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  1. Commodity price shocks and the business cycle
    structural evidence for the US
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  WWZ, Basel

    This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a... more

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 523 (2011,5)
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic fluctuations, second only to investment-specific technology shocks. In particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology shocks and monetary policy shocks seem less relevant at business cycle frequencies. The impulse response dynamics provide support for medium-scale DSGE models, but not for strong price rigidities.

     

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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/123415
    Edition: This version: March 28, 2011
    Series: WWZ Discussion Paper ; 11,05
    Subjects: Rohstoffpreis; Schock; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; VAR-Modell; Schätzung; USA; business cycles; commodity price shocks; structural VAR
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 41 S.), graph. Darst.