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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 28.

  1. Wealth, assets and life satisfaction: a metadata instrumental-variable approach
    Author: Brokešová, Zuzana; Cupák, Andrej; Lepinteur, Anthony; Rizov, Marian
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava

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    Series: NSB Working paper / National Bank of Slovakia ; 2021,4
    Subjects: life satisfaction; wealth; real assets; housing; endogeneity,instrumental variable; survey data; paradata; Slovakia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  2. Reconciling reports: modelling employment earnings and measurement errors using linked survey and administrative data
    Author: Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and... more

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    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and Ypma (Journal of Labor Economics, 2007). Our models incorporate mean-reverting measurement error in administrative data in addition to linkage mismatch and mean-reverting survey measurement error and 'reference period' error, while also allowing error distributions to vary across individuals. Annualised survey earnings underestimate true annual earnings on average. Mean-reversion in survey measurement errors is absent. Both earnings sources underestimate true earnings inequality. The survey earning measure is more reliable than the administrative data earnings measure, but hybrid earnings predictors based on both sources are distinctly more reliable than either source-specific measure. The models with heterogeneous measurement error distributions indicate how data quality may be improved. For example, for survey quality, our results highlight how respondents showing payslips to interviewers have smaller survey error variances. For administrative data, our results suggest that greater error variances are associated with non-standard jobs, private sector jobs, and employers without good payroll systems.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14405
    Subjects: measurement error; earnings; survey data; administrative data; finite mixture models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Attitudes towards globalization barriers and implications for voting
    evidence from Sweden
    Author: Karakas, Leyla D.; Kim, Nam Seok; Mitra, Devashish
    Published: August 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using six waves of the Swedish National Election Studies (SNES) survey data, we investigate the determinants of attitudes towards globalization barriers (trade and immigration) and how important these attitudes are in how people vote. In line with... more

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    Using six waves of the Swedish National Election Studies (SNES) survey data, we investigate the determinants of attitudes towards globalization barriers (trade and immigration) and how important these attitudes are in how people vote. In line with the existing results in the literature, we find that more educated and richer voters support freer trade and more immigration. We also find that conservative voters in Sweden are more likely to prefer freer trade but higher immigration barriers. Once various economic and demographic determinants of globalization barrier preferences along with voters’ ideologies on a liberal-conservative spectrum are controlled for in the analysis of voting behavior, trade barrier preferences lose their statistical significance while attitudes towards immigration barriers remain significant. This suggests that immigration attitudes affect voting behavior through channels involving identity-driven factors that are different from the channels through which more traditional electoral issues, such as trade barriers, work. Focusing on the anti-globalization Swedish Democrats, we confirm that voters with a greater preference for barriers to immigration were more likely to switch their votes to this party from the 2014 to the 2018 election.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9236 (2021)
    Subjects: globalization; trade; immigration; elections; voting; survey data; Sweden
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten)
  4. The rise of digital watchers
    Author: Ebner, Till; Nellen, Thomas; Tenhofen, Jörn
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Swiss National Bank, Zurich

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    Series: SNB working papers ; 2021, 1
    Subjects: payment behavior; control motive; pocket watcher; digital watcher; survey data; central bank digital currency
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The impact of aggregate uncertainty on firm-level uncertainty
    Author: Easaw, Joshy Z.; Grimme, Christian
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and... more

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    We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of aggregate uncertainty. However, the size of the impact is heterogeneous and depends on certain firm characteristics and the state of the business cycle. For example, the widely used economic policy uncertainty index matters to all firms’ uncertainty only in recessionary periods, while it is relevant over the entire business cycle only to large firms' uncertainty.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 8934 (2021)
    Subjects: firm-level uncertainty; aggregate uncertainty; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Labour shortages and wage growth
    Author: Frohm, Erik
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007... more

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    Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007 through the lens of a novel indicator, relative labour shortages (RLS), based on data from a large representative business survey in Sweden. Four main results emerge from the analysis: (1), the time-series average of RLS suggested much weaker labour market conditions during the 2013−2019 recovery from the Great Recession and during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 than qualitative surveys or the vacancy-unemployment ratio. (2), the reason is that RLS contains a time-varying intensive margin of labour shortages not recorded in most surveys, which has been trending downwards since the Great Recession. (3), fixed-effects regressions with several aggregate-, sector, region and establishment-level controls confirm that RLS is strongly and positively correlated with annual wage growth at the establishmentlevel. (4), sector-level wage Phillips curves show that the subdued level of RLS can help explain the sluggish wage growth in Sweden since the Great Recession.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289947626
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    hdl: 10419/237715
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2576 (July 2021)
    Subjects: Wage inflation; labour markets; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Estimating coherency between survey data and incentivized experimental data
    Author: Belzil, Christian; Pernaudet, Julie; Poinas, François
    Published: July 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Imagine the situation in which an econometrician can infer the distribution of welfare gains induced by the provision of higher education financial aid using survey data obtained from a set of individuals, and can estimate the same distribution using... more

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    Imagine the situation in which an econometrician can infer the distribution of welfare gains induced by the provision of higher education financial aid using survey data obtained from a set of individuals, and can estimate the same distribution using a highly incentivized field experiment in which the same set of individuals participated. In the experimental setting relying on incentivized choices, making the wrong decision can be costly. In the survey, the stakes are null and reporting false intentions and expectations is costless. In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which the decomposition of the two welfare gain distributions into latent factors are coherent. We find that individuals often put a much different weight to a specific set of determinants in the experiment and in the survey and that the valuations of financial aid are rank incoherent. About 66% of Biased Incoherency (defined as the tendency to have a higher valuation rank in the experiment than in the survey) is explained by individual heterogeneity in subjective benefits, costs and other factors and about half of these factors affect the welfare gains of financial aid in the survey and in the experiment in opposite directions. Ex-ante policy evaluation of a potential expansion of the Canadian higher education financial aid system may therefore depend heavily on whether or not the data have been obtained in an "incentivized" context.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245645
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14594
    Subjects: field experiment; survey data; coherency; incentives
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Anchored inflation expectations
    Author: Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; Preston, Bruce
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  [Departamento de Economia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro], [Rio de Janeiro, RJ]

    We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in in ation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of in ation and in ation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run in ation... more

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    We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in in ation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of in ation and in ation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run in ation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run in ation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of in ation. The model, estimated using only in ation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term in ation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

     
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    Edition: April 5, 2021
    Series: Texto para discussão / PUC Rio, Departamento de Economia ; no. 689
    Subjects: Anchored expectations; ination expectations; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Subjective uncertainty, expectations, and firm behavior
    Author: Lautenbacher, Stefan
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and... more

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    Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship. However, the link is much weaker in bad times, since uncertainty is then persistently high - even when expectations are favorable. I continue by investigating the relative importance of uncertainty and expectations for corporate decisions. Exploiting information on firms' investment and labor reactions to the COVID-19 crisis, I do not find evidence that uncertainty induced "wait and see" behavior. However, a deterioration in managers' expectations and in their assessment of their firms' business situation predicts investment deferral and a reduction in employment.

     
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    hdl: 10419/233024
    Series: Ifo working papers ; 349 (2021)
    Subjects: Subjective uncertainty; expectations; firms; survey data; corporatedecisions; business cycles
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. All forecasters are not the same
    time-varying predictive ability across forecast environments
    Author: Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph S.
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 21, 06 (February 2021)
    Subjects: professional forecasters; survey data; forecast accuracy; point forecasts; density forecasts; persistent heterogeneity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Estimating coherency between survey data and incentivized experimental data
    Author: Belzil, Christian; Pernaudet, Julie; Poinas, François
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  CIRANO, [Montréal]

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    Series: Cahier scientifique / CIRANO ; 2021s, 30
    Subjects: field experiment; survey data; coherency; incentives
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Are households indifferent to monetary policy announcements?
    Author: De Fiore, Fiorella; Lombardi, Marco; Schuffels, Johannes
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Series: BIS working papers ; no 956 (August 2021)
    Subjects: households; monetary policy; central bank communication; inflation expectations; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Author: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Published: November 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with... more

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    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250514
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14853
    Subjects: inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Does democracy make taller men?
    cross-country European evidence
    Author: Batinti, Alberto; Costa-Font, Joan
    Published: December 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study whether a democracy improves a measure of individual wellbeing; human heights. Drawing on individual-level datasets, we test the hypothesis using a battery of eight different measures of democracy and derived averages, and include models... more

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    We study whether a democracy improves a measure of individual wellbeing; human heights. Drawing on individual-level datasets, we test the hypothesis using a battery of eight different measures of democracy and derived averages, and include models accounting for several confounders, regional and cohort fixed effects. We document that democracy - or its quality during early childhood - shows a strong and positive conditional correlation with male, but not female, adult stature. Our preferred estimates suggest that being born in a democracy increases average male stature from a minimum of 1.33 to a maximum of 2.4 cm. Together with the positive association with male stature and the increase in gender dimorphism, we also show an additional contribution when democracy increases furtherly during adolescent years, and when we adopt measures of existing democratic capital before birth and at the end of height plasticity in early adulthood. We also find that democracy is associated with a reduction in inequality of heights distribution. We find period-heterogeneity in our results, with early democratizations being more effective on heights than later ones. Results are robust to the inclusion/exclusion of countries exposed to communism.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249027
    Edition: This version: January 2022
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9482 (2021)
    Subjects: democracy; wellbeing; human heights; waves of democratisation; communism; Europe; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Economic sentiment
    disentangling private information from public knowledge
    Author: Heinisch, Katja; Lindner, Axel
    Published: [17. Dezember 2021]
    Publisher:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not... more

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    This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions' consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.

     
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    Series: IWH discussion papers ; 2021, no. 15 (December 2021)
    Subjects: consumer confidence; private information; public information; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 15 Seiten, 0,81 MB), Diagramme
  16. A temporary vat cut as unconventional fiscal policy
    Author: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Published: 02 November 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP16690
    Subjects: unconventional fiscal policy; value added tax; survey data; Expectations; Consumption; household data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Author: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Published: 16 November 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP16729
    Subjects: Inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Firms' inflation expectations and pricing strategies during Covid-19
    Author: Bottone, Marco; Conflitti, Cristina; Riggi, Marianna; Tagliabracci, Alex
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 619 (June 2021)
    Subjects: Covid-19; firms’ inflation expectations; firms’ pricing strategies; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Inflation expectations and the ECB's perceived inflation objective
    novel evidence from firm-level data
    Author: Bottone, Marco; Tagliabracci, Alex; Zevi, Giordano
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 621 (June 2021)
    Subjects: ECB’s inflation aim; firms’ inflation expectations; monetary policy; informationtreatments; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment
    Author: Bulligan, Guido; Corsello, Francesco; Neri, Stefano; Tagliabracci, Alex
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 624 (June 2021)
    Subjects: survey data; panel data; professional forecasters; inflation expectations; monetarypolicy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Top-income adjustments and official statistics on income distribution: the case of the UK
    Author: Jenkins, Stephen
    Published: December 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    UK official statistics on income distribution have incorporated top-income adjustments to household survey data since 1992. This article reviews the work undertaken by the Department for Work and Pensions and the Office for National Statistics, and... more

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    UK official statistics on income distribution have incorporated top-income adjustments to household survey data since 1992. This article reviews the work undertaken by the Department for Work and Pensions and the Office for National Statistics, and the academic research that influenced them, and reflects on the lessons to learn from the UK experience.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/250612
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14951
    Subjects: inequality; income inequality; top incomes; tax return data; survey data; data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Perception of innovation in Spain
    Author: Gijón, Covadonga; Lozano, Irene Albarrán; Molina, José Manuel
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  International Telecommunications Society, Online

    The present paper analyses the perception of innovation of individuals in Spain and the factors associated with it. Data from 2015 and 2018 about individuals from the Spanish surveys are used. The data include several measures of innovation... more

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    The present paper analyses the perception of innovation of individuals in Spain and the factors associated with it. Data from 2015 and 2018 about individuals from the Spanish surveys are used. The data include several measures of innovation perception, gender, age, educational level, and other socioeconomic and technical variables. The aim of this paper is to determine the perception of innovation, in its different aspects, of Spanish people. To this end, several ordered logit models have been developed to determine how much the socio-demographic characteristics and other aspects of innovation affect the perception of innovation. Results indicate that people have a better perception of innovation if they are training in innovation or have good Information and Communication Technology skills. Among the main results, there is evidence of a gender gap in the perception of innovation, as well as differences according to digital skills.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/238024
    Series: Digital societies and industrial transformations : policies, markets, and technologies in a post-Covid world : 23rd biennial conference
    Subjects: perception; innovation; survey data; ordered logit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The evolution of the green finance agenda - institutional anchoring and a survey-based assessment for Austria
    Author: Kletzan-Slamanig, Daniela; Köppl, Angela
    Published: December 2021
    Publisher:  Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Wien

    A comprehensive restructuring of economies and a massive increase of investments in climate-friendly technologies, infrastructures, and R&D is needed for reaching the Paris targets. The EU has launched a process for greening the financial sector... more

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    A comprehensive restructuring of economies and a massive increase of investments in climate-friendly technologies, infrastructures, and R&D is needed for reaching the Paris targets. The EU has launched a process for greening the financial sector emphasising the need for new instruments and financial market regulation for aligning investments to sustainability. This chapter summarises research on two topics: firstly, what are the main political strategies, especially at EU level, to support green finance, and secondly, which are the key supporting factors, barriers and actors for an upscaling of green investments? To assess the relevance of green finance in the financial market and climate policy (with focus on Austria) an expert survey was conducted. It delivers insights on promising policies and strategies for fostering the growth of green finance. Conclusions can be drawn on instruments (like carbon pricing) that should be integrated in post-COVID-19 stimulus packages to ensure a Paris-aligned recovery.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/249260
    Series: WIFO working papers ; 640 (2021)
    Subjects: Green finance; EU sustainable finance strategy; survey data; low-carbon transition; green recovery
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Household inflation expectations and consumer spending
    evidence from panel data
    Author: Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali
    Published: August 2021
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2110
    Subjects: Inflation expectations; survey data; durable and nondurable goods consumption
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 108 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Uncertainty and change
    survey evidence of firms' subjective beliefs
    Author: Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; Schneider, Martin
    Published: November 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has... more

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    This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if the experience was negative. At the quarterly frequency, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with past growth. In the cross section of firms, however, subjective uncertainty differs from conditional volatility: planning in successful firms—either large or fast-growing—reflects lower subjective uncertainty than in unsuccessful firms even when the size of the shocks is the same.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248939
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9394 (2021)
    Subjects: expectation formation; firms; measurement; subjective uncertainty; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen