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Displaying results 1 to 21 of 21.

  1. How good am I?
    effects and mechanisms behind salient rank
    Author: Megalokonomou, Rigissa; Zhang, Yi
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  [Monash University, Monash Business School, Department of Economics], [Clayton]

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    Series: Discussion paper / Monash University, Department of Economics ; no. 2023, 07
    Subjects: achievement rank; salience; random classroom assignment; mechanisms; survey data; middle schools; mediation analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Carbon pricing and inflation expectations
    evidence from France
    Author: Hensel, Jannik; Mangiante, Giacomo; Moretti, Luca
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper examines the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and its implications for central banks' price stability mandate. Carbon policy shocks are identified using high-frequency identification and combined with French... more

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    This paper examines the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and its implications for central banks' price stability mandate. Carbon policy shocks are identified using high-frequency identification and combined with French firm-level survey data. A change in carbon price increases firms' inflation expectations as well as their own expected and realized price growth. The effect on price expectations is more persistent than on actual price growth, resulting in negative forecast errors in the medium-/long-run. We show that a significant portion of the increase in inflation expectations is driven by indirect effects. Firms rely on their own business conditions to form expectations about aggregate price dynamics. Therefore, the expected positive growth in their own prices significantly contributes to the observed increase in inflation expectations. Firms' responses to the shocks vary based on their energy intensity. Low energy-intensive firms are worse forecasters of the impact that the shocks will have on the evolution of their own prices.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279302
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10552 (2023)
    Subjects: climate policies; carbon pricing; inflation expectations; monetary policy; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes
    Author: Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; Glas, Alexander
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics, [Nürnberg]

    Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the... more

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    Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open interval. This pile-up of probabilities negatively affects estimates of histogram moments and leads to a divergence between average expected inflation measured by probabilistic and point forecasts. The consistency of predictions can be improved by using an alternative design of the response scale that allows respondents to state more detailed beliefs for higher inflation ranges.

     
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    hdl: 10419/268401
    Series: FAU discussion papers in economics ; no. 2023, 01
    Subjects: Probabilistic expectations; inflation; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Unintended effects of the flexible grading policy
    Author: Ozsoy, Mehlika; Rodríguez-Planas, Núria
    Published: January 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using an unbalanced panel of 23,007 academic records spanning from Spring 2019 to Spring 2022 representing one fourth of Queens College student population; and estimating event study analyses with individual fixed effects to control for... more

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    Using an unbalanced panel of 23,007 academic records spanning from Spring 2019 to Spring 2022 representing one fourth of Queens College student population; and estimating event study analyses with individual fixed effects to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, we find unintended effects of the flexible grading policy (FGP), which allowed students to exercise the pass/fail option during the first academic year of the pandemic. Once the policy was no longer available, students who had used it underperformed relative to their own pre-pandemic performance relative to the change in performance of students who had never used the policy. FGP users earned 5.3% lower GPA in Spring 2021 and 4.7% lower GPA in Fall 2021 relative to Fall 2019 relative to the change observed among FGP non-users. This pattern is robust to sensitivity analysis and holds across tiers of the 2019 cumulative GPA distribution, as well as across various socio-demographic groups. Furthermore, these detrimental effects increased with the intensity of the policy use. Students' response to a survey rules out that these findings may be driven by pandemic-related health shocks, childcare disruptions, or challenges with online learning, financial aid, or job loss. We estimate that using the FGP is associated with a 16% lower likelihood of graduating and a 18% lower likelihood of graduating on-time by Spring 2022.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272514
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15887
    Subjects: flexible grading policy; unbalanced panel of academic records; transcript data; event analysis; individual fixed effects; survey data; GPA; college graduation and on-time graduation; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Nonresponse bias in trust surveys
    Author: Bergh, Andreas; Bjørnskov, Christian; Öhrvall, Richard
    Published: February 23, 2023
    Publisher:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    Social trust is typically measured using surveys that ask people if they agree that most people can be trusted. A potential problem is that falling response rates plague these surveys. If nonresponses are systematic, comparisons of social trust over... more

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    Social trust is typically measured using surveys that ask people if they agree that most people can be trusted. A potential problem is that falling response rates plague these surveys. If nonresponses are systematic, comparisons of social trust over time will be biased. We examine social and legal trust among non-respondents by conducting a classroom survey where the first part included questions on social and institutional trust and is answered during class, whereas a second part of the survey is handed in by respondents later. Surveys from 300 Danish and Swedish university students suggest that if anything, social trust among survey responders is somewhat lower than among non-responders. Using two waves of the Swedish National Election Study, we also show that conditional on education, social trust is uncorrelated to dropping out of the panel survey.

     
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    hdl: 10419/297251
    Series: IFN working paper ; no. 1455 (2023)
    Subjects: Social trust; legal trust; survey data; nonresponse bias
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Crisis experience and the deep roots of Covid-19 vaccination preferences
    Author: Borisova, Ekaterina; Gründler, Klaus; Hackenberger, Armin; Harter, Anina; Potrafke, Niklas; Schoors, Koen
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We examine the deep roots of preferences for vaccination against COVID-19, moving beyond proximate factors which can only account for part of the observable heterogeneity in the willingness to get vaccinated. Our model on experience-based learning... more

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    We examine the deep roots of preferences for vaccination against COVID-19, moving beyond proximate factors which can only account for part of the observable heterogeneity in the willingness to get vaccinated. Our model on experience-based learning predicts that exposure to past disruptive crises increases individuals' willingness to acquire and take a promising remedy when new crises occur. Using micro-level data on vaccination preferences for individuals from 19 countries, we find strong evidence for our prediction. We investigate the role of competing vaccines exploiting original geocoded survey data from Russia. Consistent with our theory, past crisis experience decreases vaccination willingness when individuals have learned to distrust the effectiveness of government administered remedies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271992
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10348 (2023)
    Subjects: Covid-19 vaccination; vaccination preferences; crisis experience; experience effects; survey data; geocoded data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Pandemic consumption
    Author: Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian; Kornejew, Martin
    Published: April 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper examines how households adjusted their consumption behavior in response to COVID-19 infection risk during the early phase of the pandemic. We use a monthly consumption survey specifically designed by the German Statistical Office covering... more

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    This paper examines how households adjusted their consumption behavior in response to COVID-19 infection risk during the early phase of the pandemic. We use a monthly consumption survey specifically designed by the German Statistical Office covering the second wave of COVID-19 infections from September to November 2020. Households reduced their consumption expenditures on durables and social activities by, respectively, 24 percent and 36 percent in response to one hundred extra infections per one hundred thousand inhabitants per week. The effect was concentrated among the elderly, whose mortality risk from COVID-19 infection was arguably the highest.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272041
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10397 (2023)
    Subjects: consumption; health risk; pandemic; COVID-19; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?
    Author: Di Pace, Federico; Mangiante, Giacomo; Masolo, Riccardo
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy

    We study whether firms' expectations react to the Bank of England's monetary policy announcements by comparing the responses to the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey filed immediately before and after a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. On the... more

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    We study whether firms' expectations react to the Bank of England's monetary policy announcements by comparing the responses to the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey filed immediately before and after a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. On the one hand, we find that firms' expectations and uncertainty about their own business for the most part do not respond to high-frequency monetary policy surprises. On the other hand, announced changes in the monetary policy rate induce firms to revise their price expectations, with rate hikes resulting in a reduction in price expectations and the uncertainty surrounding them

     
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    hdl: 10419/298320
    Series: Working paper / Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore ; n. 127 (February 2023)
    Subjects: Central bank communication; firm expectations; high-frequency identification; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
    Author: Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss... more

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    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and point to directions for future research. Our literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the ZEW Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283583
    Series: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 062 (12/2023)
    Subjects: disagreement; expectations; forecasts; rationality; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes
    Author: Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; Glas, Alexander
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial... more

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    Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation regimes distorts estimates of histogram moments and forces households to provide probabilistic expectations that are inconsistent with the point forecasts and (ii) how shifting the scale improves the consistency of predictions by allowing respondents to state more detailed beliefs about higher inflation ranges. We also explore potential disadvantages of adjusting the response scale.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283596
    Series: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 072 (12/2023)
    Subjects: Probabilistic expectations; inflation; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Consumers' macroeconomic expectations
    Author: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael
    Published: October 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy... more

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    After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We thus survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282397
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10709 (2023)
    Subjects: consumers' macroeconomic expectations; central bank communication; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?
    Author: Di Pace, Federico; Mangiante, Giacomo; Masolo, Riccardo
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 1014 (February 2023)
    Subjects: Central bank communication; firm expectations; high-frequency identification; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Household Finance and Consumption Survey in Malta
    main results from the fourth wave
    Author: Antonaroli, Valentina; Deguara, Warren; Muscat, Aleandra
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of Malta, [Valletta]

    This article summarizes the main findings from the fourth wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Malta. The HFCS is part of a co-ordinated research project led by the European Central Bank and involves national central banks... more

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    This article summarizes the main findings from the fourth wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Malta. The HFCS is part of a co-ordinated research project led by the European Central Bank and involves national central banks of all euro area countries and selected non-euro area EU member states. The results presented are obtained from micro-data collected for reference year 2020 from households residing in Malta and compared with the previous three waves. The HFCS provides household-level data on assets, liabilities, wealth and income. As such, it plays an important role in analysing the economic behaviour of Maltese households and contributes to a better understanding of the developments underlying macro statistics. The results also provide a glimpse of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household balance sheets and finances.

     
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    hdl: 10419/298497
    Series: Working papers / Central Bank of Malta ; WP/2023, 01
    Subjects: Household finance; consumption; wealth; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Measuring unemployment in crisis
    effects of COVID-19 on potential biases in the CPS
    Author: Heffetz, Ori; Reeves, Daniel B.
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  [The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality], [Jerusalem, Israel]

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    Series: [Discussion paper / The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality] ; [# 753 (April 2023)]
    Subjects: unemployment; COVID; rotation group bias; nonresponse bias; selection bias; survey data; difficulty of reaching; number of contact attempts; paradata
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Die Zählung der Reihe wurde der Übersicht in einen später erschienenen Stück entnommen
  15. Consumers' macroeconomic expectations
    Author: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  [Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover], [Hannover]

    After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy... more

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    After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We thus survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283165
    Series: [Hannover economic papers (HEP)] / [Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover] ; [Nummer: 714 (Oct 2023)]
    Subjects: Consumers' macroeconomic expectations; central bank communication; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. A score function to prioritize editing in household survey data
    a machine learning approach
    Author: Forteza, Nicolás; García-Uribe, Sandra
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Series: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2330
    Subjects: machine learning; predictive models; selective editing; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Pandemic consumption
    Author: Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian; Kornejew, Martin
    Published: 26 April 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP18120
    Subjects: consumption; health risk; pandemic; COVID-19; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Aggregate implications of heterogeneous inflation expectations
    the role of individual experience
    Author: Pedemonte, Mathieu O.; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Series: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series ; no. 23, 04 (January 2023)
    Subjects: Expectations; survey data; belief formation; heterogeneous expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. On FIRE, news, and expectations
    Author: Born, Benjamin; Enders, Zeno; Müller, Gernot J.
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

    The full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption is at the core of modern macroeconomics. We revisit recent evidence which rejects FIRE based on survey data. It relates forecast errors to news at different levels of aggregation. The... more

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    The full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption is at the core of modern macroeconomics. We revisit recent evidence which rejects FIRE based on survey data. It relates forecast errors to news at different levels of aggregation. The evidence based on consensus forecasts testifies against the full-information assumption, the evidence based on data for individual forecasters against rational expectations. In contrast to earlier survey evidence that was largely dismissed as irrelevant, the recent evidence is likely to have a lasting impact for two reasons. First, the global financial crisis of 2007/08 has led to a certain uneasiness with the state of macro and a readiness to embrace new ideas. Second, the recent literature has put forward a number of promising alternative models of the expectation-formation process. We review these at the end of the paper.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273075
    Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 42 (2023, June)
    Subjects: Rational expectations; full information; FIRE; crises; survey data; reaction to news; expectations revolution
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Household Finance and Consumption Survey
    a comparison of the main results for Malta with the euro area
    Author: Antonaroli, Valentina; Deguara, Warren; Muscat, Aleandra
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of Malta, [Valletta]

    This paper compares the main findings from the fourth wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Malta with those for the euro area. This comparative report finds that in 2020 the median Maltese household held more real and... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 684
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    This paper compares the main findings from the fourth wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Malta with those for the euro area. This comparative report finds that in 2020 the median Maltese household held more real and financial assets than households in the euro area. The median value of total liabilities of indebted Maltese households also stood higher than in the euro area. Despite higher total liabilities, the debt-toasset ratio indicates that Maltese households have a significantly higher amount of assets to back their debt. Largely reflecting the higher prevalence of homeownership in Malta, the median net wealth in Malta was estimated to be significantly higher than in the euro area. At the same time, gross income of Maltese households stood notably lower when compared to the euro area. Results also show that Maltese households spend more on food but considerably less on utilities compared to euro area counterparts. Against different macroeconomic and socio-demographic backgrounds, the survey results highlight heterogeneous developments between Malta and the euro area as a whole. Furthermore, euro area averages mask notable cross-country differences.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/298547
    Series: Working papers / Central Bank of Malta ; WP/2023, 05
    Subjects: Household finance; consumption; wealth; survey data; comparative studies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Monetary policy shocks and firms' bank loan expectations
    Author: Ferrando, Annalisa; Grazzini, Caterina Forti
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We provide new evidence on how ECB's monetary policy decisions affect firms' bank loan expectations in the euro area. We use firm-level data derived from the ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009 to 2022 and identify... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 534
    Inter-library loan:
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    We provide new evidence on how ECB's monetary policy decisions affect firms' bank loan expectations in the euro area. We use firm-level data derived from the ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009 to 2022 and identify the impact of monetary policy by comparing the responses of firms interviewed shortly before and after monetary policy shocks. Our results are as follows. First, we find that firms' bank loan expectations react to monetary policy, with a contractionary shock leading to a downward revision of expectations. Second, we show that firms' response depends on the size and the sign of the shock, with only large and contractionary shocks having a significant negative effect on expectations. Third, we observe that the different components of central bank communication (i.e. the pure monetary policy shock and the central bank information shock) have different impacts on firms' beliefs. Fourth, we find that conventional and unconventional QE shocks have opposite effects on expectations, with the impact of QE policies mainly being driven by the central bank information component of the related announcements. Finally, we document that the response to monetary policy differs along firms' structural characteristics.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289961233
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278670
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2838
    Subjects: Monetary policy; firms' expectations; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen