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Displaying results 1 to 6 of 6.

  1. 'Time inconsistency'
    the Phillips curve example (an analysis for intermediate macroeconomics)
    Author: Natividad-Carlos, Fidelina Borja
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  School of Economics, Univ. of the Philippines, Quezon

    This paper provides the algebra and a panel diagram to attempt to examine the so-called inflation- unemployment (or Phillips curve, or aggregate supply) example, the most popular example in the literature when introducing the concept of "time... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 139 (2013,7)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper provides the algebra and a panel diagram to attempt to examine the so-called inflation- unemployment (or Phillips curve, or aggregate supply) example, the most popular example in the literature when introducing the concept of "time inconsistency" or "dynamic inconsistency". The resulting panel diagram (along with the derivations presented in the appendices) is used to analyze the different possible outcomes, depending on the scenarios - rule or pre-commitment, cheating, and equilibrium - and find out whether there is indeed "time inconsistency" or "dynamic inconsistency" in the said example.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/93582
    Series: Discussion paper / School of Economics, University of the Philippines ; 2013-07
    Subjects: Philips curve; aggregate supply; time inconsistency; dynamic inconsistency; short-run optimal policy; long-run optimal policy; rational expectations; rules vs discretion
    Scope: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  2. A Bayesian model of knightian uncertainty
    Author: Najjar, Nabil I. al-; Weinstein, Jonathan
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IHS, Wien

    A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 387 (300)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model where uncertainty is represented by the agent's subjective belief over the parameter governing future income streams. Whether uncertainty reduces to ordinary risk depends on the agent's ability to smooth consumption. Uncertainty can have a major behavioral and economic impact, including precautionary behavior that may appear overly conservative to an outside observer. We argue that one of the main characteristics of uncertain beliefs is that they are not empirical, in the sense that they cannot be objectively tested to determine whether they are right or wrong. This can confound empirical methods that assume rational expectations.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/97426
    Series: Reihe Ökonomie / Institut für Höhere Studien ; 300
    Subjects: Haushaltseinkommen; Konsumentenverhalten; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Rationale Erwartung; Bayes-Statistik; Theorie; Knightian uncertainty; consumption smoothing; uncertainty premium; rational expectations
    Scope: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  3. Unexpected consequences of Ricardian expectations
    Author: Schlicht, Ekkehart
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ., Volkswirtschaftl. Fak., München

    Economists are widely familiar with the Ricardian equivalence thesis. It maintains that, given the time-path of government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible life-time consumption plans of the households and affects... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 483 (2012,18)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Economists are widely familiar with the Ricardian equivalence thesis. It maintains that, given the time-path of government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible life-time consumption plans of the households and affects neither the demand for commodities and services nor the rate of interest, provided the households act rationally. In this note a surprising finding is established. Assuming that the agents in a standard infinite horizon growth model hold the very expectations the thesis proposes ("Ricardian expectations"), it is shown that these expectations are invalidated. This divergence from the Ricardian equivalence thesis is traced to the omission of interest payments on public debt as part of the households' disposable income. The non-equivalence is valid in a wide class of models.

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/104360
    Series: Munich discussion paper ; [2012-18 (revised)]
    Subjects: Barro-Ricardo equivalence; Ricardian equivalence; fiscal policy; debt; taxation; rational expectations; Ricardian expectations; Barro expectations; tax neutrality; Ricardianische Äquivalenz (STW); Erwartungstheorie (STW); Rationale Erwartung (STW); Theorie (STW)
    Scope: Online-Ressource
  4. Modeling the evolution of expectations and uncertainty in general equilibrium
    Author: Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Ill.

    We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward-looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational,... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 244 (2013,12)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward-looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational, conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allows for an analytical characterization of uncertainty. Shocks to beliefs affect economic dynamics and uncertainty. We use a prototypical Real Business Cycle to illustrate the methods.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/96645
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ; 2013-12
    Subjects: Markov switching; general equilibrium models; uncertainty; Bayesian learning; rational expectations; downside risk; rare disasters
    Scope: Online-Ressource (49, 5 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. A Bayesian model of knightian uncertainty
    Author: Najjar, Nabil I. al-; Weinstein, Jonathan
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Inst. für Höhere Studien (IHS), Wien

    A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    W 1312 (300)
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model where uncertainty is represented by the agent's subjective belief over the parameter governing future income streams. Whether uncertainty reduces to ordinary risk depends on the agent's ability to smooth consumption. Uncertainty can have a major behavioral and economic impact, including precautionary behavior that may appear overly conservative to an outside observer. We argue that one of the main characteristics of uncertain beliefs is that they are not empirical, in the sense that they cannot be objectively tested to determine whether they are right or wrong. This can confound empirical methods that assume rational expectations.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Reihe Ökonomie ; 300
    Subjects: Haushaltseinkommen; Konsumentenverhalten; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Rationale Erwartung; Bayes-Statistik; Theorie; Knightian uncertainty; consumption smoothing; uncertainty premium; rational expectations
    Scope: 28 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
    Notes:

    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen
  6. Unexpected consequences of Ricardian expectations
    Erratum
    Author: Schlicht, Ekkehard
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ., Volkswirtschaftl. Fak., München

    This note identifies a severe mistake in my article “Unexpected Consequences of Ricardian Expectations” that appeard in this journal in the July 2013 issue. more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 483 (2013,15)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This note identifies a severe mistake in my article “Unexpected Consequences of Ricardian Expectations” that appeard in this journal in the July 2013 issue.

     
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/104399
    Series: Munich discussion paper ; 2013-15
    Subjects: Barro-Ricardo equivalence; Ricardian equivalence; fiscal policy; debt; taxation; rational expectations; Ricardian expectations; Barro expectations; tax neutrality
    Scope: Online-Ressource (5 S.)