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  1. Estimating optimal inflation rate in Saudi Arabia
    using dynamic threshold regression model
    Author: Alsabban, Soleman; Alnuwaiser, Sarah N.
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  Saudi Central Bank, [Riadh]

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    Location:
    Fachinformationsverbund Internationale Beziehungen und Länderkunde
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    Location:
    German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    ZSS 58
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: SAMA working paper ; WP 16 (21)
    Subjects: Inflation; Produktion; Optimierung; Korrelation; Statistische Analyse; Optimal Inflation rate; output gap; threshold regression model
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (19 Seiten), Tabellen, Diagramme
    Notes:

    Literaturverzeichnis
  2. Recuperação econômica e fechamento gradual do hiato: um exercício de consistência de médio e longo prazos
    Author: Souza Júnior, José Ronaldo de Castro; Giambiagi, Fabio
    Published: setembro de 2021
    Publisher:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This article discusses which may be the trajectory of the Brazilian economy over the 2020s, particularly in the transition from the current period when there is idle capacity in the economy to a period when the growth of supply capacity may again be... more

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    DS 194
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    This article discusses which may be the trajectory of the Brazilian economy over the 2020s, particularly in the transition from the current period when there is idle capacity in the economy to a period when the growth of supply capacity may again be crucial for growth. From the context created by the recession of 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic - which resulted in the expansion of the output gap - and a discussion of the limitations that will condition the future performance of the economy, we show the scenario outlined, explaining its logic, the determinants and the assumptions. That said, we explain why the pattern of potential GDP recovery expected in the coming years differs from that seen on previous occasions. The fi gures suggest that Brazil will have a modest expansion of potential GDP at the beginning of the projection, however, that the growth of the variable can be accelerated gradually with the gradual increase in the investment rate and productivity growth. Despite the low potential GDP initial growth, the degree of idleness would allow an average GDP growth of around 2.5% pa between the base year of 2021 and the end of the decade - considering the scenario proposed in the article. In this scenario, the country would reach the end of the decade with an investment rate of more than 22% of GDP. Thus, if the country manages to face the challenges of fi scal consolidation and the implementation of reforms that improve productivity and attract private investment, the prospects for the decade would be very promising, after the extremely negative decade of 2010/2020.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Portuguese
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243043
    Series: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2690
    Subjects: potential output; output gap; economic growth; productivity; growth scenarios
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Output gaps and cyclical indicators
    Finnish evidence
    Author: Pönkä, Harri; Sariola, Mikko
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DSP 287
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    The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical indicators. This methodology produces an output gap that is similar to the ones obtained from the main methods used at the Bank of Finland and the European Commission, but requiring considerably less modelling effort. The method is also flexible and can readily be adopted to internalize additional information that captures special circumstances, such as the current pandemic. In this spirit, we extend our information set to include a service turnover indicator, and find that it clearly improves the method's ability to capture the exceptional downturn in 2020.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243288
    Series: BoF economics review ; 2021, 6
    Subjects: cyclical indicators; output gap; potential output; principal component analysis; service turnover; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?
    Author: Kohlscheen, Emanuel
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 546
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: BIS working papers ; no 980 (November 2021)
    Subjects: expectations; forecast; inflation; machine learning; oil price; output gap; Phillips curve
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Cyclical signals from the labor market
    Author: Berger, Tino; Boll, Paul David; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin
    Published: October 12, 2021
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VSP 1716
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 91 (October 2021)
    Subjects: Nowcasting; output gap; Covid-19; U-2 unemployment rate; average hourly earnings
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Globalisation and the slope of the Phillips curve
    Author: Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild
    Published: October 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the effects of globalisation on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for CPI inflation, based on a broad panel of 35 countries and controlling for possibly non-linear exchange rate effects. We find that the output gap generally has... more

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    We study the effects of globalisation on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for CPI inflation, based on a broad panel of 35 countries and controlling for possibly non-linear exchange rate effects. We find that the output gap generally has a significant positive effect on inflation, but that this effect decreases as integration in the global economy increases. We conclude that the advance of globalisation has been a key force behind the flattening of price Phillips curves across the world.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248928
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9383 (2021)
    Subjects: inflation; globalisation; openness; output gap; Phillips curve
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen