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Displaying results 1 to 3 of 3.

  1. What did it mean for Lucas to set up "useful" analogue systems?
    Author: Galbács, Peter
    Published: April 24, 2020
    Publisher:  Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University, [Durham, NC]

    This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term 'analogue systems' and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model can be regarded as an analogue system provided it has remarkable predictive success. The term is thus... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 554
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    This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term 'analogue systems' and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model can be regarded as an analogue system provided it has remarkable predictive success. The term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful, Lucas supposed models to meet further requirements. These prerequisites are introduced in two steps in the paper. First, some properties of 'useless' Keynesian macroeconometric models come to the fore as contrasting cases. Second, it is argued that Lucas suggested two assumptions as the keys to usefulness. One is money as a causal instrument, and the other is the choice-theoretic framework to describe the causal mechanisms underlying large-scale fluctuations. It is also argued that Lucas advocated these presumptions for he conceived them to be true. Extensive quotations from Lucas's unpublished materials underpin the claims.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/216757
    Series: CHOPE working paper ; no. 2020, 06 (April 2020)
    Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University Working Paper Series, 2020
    Subjects: Robert E. Lucas; microfoundations; business cycle theory; rational expectations; island models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  2. Indeterminacy and imperfect information
    Author: Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian; Mertens, Elmar
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less... more

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 12
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    We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less informed agents observe only a strict subset of the full information set. All types of agents form expectations rationally, but agents with limited information need to solve a dynamic signal extraction problem to gather information about the variables they do not observe. In this environment, we identify a new channel that leads to equilibrium indeterminacy: Optimal information processing of the less informed agent introduces stable dynamics into the equation system that lead to self-fulling expectations. For parameter values that imply a unique equilibrium under full information, the limited information rational expectations equilibrium is indeterminate. We illustrate our framework with a monetary policy problem where an imperfectly informed central bank follows an interest rate rule.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957296610
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213861
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2020, 01
    Subjects: Limited information; rational expectations; signal extraction; belief shocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Monetary policy and sentiment-driven fluctuations
    Author: Chan, Jenny
    Published: July 3, 2020
    Publisher:  CFM, Centre for Macroeconomics, London

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 637
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    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CFM discussion paper series ; CFM-DP 2020, 20
    Subjects: New-Keynesian; business cycles; sunspots; animal spirits; dispersed information; rational expectations; optimal monetary policy; Taylor principle; indeterminacy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 101 Seiten), Illustrationen