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  1. On the Role of Learning, Human Capital, and Performance Incentives for Wages
    Autor*in: Camargo, Braz; Lange, Fabian; Pastorino, Elena
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Performance pay in general amounts to only a small fraction of total pay. In this paper, we show that performance pay is nevertheless important for the level and dynamics of wages over the life cycle because of the incentives it indirectly provides... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Performance pay in general amounts to only a small fraction of total pay. In this paper, we show that performance pay is nevertheless important for the level and dynamics of wages over the life cycle because of the incentives it indirectly provides for human capital acquisition and because of its impact on the variability of total pay. We articulate this argument in the context of a model that combines three key mechanisms for wage growth and dispersion: employer learning about workers' ability, human capital acquisition, and performance incentives. We use this model to account for the experience profile of wages, their dispersion, and their composition in terms of fixed and variable (performance) pay. The model admits an analytical decomposition of performance pay into four terms that capture (i) the trade-off between risk and incentives characteristic of settings of moral hazard; (ii) the insurance that firms provide against the wage risk due to the uncertainty about ability; (iii) incentives for effort arising from this uncertainty (career concerns); and (iv) incentives for effort generated by the prospect of human capital acquisition. We prove the model is identified under standard assumptions. Despite its parsimony, the model fits the data very well, including the empirical finding that performance pay as a share of total pay first increases and then decreases with experience. This feature of performance pay, which we are the first to document, runs contrary to the prediction of standard models of performance incentives that the ratio of performance pay to total pay increases with experience, especially at the end of the life cycle. Our estimates imply that effort to produce output augments human capital. Also, human capital acquisition and insurance against uncertainty about ability are quantitatively the main determinants of performance pay. Career-concerns incentives, on which the theoretical literature has focused, and the strength of the contemporaneous trade-off between risk and incentives--the primary determinant of variable pay in static moral-hazard models--are instead much less relevant. Importantly, we find that through the cumulative impact of effort on the job on human capital acquisition and the contribution of variable pay to the variance of total pay, performance incentives are a crucial source of wage growth and dispersion over the life cycle

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30191
    Schlagworte: Leistungsentgelt; Humankapital; Lohnniveau; Bildungsinvestition; Arbeitsvertrag; Vertragstheorie; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Economics of Contract: Theory; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs; Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials; Compensation Packages; Payment Methods; Labor Contracts; Professional Labor Markets; Occupational Licensing
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  2. Anticipated Gender Discrimination and Grade Disclosure
    Autor*in: Lepage, Louis Pierre; Li, Xiaomeng; Zafar, Basit
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study a unique grading policy at a large US public university allowing students to mask their letter grades into a "Pass", after having observed their original grade. Using administrative transcript records, we find that female students are... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We study a unique grading policy at a large US public university allowing students to mask their letter grades into a "Pass", after having observed their original grade. Using administrative transcript records, we find that female students are substantially less likely to mask their grades than male students, even after accounting for differences in grades, GPA, and course/major taking. We present a framework showing how anticipated discrimination in the labor market can distort incentives to mask across gender. Consistent with the framework, a survey reveals that students anticipate that female students, particularly in STEM, Business, and Economics, will face labor market discrimination which makes them less likely to mask. Our survey allows us to distinguish between anticipated discrimination and other explanations which could contribute to the masking gap, such as preferences for risk or transparency. We find that anticipated discrimination can explain a sizable fraction of the gender gap in masking

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30765
    Schlagworte: Studierende; Frauen; Geschlechterdiskriminierung; Experiment; USA; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Higher Education; Research Institutions; Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
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  3. Liquid Democracy
    Two Experiments on Delegation in Voting
    Autor*in: Campbell, Joseph; Casella, Alessandra; De Lara, Lucas; Mooers, Victoria R.; Ravindran, Dilip
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Under Liquid Democracy (LD), decisions are taken by referendum, but voters are allowed to delegate their votes to other voters. Theory shows that in common interest problems where experts are correctly identified, the outcome can be superior to... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Under Liquid Democracy (LD), decisions are taken by referendum, but voters are allowed to delegate their votes to other voters. Theory shows that in common interest problems where experts are correctly identified, the outcome can be superior to simple majority voting. However, even when experts are correctly identified, delegation must be used sparely because it reduces the variety of independent information sources. We report the results of two experiments, each studying two treatments: in one treatment, participants have the option of delegating to better informed individuals; in the second, participants can choose to abstain. The first experiment follows a tightly controlled design planned for the lab; the second is a perceptual task run online where information about signals' precision is ambiguous. The two designs are very different, but the experiments reach the same result: in both, delegation rates are unexpectedly high and higher than abstention rates, and LD underperforms relative to both universal voting and abstention

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30794
    Schlagworte: Gruppenentscheidung; Experiment; Wahlverhalten; Laboratory, Group Behavior; Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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  4. Getting on the Map
    The Impact of Online Listings on Business Performance
    Autor*in: Luca, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We evaluate the extent to which small businesses maintain an online presence, looking at restaurant listings on a major online review platform. While the majority of restaurants have an online presence, we find that roughly 18 percent in our sample... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We evaluate the extent to which small businesses maintain an online presence, looking at restaurant listings on a major online review platform. While the majority of restaurants have an online presence, we find that roughly 18 percent in our sample have no presence as of the end of 2017, despite being able to list their business for free. Using temporal variation in a restaurant's online presence as well as a natural experiment arising from a data acquisition that led over a thousand businesses to be added to the platform, we find that maintaining an online presence is valuable for small businesses. Establishing an online presence leads to a 5% revenue increase. Using data on customer reviews post-add, we explore potential channels that could explain why restaurants continue to remain offline despite potential benefits from digital representation. Consistent with models of voluntary disclosure, we find that businesses that had stayed online until the acquisition ended up having lower ratings, on average, than those that added themselves or were added by customers

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30810
    Schlagworte: Digitale Plattform; Online-Marketing; Unternehmenserfolg; Gastronomie; KMU; USA; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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  5. Disasters with Unobservable Duration and Frequency
    Intensified Responses and Diminished Preparedness
    Autor*in: Acharya, Viral V.; Johnson, Tim; Sundaresan, Suresh M.; Zheng, Steven
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and optimistic behavior in good times. In a disaster, uncertainty about duration acts as an amplification mechanism. Agents alter their optimal investment and consumption more intensely relative to the full-information benchmark, and the welfare cost of parameter uncertainty can be extreme. However, in advance of a disaster, uncertainty about the arrival rate can be welfare-increasing and agents exhibit diminished preparedness: they optimally invest less in mitigation than under full information and pay less for insurance against the next disaster

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31067
    Schlagworte: Katastrophe; Risiko; Asymmetrische Information; Investitionsentscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Welfare Economics; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; General
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  6. Continuances and Uncertainty in the Course of Adjudication
    Autor*in: Shavell, Steven
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The myriad uncertainties common to the process of adjudication--concerning evidence that opposing parties will present, legal issues that will become relevant, illness of witnesses, and the like--lead to two social problems. First, when unanticipated... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    The myriad uncertainties common to the process of adjudication--concerning evidence that opposing parties will present, legal issues that will become relevant, illness of witnesses, and the like--lead to two social problems. First, when unanticipated events occur, the information that parties will be able to provide courts may be inadequate. And second, preparation effort invested by parties may be wasted: whereas parties will tend to prepare for numerous possible events in adjudication, many will not come to pass and thus much effort will be for nought. Both of these problems are addressed by the granting of continuances. Inability to present evidence for want of time will be directly remedied by the giving of continuances; and wasted preparation effort will be reduced because the ability to obtain continuances when uncertain events occur will lessen the need to prepare for them. But the use of continuances involves various costs of delay, meaning that the decision to grant continuances should be guided by an economic calculus. That calculus is developed in the theory presented in this article and the actual use of continuances is discussed

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31084
    Schlagworte: Rechtsprechung; Gerichtsbarkeit; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Rechtsprechung; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Gerichtsbarkeit; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior; Litigation Process
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  7. Generative AI at Work
    Autor*in: Brynjolfsson, Erik; Li, Danielle; Raymond, Lindsey R.
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant using data from 5,179 customer support agents. Access to the tool increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14 percent on average, with... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We study the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant using data from 5,179 customer support agents. Access to the tool increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14 percent on average, with the greatest impact on novice and low-skilled workers, and minimal impact on experienced and highly skilled workers. We provide suggestive evidence that the AI model disseminates the potentially tacit knowledge of more able workers and helps newer workers move down the experience curve. In addition, we show that AI assistance improves customer sentiment, reduces requests for managerial intervention, and improves employee retention

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31161
    Schlagworte: Kundenservice; Künstliche Intelligenz; Computerunterstützte Kommunikation; Arbeitsproduktivität; Arbeitskräfte; Informationsverbreitung; Qualifikation; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; IT Management; Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions; Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  8. Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
    Autor*in: Alfaro, Laura; Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang; Chor, Davin
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of economics research findings on how openness to trade has affected labor market outcomes or goods prices. Across annual surveys from 2018-2022, each administered to a representative sample of the U.S. general population, we find that information influences trade policy preferences in complex ways. Information highlighting the link between trade and manufacturing job losses significantly raises expressed preferences for more limits on trade. Strikingly, information on the price benefits of trade (or the cost of tariffs) also induces protectionist policy choices, indicating that these preferences do not respond symmetrically to information on the gains versus losses from trade. We find evidence that these expressed preferences are driven in part by how the received information interacts with one's political identity, resulting in prior-biased belief updating, as well as by pre-existing concerns over the impact on American jobs and over trade with China. Information that solely communicates the benefits of trade is thus unlikely to succeed unless it addresses these prior beliefs and concerns

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31240
    Schlagworte: Verbrauchereinstellung; Globalisierung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Außenhandelsgewinn; Beschäftigungseffekt; Wissen; USA; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Trade; Economic Impacts of Globalization
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  9. Do You Even Crypto, Bro?
    Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using repeated large-scale surveys of U.S. households, we study the cryptocurrency investment decisions and motives of households relative to other financial assets. Cryptocurrency holders tend to be young, white, male and more libertarian relative... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Using repeated large-scale surveys of U.S. households, we study the cryptocurrency investment decisions and motives of households relative to other financial assets. Cryptocurrency holders tend to be young, white, male and more libertarian relative to non-crypto holders. They expect much higher rates of returns for crypto and perceive it as relatively safer than do other households. They also view it as a better hedge against inflation. For those holding cryptocurrencies, changes in Bitcoin prices translate into their purchases of durable goods. Finally, exogenously-provided information about historical returns of cryptocurrencies leads individuals to increase their desired crypto holdings and makes them more likely to actually purchase cryptocurrency subsequently. We compare these views and behaviors to those of households toward other financial assets and argue that cryptocurrency is unique in many of these respects

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31284
    Schlagworte: Privater Haushalt; Virtuelle Währung; Investitionsentscheidung; Haushaltsökonomik; USA; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Money and Interest Rates; Household Finance
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  10. The impact of political uncertainty on asset prices
    the case of United Kingdom's EU membership referendum
    Autor*in: Hanna, Joseph; Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; MacDonald, Margaux
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of "Leave" result caused British stocks (FTSE All-Share) to decline by 0.004 percent, and the Pound to depreciate by 0.006 percent against the euro. We find negative and significant effects for most sub-sectors, and negative spill-overs to other EU member countries. We show that the differential impact across sectors and countries can be explained by differences in the trade exposures

     
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    Schlagworte: Brexit; EU referendum; political uncertainty; high frequency data; Brexit; EU Referendum; High Frequency Data; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Political Uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns
    evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics
    Autor*in: Jung, Seungho; Lee, Jongmin; Lee, Seohyun
    Erschienen: Oct 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from... mehr

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    We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns

     
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    ISBN: 9781557759672
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 251
    Schlagworte: Geopolitical risk; Textual analysis; Stock returns; Inter-Korean relations; General Financial Markets; Geopolitical Risk, Textual Analysis and Stock Returns; GPRNK Index; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; National Security and War; Stock Return
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Data and Market Power
    Autor*in: Eeckhout, Jan; Veldkamp, Laura
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Might firms' use of data create market power? To explore this hypothesis, we craft a model in which economies of scale in data induce a data-rich firm to invest in producing at a lower marginal cost and larger scale. However, the model uncovers much... mehr

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    Might firms' use of data create market power? To explore this hypothesis, we craft a model in which economies of scale in data induce a data-rich firm to invest in producing at a lower marginal cost and larger scale. However, the model uncovers much richer interactions between data, welfare and market power. Data affects risk, firm size and the composition of the goods firms produce, all of which affect markups. The tradeoff between these forces depends on the level of aggregation at which markups are measured. Empirical researchers who measure markups at the product level, firm level or industry level come to different conclusions about trends and cyclical fluctuations in markups. Our results reconcile and re-interpret these facts. The divergence between product, firm and industry markups can be a sign that firms are using data to reallocate production to the goods consumers want most

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30022
    Schlagworte: Daten; Marktmacht; Mark-up Pricing; Skalenertrag; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; General
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  13. The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms
    Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and... mehr

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    Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic choices in the data and help us make sense of the observed heterogeneous reactions to business-cycle shocks and policy interventions. We conclude by highlighting the relevant open questions and why tackling them is important for academic research and policy making

     
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  14. Policy Uncertainty Reduces Green Investment
    Autor*in: Wang, Mengyu; Wurgler, Jeffrey; Zhang, Hong
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Government subsidies are often used to stimulate environment-friendly investment. We find that Chinese firms reduce green investment as the uncertainty of subsidies rises. This effect is identified from weather-driven fluctuations in air pollution... mehr

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    Government subsidies are often used to stimulate environment-friendly investment. We find that Chinese firms reduce green investment as the uncertainty of subsidies rises. This effect is identified from weather-driven fluctuations in air pollution that lead to fluctuations in subsidy allocations: Firms in cities where weather-driven subsidy uncertainty is high engage in less green R&D investment, patent applications, and research staff. Industries that are heavy emitters and those focused on environmental technologies are more affected. The results suggest that policy uncertainty may originate not only from political and macroeconomic shocks but from behavioral mechanisms that link policy to salient recent conditions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31401
    Schlagworte: Umweltpolitik; Umwelttechnik; Forschung; Subvention; Luftverschmutzung; Industrieforschung; Investition; China; Risiko; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
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  15. An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty
    Autor*in: Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K.... mehr

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    We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and by reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by more than 10%. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers' real income

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31600
    Schlagworte: Brexit; Import; Außenhandelsrisiko; Wirkungsanalyse; Außenhandelspreis; Großbritannien; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Institutions and the Macroeconomy; International Economic Order and Integration; Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations; Empirical Studies of Trade; Economic Integration
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  16. Which Firms Gain from Digital Advertising? Evidence from a Field Experiment
    Autor*in: Dai, Weijia; Kim, Hyunjin; Luca, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Measuring the returns of advertising opportunities continues to be a challenge for many businesses. We design and run a field experiment in collaboration with Yelp across 18,294 firms in the restaurant industry to understand which types of businesses... mehr

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    Measuring the returns of advertising opportunities continues to be a challenge for many businesses. We design and run a field experiment in collaboration with Yelp across 18,294 firms in the restaurant industry to understand which types of businesses gain more from digital advertising. We randomly assign 7,209 restaurants to freely receive Yelp's standard ads package for three months. The scale of the experiment gives us a unique opportunity to assess the heterogeneity in advertising effectiveness across a variety of business attributes. We find that restaurants that receive advertising on Yelp observe on average a 7-19% increase in a wide range of purchase intention outcomes, as well as a 5% increase in customer reviews. We find that gains are heterogeneous across firms, with independent and higher-rated businesses observing larger gains, as well as those with more reviews and higher pre-experiment organic traffic

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30925
    Schlagworte: Online-Marketing; Werbewirkung; Unternehmenserfolg; Feldforschung; USA; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Marketing and Advertising
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  17. Allocative Skill
    Autor*in: Caplin, Andrew; Deming, David J.; Leth-Petersen, Søren; Weidmann, Ben
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Jobs increasingly require good decision-making. Workers are valued not only for how much they can do, but also for their ability to decide what to do. In this paper we develop a theory and measurement paradigm for assessing individual variation in... mehr

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    Jobs increasingly require good decision-making. Workers are valued not only for how much they can do, but also for their ability to decide what to do. In this paper we develop a theory and measurement paradigm for assessing individual variation in the ability to make good decisions about resource allocation, which we call allocative skill. We begin with a model where agents strategically acquire information about factor productivity under time and effort constraints. Conditional on such constraints, agents' allocative skill can be defined as the marginal product of their attention. We test our model in a field survey where participants act as managers assigning fictional workers with heterogeneous productivity schedules to job tasks and are paid in proportion to output. Allocative skill strongly predicts full-time labor earnings, even conditional on IQ, numeracy, and education, and the return to allocative skill is greater in decision-intensive occupations

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31674
    Schlagworte: Qualifikation; Entscheidung; Organisationale Entscheidung; Arbeitsproduktivität; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
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  18. Algorithmic Recommendations and Human Discretion
    Autor*in: Angelova, Victoria; Dobbie, Will; Yang, Crystal
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new... mehr

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    Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure the impact of human discretion over an algorithm on the accuracy of decisions, even when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed, in the context of bail decisions. We find that 90% of the judges in our setting underperform the algorithm when they make a discretionary override, with most making override decisions that are no better than random. Yet the remaining 10% of judges outperform the algorithm in terms of both accuracy and fairness when they make a discretionary override. We provide suggestive evidence on the behavior underlying these differences in judge performance, showing that the high-performing judges are more likely to use relevant private information and are less likely to overreact to highly salient events compared to the low-performing judges

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31747
    Schlagworte: Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Algorithmus; Asymmetrische Information; Rechtsberufe; Rechtsdurchsetzung; Econometrics; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; General
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  19. The Incidence of Adverse Selection
    Theory and Evidence from Health Insurance Choices
    Autor*in: Geruso, Michael; Layton, Timothy; Leive, Adam
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Existing research on selection in insurance markets focuses on how adverse selection distorts prices and misallocates products across people. This ignores the distributional consequences of who pays the higher prices. In this paper, we show that the... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Existing research on selection in insurance markets focuses on how adverse selection distorts prices and misallocates products across people. This ignores the distributional consequences of who pays the higher prices. In this paper, we show that the distributional incidence depends on the correlations between income, expected costs, and insurance demand. We discuss the general implications for the design of subsidies and mandates when policymakers value both equity and efficiency. Then, in an empirical case study of a large employer, we show that the incidence of selection falls on higher-income employees, who are more likely to choose generous health insurance plans

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31435
    Schlagworte: Krankenversicherung; Marktstruktur; Adverse Selektion; Gesundheitspolitik; Informationsökonomik; USA; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Incidence; Health Insurance, Public and Private
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  20. The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns
    evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics
    Autor*in: Jung, Seungho; Lee, Jongmin; Lee, Seohyun
    Erschienen: Oct 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from... mehr

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    We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781557759672
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 251
    Schlagworte: Geopolitical risk; Textual analysis; Stock returns; Inter-Korean relations; General Financial Markets; Geopolitical Risk, Textual Analysis and Stock Returns; GPRNK Index; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; National Security and War; Stock Return
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The impact of political uncertainty on asset prices
    the case of United Kingdom's EU membership referendum
    Autor*in: Hanna, Joseph; Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; MacDonald, Margaux
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one... mehr

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    How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of "Leave" result caused British stocks (FTSE All-Share) to decline by 0.004 percent, and the Pound to depreciate by 0.006 percent against the euro. We find negative and significant effects for most sub-sectors, and negative spill-overs to other EU member countries. We show that the differential impact across sectors and countries can be explained by differences in the trade exposures

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513568645
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 27
    Schlagworte: Brexit; EU referendum; political uncertainty; high frequency data; Brexit; EU Referendum; High Frequency Data; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Political Uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen