Skip to main navigation Skip to main content
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Last searches

Results for *

Displaying results 1 to 4 of 4.

  1. Has fiscal rule changed the fiscal marksmanship of union government?
    anatomy of budgetary forecast errors in India
    Author: Chakraborty, Lekha; Sinha, Darshy
    Published: June 25, 2018
    Publisher:  National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / National Institute of Public Finance and Policy ; no. 234
    Subjects: fiscal marksmanship; budget forecast errors; fiscal rules; rational expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten)
  2. Natural instability of equilibrium prices
    Author: Levando, Dmitry V.; Sakharov, Maxim
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice Italy

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics ; 2018, no. 01
    Subjects: Strategic market games; ill-posed problems; common knowledge; rational expectations; efficient market; price fluctuations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Intrinsic expectations persistence
    evidence from professional and household survey expectations
    Author: Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, [Boston, MA]

    This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center survey of consumers, and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. It finds that... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 82 (2018,9)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center survey of consumers, and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. It finds that the most robust feature of all of these expectations measures is that respondents inefficiently revise their forecasts, significantly underreacting to new information. As a consequence, revisions smooth through arriving information, and expectations forget past information at a rapid rate and appear to anchor to the unconditional mean or other salient anchors. The paper then examines the micro-data evidence bearing on the hypotheses tested by Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who suggest that aggregate surveys may conform to key predictions of the sticky-information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and/or the noisy-information model of Maækowiak and Wiederholt (2009). This paper finds considerably less coherence with these models in the micro data. The paper also provides evidence that distinguishes this behavior from learning, suggesting that the inefficient incorporation of information is much more important quantitatively than least-squares learning in these expectations measures. Finally, this empirical regularity may bear important implications for macroeconomic dynamics, as illustrated in the last sections of the paper, as it provides a micro-based foundation for an earlier paper's finding that intrinsic persistence in expectations may be a key source of macroeconomic persistence (Fuhrer 2017). The paper sketches a model in which agents' inefficient updating of expectations induces excess smoothness in expectations, imparting persistence to macro variables that is due strictly to the expectations formation process.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/202925
    Edition: This version: May 2018
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 18, 9
    Subjects: intrinsic persistence; rational expectations; survey expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Rationalizing rational expectations?
    tests and deviations
    Author: D'Haultfœuille, Xavier; Gaillac, Christophe; Maurel, Arnaud
    Published: November 2018
    Publisher:  IZA, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 4 (11989)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean-preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. Next, we go beyond testing by defining and estimating the minimal deviations from rational expectations that can be rationalized by the data. In the context of structural models, we build on this concept to propose an easy-to-implement way to conduct a sensitivity analysis on the assumed form of expectations. Finally, we apply our framework to test for and quantify deviations from rational expectations about future earnings, and examine the consequences of such departures in the context of a life-cycle model of consumption.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/193283
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 11989
    Subjects: Rationale Erwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Lebenseinkommen; Schätzung; USA; rational expectations; test; data combination; subjective expectations; sensitivity analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen