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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 194.

  1. The functions of wealth
    renters, owners and capitalists across Europe and the United States
    Author: Fessler, Pirmin; Schürz, Martin
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/264815
    Series: Working paper / OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank ; 223
    Subjects: wealth; inequality; households; survey data; class
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Firms' expectations of new orders, employment, costs and prices
    evidence from micro data
    Author: Boneva, Lena; Cloyne, James; Weale, Martin; Wieladek, Tomasz
    Published: 14 February 2018
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Array ; DP 12722
    Subjects: Preismanagement; Inflationserwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Lohnniveau; Stückkosten; Phillips-Kurve; Neoklassische Synthese; Pricing-setting; survey data; inflation expectations; New Keynesian Phillips Curve
    Scope: 30 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  3. In-depth analysis of tax reforms using the EUROMOD microsimulation model
    Author: Picos, Fidel; Schmitz, Marie-Luise
    Published: November 2016
    Publisher:  European Commission, Sevilla, Spain

    In the aftermath of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, the need for a better understanding of the fiscal and equity implications of national tax policy reforms is greater than ever. National fiscal policies have a significant share in paving... more

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    In the aftermath of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, the need for a better understanding of the fiscal and equity implications of national tax policy reforms is greater than ever. National fiscal policies have a significant share in paving the way for economic recovery, fiscal consolidation and reducing looming inequality problems. The present work sets out a consistent framework for the in-depth country analyses of tax reforms using EUROMOD performed by the European Commission services in the context of the European Semester. Three examples of policy analysis are presented with the focus being on the provision of correct inferences alongside the typically analysed estimates and indicators.

     
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    Language: English
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/202243
    Series: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2016, 6
    Subjects: Fiscal policy analysis; European Semester; survey data; microsimulation; variance estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten)
  4. Insatiable wealth preference
    evidence from Japanese household survey
    Author: Akesaka, Mika; Mikami, Ryo; Ono, Yoshiyasu
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

    This study theoretically considers household behavior with wealth preference and empirically investigates the validity of insatiable wealth preference using a nationally representative survey. With wealth preference, the marginal rate of substitution... more

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    This study theoretically considers household behavior with wealth preference and empirically investigates the validity of insatiable wealth preference using a nationally representative survey. With wealth preference, the marginal rate of substitution of asset holdings for consumption depends on the nominal interest rates of assets at each point in time. We focus on this property and find that the marginal utility of holding financial assets remains strictly positive as asset holdings increase and has a strictly positive lower bound, implying the insatiability of wealth preference. This property plays a crucial role in creating secular demand stagnation and expanding asset price bubbles.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/302235
    Edition: Revised May 23, 2024
    Series: Discussion paper / The Institute of Social and Economic Research ; no. 1241
    Subjects: wealth preference; survey data; secular stagnation; bubbles
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. How good am I?
    effects and mechanisms behind salient rank
    Author: Megalokonomou, Rigissa; Zhang, Yi
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  [Monash University, Monash Business School, Department of Economics], [Clayton]

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    Series: Discussion paper / Monash University, Department of Economics ; no. 2023, 07
    Subjects: achievement rank; salience; random classroom assignment; mechanisms; survey data; middle schools; mediation analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Poland's agriculture
    serious competitor or Europe's poorhouse? ; survey results on farm performance in selected Polish voivodships and a comparison with German farms
    Author: Petrick, Martin
    Published: 2001
    Publisher:  IAMO, Halle (Saale)

    The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of farm-level data collected in a survey of 464 Polish farms in 2000. Performance indicators of farms in three Polish voivodships are compared with farm accountancy data from two German Länder. The... more

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    The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of farm-level data collected in a survey of 464 Polish farms in 2000. Performance indicators of farms in three Polish voivodships are compared with farm accountancy data from two German Länder. The results show that Polish farms were much less profitable than their German counterparts. The gap in income levels is much higher between persons employed in the agricultural sector than between average working persons in the two countries. Living standards within the Polish farm sector decline from the north-west to the south-east. The analysis suggests that the lower profitability of farms is a consequence of pronounced structural deficiencies due to a quite unfavourable workforce-land ratio on Polish farms and hardly a result of lower product prices. Serious technical and economic inefficiencies in the production process become visible in the data. There is a generally conservative attitude among farmers that prefers the continuation of farming over leaving the sector. Nevertheless, income from agriculture is to a substantial extent complemented by off-farm employment in the southern regions. Formal education of farm managers and access to finance appeared not to be crucial for their economic success in the past, although especially the most profitable farms in the north did not obtain as much credit as desired. Our overall conclusion is that Polish farms currently are in the midst of a regional, economic, and social differentiation process fuelled by huge imbalances in terms of income levels between rural and urban population groups. This process is however seriously slowed down or even halted by a number of effective institutional barriers, particularly with regard to rural labour markets. These barriers should be properly addressed by a formulation of future policies in order to avoid further social frictions in the course of the Polish EU accession. Der Beitrag stellt die Ergebnisse einer Analyse von einzelbetrieblichen Kennzahlen vor, die im Rahmen einer Befragung von 464 polnischen Landwirten im Jahre 2000 erhoben wurden. Die Analyse stützt sich auf den Vergleich von landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben in drei polnischen Woiwodschaften und zwei deutschen Bundesländern. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die polnischen Betriebe deutlich geringere Gewinne erzielen als ihre deutschen Vergleichspartner. Der Unterschied im Einkommensniveau zwischen Beschäftigten in der Landwirtschaft ist wesentlich höher als der zwischen durchschnittlichen Arbeitnehmern in beiden Ländern. Das Einkommensniveau innerhalb des polnischen Agrarsektors sinkt vom Nordwesten zum Südosten des Landes. Die Analyse legt nahe, dass die geringere Rentabilität der Betriebe in Polen in erster Linie auf Strukturdefizite als Konsequenz eines ungünstigen Verhältnisses zwischen Arbeitskraftbesatz und Nutzfläche zurückgeht und kein Resultat unterschiedlicher Produktpreisniveaus ist. Die Daten weisen weiterhin auf deutliche technische und wirtschaftliche Ineffizienzen im Produktionsprozess hin. Polnische Landwirte zeigen eine allgemein konservative Haltung, sie ziehen eine Fortsetzung der Tätigkeit als Landwirt einer außerlandwirtschaftlichen Beschäftigung vor. Dennoch werden vor allem in den südlichen Regionen landwirtschaftliche Einkommen weithin durch nichtlandwirtschaftliche Einkommensquellen ergänzt. Die formale Ausbildung der Landwirte sowie Zugang zu Krediten erwiesen sich in der Vergangenheit als überwiegend nicht entscheidend für den wirtschaftlichen Erfolg, obwohl besonders die rentabelsten Betriebe im Norden des Landes nicht in der Lage waren, Kredite im gewünschten Umfang zu erhalten. Wir ziehen als allgemeine Schlussfolgerung, dass sich die polnischen Betriebe inmitten eines regionalen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Ausdifferenzierungsprozesses befinden, der in erster Linie durch die großen Unterschiede im Einkommensniveau zwischen ländlichen und städtischen Bevölkerungsgruppen verursacht wird. Allerdings wird dieser Prozess durch effektive institutionelle Hindernisse, besonders im Hinblick auf den ländlichen Arbeitsmarkt, stark verlangsamt oder sogar zum Stehen gebracht. Diesen Hindernissen sollte durch künftige Politikmaßnahmen angemessen begegnet werden, um weitere soziale Verwerfungen im Laufe des polnischen EU Beitritts zu vermeiden.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/28588
    Series: Discussion paper / Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe ; 37
    Subjects: Landwirtschaft; Betriebsvergleich; Rentabilität; Wirtschaftlichkeit; Internationaler Wettbewerb; Polen; Deutschland; agriculture; farm performance; survey data; Poland; Germany; Landwirtschaft; einzelbetriebliche Kennzahlen; Befragungsdaten; Polen; Deutschland
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 41 S., 0,61 MB), graph. Darst., Kt.
  7. Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the new Keynesian Phillips curve
    Author: Rondina, Francesca
    Published: January 2018
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa

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    Series: Working paper / Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ottawa ; 1804E
    Subjects: Phillips curve; expectations; survey data; Bayesian estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates?
    evidence from survey data
    Author: Prat, Georges; Uctum, Remzi
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense, Nanterre

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    Series: Working paper / EconomiX ; 2016, 19
    Subjects: expectation formation; interest rates; dynamic heterogeneity; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Exploring differences in financial literacy across countries
    the role of individual characteristics and institutions
    Author: Cupák, Andrej; Fessler, Pirmin; Silgoner, Maria Antoinette; Ulbrich, Elisabeth
    Published: February 2018
    Publisher:  OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria

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    hdl: 10419/264812
    Series: Working paper / OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank ; 220
    Subjects: financial literacy gaps; inequality; decomposition analysis; counterfactual methods; personal finance; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Firm expectations and economic activity
    Author: Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J.
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future.... more

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    We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/198983
    Series: Array ; no. 7623 (April 2019)
    Subjects: expectations; firms; survey data; propensity score matching; business cycle; news; noise; incorrect optimism
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Benefit underreporting in survey data and its consequences for measuring non-take-up
    new evidence from linked administrative and survey data
    Author: Bruckmeier, Kerstin; Riphahn, Regina T.; Wiemers, Jürgen
    Published: 2 April 2019
    Publisher:  IAB, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg

    The international literature studies non-take-up behavior of eligible populations to evaluate the effectiveness of government programs. A major challenge in this literature is the measurement error regarding benefit take-up. Measurement error is... more

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    The international literature studies non-take-up behavior of eligible populations to evaluate the effectiveness of government programs. A major challenge in this literature is the measurement error regarding benefit take-up. Measurement error is typically addressed by structural assumptions in the modeling framework. In our data, we observe both actual welfare receipt and respondents' survey information on their take-up. This allows us to observe the measurement errors that other researchers must estimate. We describe survey misreporting and investigate how it biases the estimates of the magnitude and patterns of benefit take-up among eligible households. Our findings suggest that the extent of measurement error can be substantial. It varies with the characteristics of the misreporting population and is associated with the drivers of underreporting. This indicates that survey-based analyses of take-up behavior are likely subject to severe biases. Eine Vielzahl von Studien untersucht die Nicht-Inanspruchnahme von Sozialleistungen, um die Wirksamkeit staatlicher Programme zu bewerten. Eine große Herausforderung in dieser Literatur besteht darin, dass die Messung der Inanspruchnahme in den verwendeten Daten fehlerbehaftet ist. Der Messfehler wird typischerweise durch strukturelle Annahmen in der statistischen Modellierung adressiert. In unseren Daten beobachten wir hingegen sowohl den tatsächlichen Leistungsbezug als auch die Angaben der Befragten zu ihrem Leistungsbezug. So können wir die Messfehler, die üblicherweise geschätzt werden müssen, direkt beobachten. Wir berichten das Ausmaß von falschen Angaben bezüglich des Leistungsbezugs in den von uns verwendeten Surveydaten und untersuchen, wie diese falschen Angaben Schätzungen zu den Determinanten der Inanspruchnahme leistungsberechtigter Haushalte verzerren. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Ausmaß der Messfehler erheblich sein kann, so dass survey-basierte Analysen des Inanspruchnahmeverhaltens wahrscheinlich mit beträchtlichen Verzerrungen behaftet sind.

     
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    hdl: 10419/204853
    Series: IAB-discussion paper ; 2019, 6
    Subjects: Administrative data; data linkage; misreporting; survey data; take-up; welfare
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Economic sentiment in Europe
    disentangling private information from public knowledge
    Author: Heinisch, Katja; Lindner, Axel
    Published: February 2019
    Publisher:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Leipzig]

    This paper addresses a general problem with surveys asking agents for their assessment of the state of the economy: answers are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only information that is not already publicly known has... more

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    This paper addresses a general problem with surveys asking agents for their assessment of the state of the economy: answers are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known (that is common knowledge) for surveys that are structured like that for the European Commission's consumer sentiment indicator. We show that, empirically, this procedure works quite well for some economies, in particular for Germany.

     
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    hdl: 10419/203501
    Series: Array ; Array
    Subjects: private information; public information; consumer confidence; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. What matters in households' inflation expectations?
    Author: Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric
    Published: 18 June 2020
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP14905
    Subjects: Inflation expectations; Euler equation; survey data; imperfect information; adjustment costs; stabilization policies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 103 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Trust in the time of corona
    Author: Brück, Tilman; Ferguson, Neil T. N.; Justino, Patricia; Stojetz, Wolfgang
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    The global spread of COVID-19 is one of the largest threats to people and governments since the Second World War. The on-going pandemic and its countermeasures have led to varying physical, psychological, and emotional experiences, shaping not just... more

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    The global spread of COVID-19 is one of the largest threats to people and governments since the Second World War. The on-going pandemic and its countermeasures have led to varying physical, psychological, and emotional experiences, shaping not just public health and the economy but also societies. We focus on one pillar of society-trust-and explore how trust correlates with the individual experiences of the pandemic. The analysis is based on a new global survey-'Life with Corona'-and uses simple correlational statistics. We show that those who have had contact with sick people and those that are unemployed exhibit lower trust in people, institutions, and in general. By contrast, no such differences exist for those who have personally experienced symptoms of the disease. These associations vary across contexts and are not driven by concerns about personal health or the health of loved ones, but rather by increased levels of worry and stress. Our findings suggest that the effects of the pandemic go well beyond immediate health concerns, leading to important normative changes that are likely to shape how societies will emerge from the pandemic.

     
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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789292568399
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    hdl: 10419/229306
    Series: WIDER working paper ; 2020, 82
    Subjects: COVID-19; coronavirus; pandemic; survey data; trust; well-being
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Missing top incomes and tax-benefit microsimulation: evidence from correcting household survey data using tax records data
    Author: Ledić, Marko; Rubil, Ivica; Urban, Ivica
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

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    hdl: 11159/8511
    Series: EIZ working papers ; EIZ-WP-22, 01
    Subjects: top incomes; survey data; tax records; tax-benefit microsimulation; EUROMOD; EU-SILC
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Would households understand average inflation targeting?
    Author: Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
    Published: 09 March 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP16786
    Subjects: Monetary policy strategy; Household Inflation Expectations; randomized control trial; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Missing top incomes and tax-benefit microsimulation: evidence from correcting household survey data using tax records data
    Author: Ledić, Marko; Rubil, Ivica; Urban, Ivica
    Published: 2022 March
    Publisher:  ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, [Verona]

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    Series: Working paper series / ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality ; 609 (2022)
    Subjects: top incomes; survey data; tax records; tax-benefit microsimulation; EUROMOD; EU-SILC
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in Covid times: evidence from UK survey data
    Author: Albuquerque, Bruno; Green, Georgina
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 965
    Subjects: Covid-19; marginal propensity to consume; survey data; household behaviour; expectations; financial concerns; fiscal policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. P-hacking, data type and data-sharing policy
    Author: Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Neisser, Carina
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between p-hacking and data-sharing policies for published articles. We collect 38,876 test statistics from 1,106 articles published in leading economic journals between 2002-2020. While a data-sharing policy... more

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    In this paper, we examine the relationship between p-hacking and data-sharing policies for published articles. We collect 38,876 test statistics from 1,106 articles published in leading economic journals between 2002-2020. While a data-sharing policy increases the provision of research data to the community, we find a well-estimated null effect that requiring authors to share their data at the time of publication does not alter the presence of p-hacking. Similarly, articles that use hard-to-access administrative data or third-party surveys, as compared to those that use easier-to-access (e.g., own-collected) data are not different in their p-hacking extent. Voluntary provision of data by authors on their homepages offers no evidence of reduced p-hacking.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/265807
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15586
    Subjects: p-hacking; publication bias; data and code availability; data sharing policy; administrative data; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 86 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Work from home arrangements and organizational performance in Italian SMEs
    evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic
    Author: Abrardi, Laura; Porta, Flavio; Grinza, Elena; Manello, Alessandro
    Published: July, 2022
    Publisher:  Laboratorio R. Revelli, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Torino, Italy

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    Series: Working paper / Labor, Laboratorio Riccardo Revelli ; no. 181
    Subjects: Work from home (WFH); teleworking; agile working; smart working; organizational performance; labor productivity; management by objectives (MBO); COVID-19; small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  21. Wealth, assets and life satisfaction: a metadata instrumental-variable approach
    Author: Brokešová, Zuzana; Cupák, Andrej; Lepinteur, Anthony; Rizov, Marian
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava

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    Series: NSB Working paper / National Bank of Slovakia ; 2021,4
    Subjects: life satisfaction; wealth; real assets; housing; endogeneity,instrumental variable; survey data; paradata; Slovakia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  22. Effects of minimum wage increases on teenage employment: survey versus administrative data
    Author: Westhuizen, de Wet van der
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  [Auckland University of Technology], [Auckland, New Zealand]

    This paper empirically examines the impact of the 2001 New Zealand minimum wage reform on the employment of 16-17 and 18-19-year-olds using administrative data from Statistics New Zealand's Integrated Data Infrastructure. This reform increased the... more

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    This paper empirically examines the impact of the 2001 New Zealand minimum wage reform on the employment of 16-17 and 18-19-year-olds using administrative data from Statistics New Zealand's Integrated Data Infrastructure. This reform increased the real minimum wage of 18-19-yearolds by 68%, and 16-17-year-olds by 35% in 2001 and 2002. The impact of the minimum wage reform on employment is estimated in two phases. First, existing New Zealand empirical evidence is reproduced using survey data from the Household Labour Force Survey to test and adopt an identification method which has examined the impact of this reform and is established in the international literature. Second, using this identification method in combination with administrative data, preliminary estimates highlight that the 2001 minimum wage reform had small and positive effects on the employment of teenagers. However, findings must be interpreted with caution due to concerns with a key identification assumption.

     
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    Other identifier:
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    Series: Economics working paper series / Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, AUT ; 2022, 03
    Subjects: minimum wage; employment; teenage employment; administrative data; survey data; difference-in-differences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Forward guidance and expectation formation
    a narrative approach
    Author: Sutherland, Christopher S.
    Published: June 2022
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    Series: BIS working papers ; no 1024
    Subjects: forward guidance; central bank communication; information effects; expectations; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Working in the shadow
    survey techniques for measuring and explaining undeclared work
    Author: Burgstaller, Lilith; Feld, Lars P.; Pfeil, Katharina
    Published: June 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Little is known about the size and determinants of undeclared work. While approaches to measure the shadow economy have been extensively discussed, conventional surveys dominate research on undeclared work. We review and extend this literature by... more

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    Little is known about the size and determinants of undeclared work. While approaches to measure the shadow economy have been extensively discussed, conventional surveys dominate research on undeclared work. We review and extend this literature by first referring to the most recent survey data on undeclared work in Germany and, second, by discussing four experimental survey techniques as well as their few applications to questions of undeclared work. We argue that the randomized response technique and list experiments would validate and improve prevalence estimates of undeclared work, whereas careful design of information provision experiments and discrete choice experiments would fill the gap on determinants that causally affect decisions to supply and demand undeclared work.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263740
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9810 (2022)
    Subjects: undeclared work; experimental survey; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  25. Do financial market experts know their theory?
    new evidence from survey data
    Author: Brückbauer, Frank
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Using a unique survey dataset, I study how financial market experts form their stock market expectations. I document a strong disagreement among experts about how important macroeconomic and financial variables are related to stock returns. The... more

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    Using a unique survey dataset, I study how financial market experts form their stock market expectations. I document a strong disagreement among experts about how important macroeconomic and financial variables are related to stock returns. The results of an analysis of the relationships between my main survey measure of expected returns and measures of economic conditions are largely consistent with the view that expected returns are counter-cyclical. In particular, I find a positive relationship between expected returns and the dividend–price ratio, which is at odds with the findings of previous papers studying survey measures of expected returns. Finally, I find that an aggregated measure of the financial market experts’ stock return forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a simple average of historical stock returns.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251922
    Edition: This draft: April 2022
    Series: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 20, 092 (04/2022)
    Subjects: stock market expectations; survey data; macro-finance; stock return predictability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen