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  1. Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market
    Autor*in: Jacquinot, Pascal; Lozej, Matija; Pisani, Massimiliano
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Central Bank of Ireland, [Dublin]

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    Schriftenreihe: Research technical paper / Central Bank of Ireland ; vol. 2020, no. 4
    Schlagworte: DSGE models; protectionism; unemployment; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Trade, jobs, and inequality
    Autor*in: Beaton, Kimberly; Cerra, Valerie; Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines the impact of trade on employment, wages, and other outcomes across countries and explores the conditions and policies that help spread the gains from trade more evenly throughout the population. We exploit a large global... mehr

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    This paper examines the impact of trade on employment, wages, and other outcomes across countries and explores the conditions and policies that help spread the gains from trade more evenly throughout the population. We exploit a large global firm-level dataset to examine the impact of import competition on employment, wages, and firm performance, as well as the firm, industry, and country factors that mitigate any negative impact of an import shock. In contrast to the results of some well-known single-country studies, we find limited adverse impact of import competition. In some countries and industries, import competition actually strengthens employment growth. In addition, import competition tends to improve average wages, investment, and firm profitability. Country characteristics, such as educational attainment, can also improve employment prospects in response to trade shocks. Finally, we find that firms experiencing greater import competition start with higher average wages; thus any relatively slower employment growth in this group of firms could lead to lower inequality

     
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    ISBN: 9781513584355
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 178
    Schlagworte: trade; jobs; employment; labor market adjustment; inequality; import competition; firms; industries; panel data; globalization; protectionism; wages; Economic Growth of Open Economies; Economic Integration; Empirical Studies of Trade; Trade and Labor Market Interactions; Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. If the US-China trade war is here to stay, what are the risks and opportunities for other GVC economies outside the war zone?
    Autor*in: Witada Anukoonwattaka; Romao, Pedro; Lobo, Richard S.
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ARTNeT, United Nations ESCAP, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand

    Over the last three years, trade tensions between the United States (US) and China have transformed a fairly open bilateral trading environment into a rather protectionist one. The new administration of the United States has maintained most of the... mehr

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    Over the last three years, trade tensions between the United States (US) and China have transformed a fairly open bilateral trading environment into a rather protectionist one. The new administration of the United States has maintained most of the bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers put in place by the previous administration. Moreover, incentives to diversify trade partners and localisation have been intensified following COVID-19-induced global supply-chain disruptions. Continuing bilateral trade tensions between the world's largest economic powerhouse scan be expected to have significant impacts on the rest of the world. While it is intuitive to conclude that bilateral trade restrictions create new opportunities for others, deep economic interdependence through Global Value Chains (GVCs) complicate matters considerably. Impact assessment needs to consider supply-side relationships between each economy and the two GVC giants. Therefore, in this paper, we develop an analytical framework based on input-output data to assess how existing trade flows will be affected by tariff escalation between the US and China. The aim is to identify potential winners and losers among third-party economies. More specifically, we used product-level data and a new UN-ESCAP WWZ decomposition technique of MRIO trade in value-added data to (1) model tariff's impacts on US-China bilateral trade and then (2) track how third-countries might be impacted via international supply-chains: both negatively, via lower exports in affected (tariffed) links, as well as positively via enhanced exports demand in alternative ones. We find that the current trade war has been overall positive for third-party economies, shifting US$ 61.1 billion in net exports away from the US-China link towards other economies. Due to export asymmetries in the US-China bilateral trade relationship, opportunities for third-party economies emerge more from the US tariff imposition than a vice versa. Indeed, our model indicates that the supply-side reconfiguration to avoid US tariffs accounted for more than 80% of third-party economies' gains, equivalent to US$ 49.5 billion in net exports coming from China to the US diverted. Mexico, Canada, Republic of Korea, Germany and Japan are among the top beneficiaries. Ultimately, lingering trade tensions between the world's two largest economies will continue to pressure international trade downwards, while accelerating pre-existing trends, such as diversification of supply chains.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243135
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade ; no. 209 (2020)
    Schlagworte: global value chains; trade war; protectionism; trade policy; bilateral trade; tariffs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (v, 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  4. Trade wars currency wars
    Autor*in: Auray, Stéphane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurélien
    Erschienen: 20 October 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16651
    Schlagworte: protectionism; Currency wars; trade wars
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Oil discoveries and protectionism
    role of news effects
    Autor*in: Sebastian-Perez, Fidel; Raveh, Ohad; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Can oil discovery shocks affect the demand for protectionism? An intertemporal model of Dutch disease indicates that if the tradable sector is politically dominant then an oil discovery can induce protectionism. If the economy is also credit... mehr

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    Can oil discovery shocks affect the demand for protectionism? An intertemporal model of Dutch disease indicates that if the tradable sector is politically dominant then an oil discovery can induce protectionism. If the economy is also credit constrained, this effect is intensified upon discovery, but partially reversed when oil revenues start to flow. We test these predictions using 16.2 million, HS-6 level, bilateral tariff rates that cover 5,718 products in 155 countries over the period 1988-2012, and data on worldwide discoveries of giant oil and gas fields. Our identification strategy rests on the exogeneity of the timing of discoveries. Our empirical results indicate that an oil discovery increases tariffs during pre-production years and decreases tariffs in the years to follow yet to a lesser extent, most notably in capital scarce economies with a relatively dominant tradable sector. Our baseline estimates indicate that a giant oil field discovery induces a rise of approximately 13% in the average tariff over the course of 10 years; this increase is approximately 2.5 times larger during the pre-production period when the oil discovery represents a pure news shock.

     
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    hdl: 10419/237780
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 047
    Schlagworte: Oil discoveries; protectionism; capital scarcity; Dutch disease; political economy; trade policy; news shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Ambiguous protection
    Autor*in: Gruendler, Klaus; Hillman, Arye L.
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity... mehr

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    Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied empirically suggests, as a benchmark estimate, equal divide between social benefit and producer protection. Inefficiency and distributional effects are consistent with producerprotecting trade policy. Country diversity in use of regulations supplements our estimates in suggesting producer-protecting intent. We look at how WTO procedures have allowed producer protection in the guise of social benefit.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232485
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8888 (2021)
    Schlagworte: protectionism; World Trade Organization; regulation; non-tariff barriers; public safety; environmental protection
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The toll of tariffs
    protectionism, education and fertility in late 19th century France
    Autor*in: Bignon, Vincent; García-Peñalosa, Cecilia
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Aix-Marseille School of Economics, [Aix-en-Provence

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / AMSE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics ; WP 2021, nr 26
    Schlagworte: Education; fertility; protectionism; France
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The effect of tariffs on Spanish goods exports
    Autor*in: Gutiérrez, Eduardo; Martín Machuca, César
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2121
    Schlagworte: protectionism; exports; tariffs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Exports at risk from non-tariff measures
    the experience of commonwealth countries̜
    Autor*in: Evenett, Simon J.
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Commonwealth Secretariat, London

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    Schriftenreihe: International trade working paper / Commonwealth Secretariat ; 2020, 03
    Schlagworte: tariffs; non-tariff measures; protectionism; Commonwealth exports; multilateral trading system
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Understanding of trade
    Autor*in: Stantcheva, Stefanie
    Erschienen: 11 May 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17301
    Schlagworte: Amerikaner; Politische Einstellung; Freihandel; Außenwirtschaftspolitik; USA; Trade; Surveys; Perceptions; Experiment; trade policy; protectionism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 102 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Protectionism and economic growth
    causal evidence from the first era of globalization
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian; Wüthrich, Kaspar
    Erschienen: February 3, 2021
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    We investigate how protectionist policies influence short-run economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was... mehr

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    We investigate how protectionist policies influence short-run economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. Tariffs increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy by increasing government expenditure.

     
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    hdl: 10419/242425
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2021 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 102
    Schlagworte: protectionism; economic growth; first era of globalization; synthetic control method; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Sea change in EU trade policy
    opportunities for diversification in the Indo-Pacific
    Autor*in: Hilpert, Hanns Günther
    Erschienen: [October 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    Europe's trade policy is heading for a sea change. But it is not Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine that is the main reason for this development. Rather, there are long-term influencing factors at work here: the WTO-centred multilateral trade... mehr

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    Europe's trade policy is heading for a sea change. But it is not Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine that is the main reason for this development. Rather, there are long-term influencing factors at work here: the WTO-centred multilateral trade order is visibly eroding. Protectionism is on the rise around the globe. World trade is growing only marginally or is even stagnating. Globalization is undergoing a transformation whose outcome is uncertain. And international trade is increasingly being instrumentalized for political purposes. In February 2021, the European Commission responded to these structural upheavals by announcing an "open, sustainable and assertive trade policy". However, there has so far been uneven progress towards implementing the objectives included in the new trade policy strategy. While the EU's intention to strengthen both Europe's assertiveness and the sustainability of trade is being realized through numerous new instruments and measures, its promise of openness and liberalization remains unfulfilled for the time being. In particular, the Indo-Pacific region beyond China would offer the German and European economies significant opportunities to tap new sources of raw materials and access reliable sup­plier networks and growing sales markets.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266582
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 59 (October 2022)
    Schlagworte: Mitgliedsstaaten; Außenhandelspolitik; Diversifikation; Ursache; Politik; Außenhandel; Strategie; Internationale Kooperation; Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Völkerrechtlicher Vertrag; Internationale Politik; EU trade policy; Putin; aggression against Ukraine; protectionism; WTO; China; Taiwan crisis; Australia; New Zealand; India; Indo-Pacific
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (8 Seiten)
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    "English version of SWP-Aktuell 61/2022"

    Gesehen am 19.10.2022
  13. "Monopolistic" vs. "cooperative" state in the institutional and economic modelling of Antonio De Viti De Marco
    Autor*in: Tedesco, Luca; Ricciuti, Roberto
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Università di Verona, Department of Economics, [Verona]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Department of Economics, University of Verona ; WP number 7 (May 2023)
    Schlagworte: De Viti de Marco; liberal Italy; public finance; taxation; free trade; protectionism; Italian economic thought
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  14. The changed geopolitical map
    implications for business policy in a sustainable finance perspective
    Autor*in: Ghauri, Pervez N.; Oxelheim, Lars; Randøy, Trond
    Erschienen: May 30, 2023
    Verlag:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    The relationship between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and governments has evolved over time, from a period of conflict after World War II to a more cooperative relationship in the 1970s and 1980s (Dunning, 1993). In the 1990s, many host... mehr

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    The relationship between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and governments has evolved over time, from a period of conflict after World War II to a more cooperative relationship in the 1970s and 1980s (Dunning, 1993). In the 1990s, many host governments sought foreign direct investments (FDIs) by MNEs and subsidized inward investments through excessive locational competition (Oxelheim & Ghauri, 2004). However, recently, this relationship has changed again, and outward-oriented policies have been replaced by protectionist ones (Ghauri, Strange & Cooke, 2021; Oxelheim & Randøy, 2021). Home country governments, particularly in the US (i.e., Inflation Reduction Act) and in Europe (i.e., Net-Zero Industry Act as part of the Green Deal Industrial Plan), are concerned about technology transfers and value chain vulnerabilities from both inward and outward investments.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IFN working paper ; no. 1465 (2023)
    Schlagworte: Sustainable finance; ESG; protectionism; globalization; state aid; investment patterns; global value chain
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten)
  15. Trade, jobs, and inequality
    Autor*in: Beaton, Kimberly; Cerra, Valerie; Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines the impact of trade on employment, wages, and other outcomes across countries and explores the conditions and policies that help spread the gains from trade more evenly throughout the population. We exploit a large global... mehr

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    This paper examines the impact of trade on employment, wages, and other outcomes across countries and explores the conditions and policies that help spread the gains from trade more evenly throughout the population. We exploit a large global firm-level dataset to examine the impact of import competition on employment, wages, and firm performance, as well as the firm, industry, and country factors that mitigate any negative impact of an import shock. In contrast to the results of some well-known single-country studies, we find limited adverse impact of import competition. In some countries and industries, import competition actually strengthens employment growth. In addition, import competition tends to improve average wages, investment, and firm profitability. Country characteristics, such as educational attainment, can also improve employment prospects in response to trade shocks. Finally, we find that firms experiencing greater import competition start with higher average wages; thus any relatively slower employment growth in this group of firms could lead to lower inequality

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781513584355
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 178
    Schlagworte: trade; jobs; employment; labor market adjustment; inequality; import competition; firms; industries; panel data; globalization; protectionism; wages; Economic Growth of Open Economies; Economic Integration; Empirical Studies of Trade; Trade and Labor Market Interactions; Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Trade and currency weapons
    Autor*in: Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès; Bussière, Matthieu; Wibaux, Pauline
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques, Paris

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Paris School of Economics ; no 2018, 30
    Schlagworte: tariffs; exchange rates; trade elasticities; protectionism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. A new measure of aggregate trade restrictions
    cyclical drivers and macro effects
    Autor*in: Estefania-Flores, Julia; Furceri, Davide; Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali; Ostry, Jonathan David; Rose, Andrew
    Erschienen: 01 June 2023
    Verlag:  Bruegel, Brussels

    This paper presents a new measure of aggregate trade restrictions (MATR) using data from the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade... mehr

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    This paper presents a new measure of aggregate trade restrictions (MATR) using data from the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but is more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. It is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949-2019. We use MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle, and how the macroeconomy looks in the aftermath of changes in trade restrictiveness. For the sample as a whole, MATR is typically a-cyclical but this average finding is heterogeneous across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in emerging market and developing economies, especially in response to increases in unemployment. As to macroeconomic effects, increases in MATR are robustly associated with declines in GDP and in labour productivity (as well as being adverse for a range of other macroeconomic indicators).

     
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    hdl: 10419/274212
    Schriftenreihe: Bruegel working paper ; 2023, issue 6
    Schlagworte: empirical; protectionism; tariffs; non-tariff barriers; cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The costs of trade protectionism
    evidence from Spanish firms and non-tariff measures
    Autor*in: Kirpichev, Dmitri; Moral-Benito, Enrique
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1814
    Schlagworte: protectionism; non-tariff measures; firm level data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Beggar thy neighbour
    British imports during the inter-war years and the effect of the 1932 tariff
    Autor*in: Horsewood, Nicholas; Sen, Somnath; Voicu, Anca
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper / Department of Economics, The University of Birmingham ; 10-31
    Schlagworte: Trade policy; protectionism; General Tariff; British trade; inter-war years; open economy macroeconomics
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S.)