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  1. Weather, Climate, and Technology Adoption
    An Application to Drought-Tolerant Corn in the United States
    Autor*in: McFadden, Jonathan R.; Smith, David; Wallander, Steven
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Crop farmers have few short-run options for reducing downside production risk from changes in drought frequency and intensity due to ongoing climate change. However, one recently available option is drought-tolerant (DT) varieties. We determine how... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Crop farmers have few short-run options for reducing downside production risk from changes in drought frequency and intensity due to ongoing climate change. However, one recently available option is drought-tolerant (DT) varieties. We determine how recent drought exposure, drought risk, and other climatic features have influenced adoption of DT corn--a water-intensive crop of particular economic importance due to its large share of U.S. agricultural value. Our empirical analysis is motivated by a state-contingent economic framework that accommodates farmers' beliefs about future drought based on objective drought risk and exposure. Using a representative sample of U.S. farmers' fields, we implement a novel econometric method, spatial first differences, that can reduce concerns of omitted variables bias. We find that long-run temperatures and drought risk--rather than short-run drought exposure in recent prior years--led to increased adoption of DT corn varieties in 2016. Farmers are more likely to plant DT corn on highly erodible land and less likely to irrigate such varieties, consistent with the fact that the western Corn Belt was of major marketing focus during the early years of commercialization

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30121
    Schlagworte: Dürre; Mais; Innovation; Maisanbau; Technischer Fortschritt; Ernteertrag; USA; Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment; R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  2. Cover Crops, Drought, Yield and Risk
    an Analysis of U.S. Soybean Production
    Autor*in: Dong, Fengxia
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Besides a variety of production and environmental benefits, cover cropping has been advocated as a mean to increase resilience to drought. We explored factors influencing farmer's adoption of cover crops and examined the effects of cover crops on... mehr

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    Besides a variety of production and environmental benefits, cover cropping has been advocated as a mean to increase resilience to drought. We explored factors influencing farmer's adoption of cover crops and examined the effects of cover crops on soybean yield and its risk using USDA's 2018 ARMS Phase II Soybean Production Practices and Costs Report and Phase III Soybean Costs and Returns Report. Incorporating drought occurrence in current year and previous 5 years into our analysis, we find that previous occurrence of drought did not affect farmers' adoption of cover crops and the effects of cover crops on yield and its risk are mixed. Under a drought condition, cover crops reduced soybean yield and increased yield variation; but in the meantime, they reduced the risk of crop failure, or made yield less negatively skewed. The insignificant effect of previous drought on cover crop adoption and the mixture of positive and negative effects of cover crops on yield and its risk imply that farmers are divided in their acceptance of cover crops as a mean to build resilience to drought

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30122
    Schlagworte: Bodenwirtschaft; Nachhaltigkeit; Agrarprodukt; Sojabohne; Wassermangel; Dürre; Ernteertrag; USA; Zwischenfrucht; Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  3. Estimating the Effect of Easements on Agricultural Production
    Autor*in: Karwowski, Nicole
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    US crops face higher losses as growing season temperatures rise and destructive disasters become commonplace. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) easement programs offer an adaptation strategy to improve agricultural resilience.... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    US crops face higher losses as growing season temperatures rise and destructive disasters become commonplace. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) easement programs offer an adaptation strategy to improve agricultural resilience. Easements impact agricultural production directly by reducing planting on marginal land and indirectly by improving yields on surrounding cropland. I use national USDA data from the past three decades to build a county-level panel. I employ a regression model with two-way fixed effects to quantify how easement land share impacts yields, risk, as well as acres planted, failed, and prevented planted. A 100% increase in land share of wetland easements increases yields by 0.34%, 0.77% and 0.46% for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Easements improve yields by mitigating the effect of excess precipitation and extreme degree days. Wetland easements reduce soybean losses from excess moisture, heat, and disease by $3.59, $6.07 and $11.23 for each dollar of liability. I also find evidence of a spillage effect in which producers reduce soybean and wheat acreage but increase corn production. This work quantifies the ecosystem benefits of easement habitats and uncovers program externalities including yield spillovers and a spillage effect. My results have policy implications for future NRCS funding and targeting decisions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30156
    Schlagworte: Pflanzenbau; Ernteertrag; Agrarpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; Agriculture; Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment; Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services; Biodiversity Conservation; Bioeconomics; Industrial Ecology; Government Policy
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  4. A Quantity-Based Approach to Constructing Climate Risk Hedge Portfolios
    Autor*in: Alekseev, Georgij; Giglio, Stefano; Maingi, Quinn; Selgrad, Julia; Stroebel, Johannes
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We propose a new methodology to build portfolios that hedge the economic and financial risks from climate change. Our quantity-based approach exploits information on how mutual fund managers trade in response to idiosyncratic changes in their climate... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We propose a new methodology to build portfolios that hedge the economic and financial risks from climate change. Our quantity-based approach exploits information on how mutual fund managers trade in response to idiosyncratic changes in their climate risk beliefs. We exploit two types of idiosyncratic belief shocks: (i) instances when fund advisers experience local extreme heat events that are known to shift climate change beliefs, and (ii) instances when fund managers change the language in shareholder disclosures to express concerns about climate risks. We use the funds' observed portfolio changes around such idiosyncratic belief shocks to predict how investors will reallocate their capital in response to aggregate climate news shocks that shift the beliefs and asset demands of many investors and thus move equilibrium prices. We show that a portfolio that is long stocks that investors tend to buy after experiencing negative idiosyncratic climate belief shocks, and short stocks that investors tend to sell, appreciates in value in periods with negative aggregate climate news shocks. Our quantity-based portfolios have superior out-of-sample hedge performance compared to portfolios constructed using existing alternative methods. The key advantage of the quantity-based approach is that it learns from rich cross-sectional trading responses rather than time-series price information, which is particularly limited in the case of newly emerging risks such as those from climate change. We also demonstrate the versatility of the quantity-based approach by constructing successful hedge portfolios for aggregate unemployment and house price risk

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30703
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Risikomanagement; Portfolio-Management; Hedging; General; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading; General; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  5. When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
    Autor*in: Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Göbel, Maximilian; Goulet Coulombe, Philippe; Zhang, Boyuan
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30732
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Schätzung; Arktis; Model Construction and Estimation; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  6. Informationally Efficient Climate Policy
    Designing Markets to Measure and Price Externalities
    Autor*in: Lemoine, Derek
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    I study how policymakers can access and act on the information about climate change damages that is dispersed throughout the economy. I analyze a new dynamic deposit-refund instrument (called "carbon shares") that I show can: i) efficiently price... mehr

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    I study how policymakers can access and act on the information about climate change damages that is dispersed throughout the economy. I analyze a new dynamic deposit-refund instrument (called "carbon shares") that I show can: i) efficiently price emissions conditional on information, ii) efficiently incentivize removal of past emissions conditional on information, and iii) efficiently aggregate dispersed information about the social cost of emissions. Conventional emission taxes generally succeed at only the first of these objectives. Rather than projecting damages in all future periods and all possible states of the world in order to calculate the optimal tax, the regulator here estimates damages as they are realized and empowers markets to perform price discovery about future damages

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30535
    Schlagworte: Umweltpolitik; Emissionshandel; Ökosteuer; Umweltschutz; Motivation; Informationsmarkt; Unvollkommener Markt; Asymmetrische Information; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Government Policy
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  7. How Is the US Pricing Carbon? How Could We Price Carbon?
    Autor*in: Aldy, Joseph E.; Burtraw, Dallas; Fischer, Carolyn; Fowlie, Meredith; Williams, Roberton C.; Cropper, Maureen L.
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Economists have for decades recommended that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases be taxed--or otherwise priced--to provide incentives for their reduction. The United States does not have a federal carbon tax; however, many state and federal... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Economists have for decades recommended that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases be taxed--or otherwise priced--to provide incentives for their reduction. The United States does not have a federal carbon tax; however, many state and federal programs to reduce carbon emissions effectively price carbon--for example, through cap-and-trade systems or regulations. There are also programs that subsidize reductions in carbon emissions. At the 2022 meetings of the American Economic Association, the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis brought together five well-known economists--Joe Aldy, Dallas Burtraw, Carolyn Fischer, Meredith Fowlie, and Rob Williams--to discuss how the United States does, in fact, price carbon and how it could price carbon. Maureen Cropper chaired the panel. This paper summarizes their remarks

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30545
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Emissionshandel; Ökosteuer; Föderalismus; Teilstaat; USA; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Government Policy
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  8. Carbon Emissions Trading and Environmental Protection
    International Evidence
    Autor*in: Bai, Jennie; Ru, Hong
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study how the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETS) impacts emissions reductions and the usage of renewable energy using a panel sample of the largest 100 countries worldwide. Exploiting the cross-country variations in ETS... mehr

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    We study how the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETS) impacts emissions reductions and the usage of renewable energy using a panel sample of the largest 100 countries worldwide. Exploiting the cross-country variations in ETS implementations, we show that ETS adoption materially reduced greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide) emissions by 12.1% (18.1%). Moreover, ETSs reduced overall emissions by cutting fossil fuel usage, such as coal, by 23.70% while boosting the usage of renewable energy by 61.59%, on average. In contrast, the introduction of carbon taxes has a less effective impact on emissions reduction and fails to boost the usage of renewable energy

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30587
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Emissionshandel; Umweltpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Umweltschutz; Erneuerbare Energie; Förderung erneuerbarer Energien; Vergleich; Welt; Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Government Policy
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  9. Wildfire Influence on Recent US Pollution Trends
    Autor*in: Burke, Marshall; Childs, Marissa L.; Cuesta, Brandon de la; Qiu, Minghao; Li, Jessica; Gould, Carlos F.; Heft-Neal, Sam; Wara, Michael
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the US over the past several decades have led to large public health benefits, and the policies that helped drive these improvements are considered landmarks in successful environmental policymaking.... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the US over the past several decades have led to large public health benefits, and the policies that helped drive these improvements are considered landmarks in successful environmental policymaking. However, recent trends in PM2.5 concentrations, a key pollutant, have stagnated or begun to reverse throughout much of the US. We quantify the contribution of wildfire smoke to these trends and find that since 2016, wildfire smoke has significantly slowed or reversed previous improvements in average annual PM2.5 concentrations in two-thirds of US states, eroding 23% of previous gains on average in those states (equivalent to 3.6 years of air quality progress) and over 50% in multiple western states. Smoke influence on trends in extreme PM2.5 concentrations is detectable by 2010 and is concentrated in a dozen western states. Wildfire-driven increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations are unregulated under current air pollution law, and, absent additional intervention, wildfire's contribution to regional and national air quality trends is likely to grow as the climate continues to warm

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30882
    Schlagworte: Feuer; Luftverschmutzung; Umweltrecht; Teilstaat; USA; Environmental Economics; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  10. Will the Developing World's Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?
    Autor*in: Kahn, Matthew E.; Lall, Somik V.
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    As billions of people in the developing world seek to increase their living standards, their aspirations pose a challenge to global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The emerging middle class are buying and operating energy intensive durables... mehr

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    As billions of people in the developing world seek to increase their living standards, their aspirations pose a challenge to global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The emerging middle class are buying and operating energy intensive durables ranging from vehicles to air conditioners to computers. Owners of these durables represent an interest group with a stake in opposing carbon pricing. The political economy of encouraging middle class support for carbon pricing hinges on offsetting its perceived negative income effects. Rising environmentalism in the developing world could also increase support for credible GHG reduction policy. We quantify these effects as we estimate Engel curves of durables ownership, compare the grid's carbon intensity by nation and study the demographic correlates of support for prioritizing environmental protection

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30238
    Schlagworte: Mittelschicht; Konsumentenverhalten; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Umweltschutz; Klimaschutz; Engel-Kurve; Nachfragetheorie des Haushalts; Entwicklungsländer; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  11. Trade, Leakage, and the Design of a Carbon Tax
    Autor*in: Weisbach, David A.; Kortum, Samuel; Wang, Michael Y.; Yao, Yujia
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Climate policies vary widely across countries, with some countries imposing stringent emissions policies and others doing very little. When climate policies vary across countries, energy-intensive industries have an incentive to relocate to places... mehr

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    Climate policies vary widely across countries, with some countries imposing stringent emissions policies and others doing very little. When climate policies vary across countries, energy-intensive industries have an incentive to relocate to places with few or no emissions restrictions, an effect known as leakage. Relocated industries would continue to pollute but would be operating in a less desirable location. We consider solutions to the leakage problem in a simple setting where one region of the world imposes a climate policy and the rest of the world is passive. We solve the model analytically and also calibrate and simulate the model. Our model and analysis imply: (1) optimal climate policies tax both the supply of fossil fuels and the demand for fossil fuels; (2) on the demand side, absent administrative costs, optimal policies would tax both the use of fossil fuels in domestic production and the domestic consumption of goods created with fossil fuels, but with the tax rate on production lower due to leakage; (3) taxing only production (on the demand side), however, would be substantially simpler, and almost as effective as taxing both production and consumption, because it would avoid the need for border adjustments on imports of goods; (4) the effectiveness of the latter strategy depends on a low foreign elasticity of energy supply, which means that forming a taxing coalition to ensure a low foreign elasticity of energy supply can act as a substitute for border adjustments on goods

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30244
    Schlagworte: Betriebliche Standortwahl; Umweltpolitik; Ökosteuer; Umweltabgabe; Klimawandel; Trade and Environment; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  12. Expecting Floods
    Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications
    Autor*in: Jia, Ruixue; Ma, Xiao; Xie, Victoria Wenxin
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences for the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data from the United States during 1998-2018, we document that (1) increased flood risk... mehr

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    Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences for the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data from the United States during 1998-2018, we document that (1) increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; and (2) flood events reduce output in the short run while their impact on firm entry and employment is limited. Motivated by these findings, we construct a spatial equilibrium model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms' location choices and workers' employment, which we use to estimate the aggregate impact of increased flood risk on the economy. We find that flood risk reduced U.S. aggregate output by 0.52% in 2018, 80% of which stemmed from expectation effects and 20% from direct damages. We also apply our model to study the distributional consequences and forecast the impact of future changes in flood risk. Our results highlight the importance of considering the adjustment of firms and workers in response to risk in evaluating the consequences of natural disasters

     
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  13. Carbon Pricing, Clean Electricity Standards, and Clean Electricity Subsidies on the Path to Zero Emissions
    Autor*in: Borenstein, Severin; Kellogg, Ryan
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We categorize the primary incentive-based mechanisms under consideration for addressing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation--pricing carbon, setting intensity standards, and subsidizing clean energy--and compare their market outcomes... mehr

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    We categorize the primary incentive-based mechanisms under consideration for addressing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation--pricing carbon, setting intensity standards, and subsidizing clean energy--and compare their market outcomes under similar expansions of clean electricity generation. While pricing emissions gives strong incentives to first eliminate generation with the highest social cost, a clean energy standard incentivizes earliest phaseout of the generation with the highest private cost. We show that the importance of this distinction depends on the correlation between private costs and emissions rates. We then estimate this correlation for US electricity generation and fuel prices as of 2019. The results indicate that the emissions difference between a carbon tax and clean energy standard that phase out fossil fuel generation over the same timeframe may actually be quite small, though it depends on fossil fuel prices during the phaseout. We also discuss how each of these policy options is likely to impact electricity prices, quantity demanded, government revenue, and economic efficiency. Large pre-existing markups of retail electricity prices over marginal costs are likely to considerably weaken or even reverse the usual assumed efficiency advantage of carbon pricing policies over alternatives, including direct subsidization of clean electricity generation

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30263
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Umweltpolitik; Anreizregulierung; Emissionshandel; Ökosteuer; Umweltstandard; Strompreis; USA; Electric Utilities; Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Government Policy
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  14. Fighting Climate Change
    International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies
    Autor*in: Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Fabre, Adrien; Kruse, Tobias; Planterose, Bluebery; Sanchez Chico, Ana; Stantcheva, Stefanie
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using new surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in twenty countries that account for 72% of global CO2 emissions, we study the understanding of and attitudes toward climate change and climate policies. We show that, across countries, support for... mehr

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    Using new surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in twenty countries that account for 72% of global CO2 emissions, we study the understanding of and attitudes toward climate change and climate policies. We show that, across countries, support for climate policies hinges on three key perceptions centered around the effectiveness of the policies in reducing emissions (effectiveness concerns), their distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and their impact on the respondents' household (self-interest). We show experimentally that information specifically ad-dressing these key concerns can substantially increase the support for climate policies in many countries. Explaining how policies work and who can benefit from them is critical to foster policy support, whereas simply informing people about the impacts of climate change is not effective. Furthermore, we identify several socioeconomic and lifestyle factors - most notably education, political leanings, and availability of public transportation - that are significantly correlated with both policy views and overall reasoning and beliefs about climate policies. However, it is difficult to predict beliefs or policy views based on these characteristics only

     
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  15. Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
    An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches
    Autor*in: Gouel, Christophe
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A popular approach for estimating climate change impacts on agriculture is to rely on supply-side reduced-form regressions. These methods, which include the Ricardian approach, focus on how farmers and agricultural land market react to changes in... mehr

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    A popular approach for estimating climate change impacts on agriculture is to rely on supply-side reduced-form regressions. These methods, which include the Ricardian approach, focus on how farmers and agricultural land market react to changes in climatic conditions, under the implicit assumption that crop prices stay constant. To test whether this assumption is innocuous, I use a quantitative trade model of global agricultural markets to emulate the findings of a supply-side approach as well as to calculate welfare changes accounting for price changes. The results show that both welfare measures are weakly correlated and can be of opposite signs, and that the supply-side approach tends to underestimate the cost of climate change. The main drivers of these differences are the neglects of the imperfect substitutability of crops in demand and of terms-of-trade changes. The supply-side approach provides a valid approximation of the welfare cost of climate change only if crops are almost perfectly substitutable in demand and trade costs are neglected, a situation in which it is reasonable to assume constant prices

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30279
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Landnutzung; Landwirtschaft; Wirkungsanalyse; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Angebotsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; Trade and Environment; Agriculture in International Trade; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Land Use Patterns
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  16. Natural Disasters and Municipal Bonds
    Autor*in: Auh, Jun Kyung; Choi, Jaewon; Deryugina, Tatyana; Park, Tim
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Climate change is increasing the frequency of natural disasters, which could make municipal bonds a riskier asset class. We study the effects of natural disasters on municipal bond returns, exploiting the repeat sales approach to overcome the... mehr

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    Climate change is increasing the frequency of natural disasters, which could make municipal bonds a riskier asset class. We study the effects of natural disasters on municipal bond returns, exploiting the repeat sales approach to overcome the challenge that municipal bonds trade extremely infrequently. We find substantial price effects that materialize gradually: returns of uninsured bonds fall slowly in the weeks following a disaster, by 0.31% on average, translating into investor losses of almost $10 billion. Source of bond revenue, bond insurance, disaster severity, federal disaster aid, and local financial conditions all affect the magnitude of the price effects

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30280
    Schlagworte: Kommunalobligation; Öffentliche Anleihe; Katastrophe; Investitionsrisiko; Klimawandel; USA; General; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  17. The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality in the United States
    Benefits and Costs of Adaptation
    Autor*in: Deschênes, Olivier
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper reviews and extends the recent empirical literature on the impact of climate change on mortality and adaptation in the United States. The analysis produces several new facts. First, the reductions in the impact of extreme heat on mortality... mehr

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    This paper reviews and extends the recent empirical literature on the impact of climate change on mortality and adaptation in the United States. The analysis produces several new facts. First, the reductions in the impact of extreme heat on mortality risk previously documented up to 2004 have continued up to 2019, consistent with continued investments in health-protecting adaptations to high temperatures. The second part of the paper examines the private and external costs of electricity generation and consumption related to high temperatures, a commonly-used proxy for measuring the consumption of adaptation services. Extreme temperatures increase electricity demand in the residential sector (relative to moderate temperatures), but not in the commercial, industrial, and transportation end-use sectors. The additional electricity demand in response to high temperatures results in significant external costs due to the release of local and global pollutants caused by the combustion of fossil fuels in order to produce electricity. These external costs, documented for the first time in this paper, are one order of magnitude larger than the private cost of adaptation associated with electricity consumption

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30282
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Wetter; Sterblichkeit; Gesundheitsvorsorge; Elektrizität; Energiekonsum; Externer Effekt; USA; Health; Energy; Environmental Economics; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  18. Adverse Selection as a Policy Instrument
    Unraveling Climate Change
    Autor*in: Cicala, Steve; Hémous, David; Olsen, Morten
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper applies principles of adverse selection to overcome obstacles that prevent the implementation of Pigouvian policies to internalize externalities. Focusing on negative externalities from production (such as pollution), we consider settings... mehr

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    This paper applies principles of adverse selection to overcome obstacles that prevent the implementation of Pigouvian policies to internalize externalities. Focusing on negative externalities from production (such as pollution), we consider settings in which aggregate emissions are known, but individual contributions are unobserved by the government. We evaluate a policy that gives firms the option to pay a tax on their voluntarily and verifiably disclosed emissions, or pay an output tax based on the average rate of emissions among the undisclosed firms. The certification of relatively clean firms raises the output-based tax, setting off a process of unraveling in favor of disclosure. We derive sufficient statistics formulas to calculate the welfare of such a program relative to mandatory output or emissions taxes. We find that the voluntary certification mechanism would deliver significant gains over output-based taxation in two empirical applications: methane emissions from oil and gas fields, and carbon emissions from imported steel

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30283
    Schlagworte: Umweltbelastung; Umweltabgabe; Ökosteuer; Pigou-Steuer; Umweltpolitik; Adverse Selektion; Internalisierung externer Effekte; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods; Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law; Economics of Regulation; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  19. Climate Change Around the World
    Autor*in: Krusell, Per; Smith, Anthony A.
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The economic effects of climate change vary across both time and space. To study these effects, this paper builds a global economy-climate model featuring a high degree of geographic resolution. Carbon emissions from the use of energy in production... mehr

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    The economic effects of climate change vary across both time and space. To study these effects, this paper builds a global economy-climate model featuring a high degree of geographic resolution. Carbon emissions from the use of energy in production increase the Earth's (average) temperature and local, or regional, temperatures respond more or less sensitively to this increase. Each of the approximately 19,000 regions makes optimal consumption-savings and energy-use decisions as its climate (or regional temperature) and, consequently, its productivity change over time. The relationship between regional temperature and regional productivity has an inverted U-shape, calibrated so that the high-resolution model replicates estimates of aggregate global damages from global warming. At the global level, then, the high-resolution model nests standard one-region economy-climate models, while at the same time it features realistic spatial variation in climate and economic activity. The central result is that the effects of climate change vary dramatically across space---with many regions gaining while others lose---and the global average effects, while negative, are dwarfed quantitatively by the differences across space. A tax on carbon increases average (global) welfare, but there is a large disparity of views on it across regions, with both winners and losers. Climate change also leads to large increases in global inequality, across both regions and countries. These findings vary little as capital markets range from closed (autarky) to open (free capital mobility)

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30338
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Region; Umweltbelastung; Umweltkosten; Umweltschutz; Umweltschutzinvestition; Ökosteuer; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Welt; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
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  20. International Climate Agreements and the Scream of Greta
    Autor*in: Maggi, Giovanni; Staiger, Robert W.
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Current policies directed at mitigating global warming appear unlikely to prevent temperatures from rising to levels that would trigger a precipitous increase in the costs of climate change. Various attempts at international cooperation to avoid this... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Current policies directed at mitigating global warming appear unlikely to prevent temperatures from rising to levels that would trigger a precipitous increase in the costs of climate change. Various attempts at international cooperation to avoid this outcome have failed. Why is this problem so intractable? Can we expect an 11th-hour solution? Will some countries, or even all, succumb on the equilibrium path? We address these questions through a model that features the possibility of climate catastrophe and emphasizes the role of international externalities that a country's policies exert on other countries and intertemporal externalities that current generations exert on future generations. Within this setting, we explore the extent to which international agreements can mitigate the problem of climate change. Our analysis illuminates the role that international climate agreements can be expected to play in addressing climate change, and it points to important limitations on what such agreements can achieve, even under the best of circumstances

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30681
    Schlagworte: Internationale Klimapolitik; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Klimawandel; Externer Effekt; Generationengerechtigkeit; Theorie; Welt; International Economic Order and Integration; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  21. Measuring Religion from Behavior
    Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan
    Autor*in: Dube, Oeindrila; Blumenstock, Joshua; Callen, Michael
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Religious adherence has been hard to study in part because it is hard to measure. We develop a new measure of religious adherence, which is granular in both time and space, using anonymized mobile phone transaction records. After validating the... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Religious adherence has been hard to study in part because it is hard to measure. We develop a new measure of religious adherence, which is granular in both time and space, using anonymized mobile phone transaction records. After validating the measure with traditional data, we show how it can shed light on the nature of religious adherence in Islamic societies. Exploiting random variation in climate, we find that as economic conditions in Afghanistan worsen, people become more religiously observant. The effects are most pronounced in areas where droughts have the biggest economic consequences, such as croplands without access to irrigation

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30694
    Schlagworte: Religionsgemeinschaft; Islam; Messung; Mobiltelefon; Klimawandel; Verhalten; Verhaltensökonomik; Afghanistan; Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products; Agriculture; Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; General; Religion
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  22. Wildfire influence on recent US pollution trends
    Autor*in: Burke, Marshall; Childs, Marissa L.; Cuesta, Brandon de la; Qiu, Minghao; Li, Jessica; Gould, Carlos F.; Heft-Neal, Sam; Wara, Michael
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), Stanford, CA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) ; no. 23, 09 (January, 2023)
    NBER working paper series ; 30882
    Schlagworte: Feuer; Luftverschmutzung; Umweltrecht; Teilstaat; USA; Environmental Economics; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Evolution of Risk Aversion over Five Years after a Major Natural Disaster
    Autor*in: Ingwersen, Nicholas; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The impact of exposure to a major unanticipated natural disaster on the evolution of survivors' attitudes toward risk is examined, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in combination with rich... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The impact of exposure to a major unanticipated natural disaster on the evolution of survivors' attitudes toward risk is examined, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in combination with rich population-representative longitudinal survey data spanning the five years after the tsunami. Respondents chose among pairs of hypothetical income streams. Those directly exposed to the tsunami made choices consistent with greater willingness to take on risk relative to those not directly exposed to the tsunami. These differences are short-lived: starting a year later, there is no evidence of differences in willingness to take on risk between the two groups. These conclusions hold for tsunami-related exposures measured at the individual and community level. Apparently, tsunami survivors were inclined to assume greater financial risk in the short-term while rebuilding their lives after the disaster

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31102
    Schlagworte: Überschwemmung; Katastrophe; Konsumentenverhalten; Risikoaversion; Entscheidung unter Risiko; Pazifischer Ozean; Aceh; Sumatra; Indonesien; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  24. Five Myths About Carbon Pricing
    Autor*in: Metcalf, Gilbert E.
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    While carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carbon taxes: ... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    While carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carbon taxes: 1) that a carbon price will hurt economic growth; 2) that carbon pricing will kill jobs; 3) that a carbon tax and cap and trade program have the same economic impacts; 4) that we can't achieve carbon reduction targets with a carbon tax; and 5) that carbon pricing is regressive. I then discuss implications for policy making

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31104
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Emissionshandel; Ökosteuer; Wirkungsanalyse; Meinung; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Government Policy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  25. Four Facts About ESG Beliefs and Investor Portfolios
    Autor*in: Giglio, Stefano; Maggiori, Matteo; Stroebel, Johannes; Tan, Zhenhao; Utkus, Stephen P.; Xu, Xiao
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We analyze survey data on ESG beliefs and preferences in a large panel of retail investors linked to administrative data on their investment portfolios. The survey elicits investors' expectations of long-term ESG equity returns and asks about their... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We analyze survey data on ESG beliefs and preferences in a large panel of retail investors linked to administrative data on their investment portfolios. The survey elicits investors' expectations of long-term ESG equity returns and asks about their motivations, if any, to invest in ESG assets. We document four facts. First, investors generally expected ESG investments to underperform the market. Between mid-2021 and late-2022, the average expected 10-year annualized return of ESG investments relative to the overall stock market was -1.4%. Second, there is substantial heterogeneity across investors in their ESG return expectations and their motives for ESG investing: 45% of survey respondents do not see any reason to invest in ESG, 25% are primarily motivated by ethical considerations, 22% are driven by climate hedging motives, and 7% are motivated by return expectations. Third, there is a link between individuals' reported ESG investment motives and their actual investment behaviors, with the highest ESG portfolio holdings among individuals who report ethics-driven investment motives. Fourth, financial considerations matter independently of other investment motives: we find meaningful ESG holdings only for investors who expect these investments to outperform the market, even among those investors who reported that their most important ESG investment motives were ethical or hedging reasons

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31114
    Schlagworte: Anlageverhalten; Nachhaltige Kapitalanlage; Corporate Social Responsibility; Portfolio-Management; Behavioral Finance; Household Finance; General; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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