit eine Stelle zu finden ist unabhängig von der Größe der Diaspora. Ebenso führt der Schutz geistigen Eigentums zu einer höheren Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten unabhängig von der Größe der Diaspora. Die theoretischen Hypothesen des Modells wurden anhand von Daten aus 20 OECD Ländern in der Periode 2000-2014 empirisch getestet. Die empirischen Ergebnisse bestätigen die theoretischen Vorhersagen des Modells.

     
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    hdl: 10419/246261
    Schriftenreihe: IAB-discussion paper ; 2021, 11
    Schlagworte: Migration; unemployment; trade liberalization; intellectual property rights; North-South trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  25. As consequências do desemprego para os rendimentos de reemprego: uma análise para diferentes condições do mercado de trabalho
    Autor*in: Reis, Maurício Cortez
    Erschienen: julho de 2021
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This paper aims to investigate earnings losses of workers who become unemployed in Brazil, comparing the results for different stages of the business cycle. Estimates using longitudinal data from the continuous PNAD for the period between 2012 and... mehr

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    This paper aims to investigate earnings losses of workers who become unemployed in Brazil, comparing the results for different stages of the business cycle. Estimates using longitudinal data from the continuous PNAD for the period between 2012 and 2017 show that workers who transited from employment to unemployment and were reemployed during a period of strong labor market conditions experienced small and usually non-signifi cant earnings declines. However, earnings losses are estimated between 10% and 15% for those who became unemployed and were able to fi nd a new job under weak labor market conditions. Part of this reduction seems to be due to the workers fl ow to jobs in the informal sector, which is higher during periods of high unemployment rates compared to times of better labor market conditions.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2670
    Schlagworte: unemployment; labor earnings; labor market conditions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen