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Displaying results 1 to 11 of 11.

  1. Output gap, monetary policy trade-offs, and financial frictions
    Author: Furlanetto, Francesco; Gelain, Paolo; Taheri Sanjani, Marzie
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 36
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 05 (February 2020)
    Subjects: Financial frictions; output gap; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Estimates of r* consistent with a supply-side structure and a monetary policy rule for the U.S. economy
    Author: González-Astudillo, Manuel; Laforte, Jean-Philippe
    Published: September 18, 2020
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 412
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 085
    Subjects: natural rate of interest; natural unemployment rate; output gap; shadow interest rate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Semi-structural VAR and unobserved components models to estimate finance-neutral output gap
    Author: Kátay, Gábor; Kerdelhué, Lisa; Lequien, Matthieu
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural... more

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    DS 628
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    The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural unobserved components model. To complement these models, a semi-structural vector autoregression model is proposed in which only supply shocks are identified. The accuracy of the output gap estimates is assessed based on their performance in predicting recessions. The models with financial variables generally produce more accurate output gap estimates at the expense of increased real-time volatility. While the extended Hodrick-Prescott filter is particularly appealing for its real-time stability, it lags behind the two semi-structural models in terms of forecasting performance. The vector autoregression model augmented with financial variables features the best in-sample forecasting performance, and it has similar real-time prediction capabilities to the semi-structural unobserved components model. Overall, financial cycles appear to be relevant in Japan, Spain, the UK, and - to a lesser extent - in the US and in France, while they are relatively muted in Canada, Germany, and Italy.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789276250821
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249362
    Series: JRC working papers in economics and finance ; 2020, 11
    Subjects: unobserved components model; semi-structural VAR; output gap; financial cycle; sustainable growth; credit; house prices; advanced economies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?
    Author: Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James C.
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Institute of Economic Research, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper series / The Institute of Economic Research, Korea University ; no. 20, 01 (April 6, 2020)
    Subjects: Secular stagnation; Great Recession; output gap; trend growth; Markov switching; structural breaks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  5. Nowcasting the output gap
    Author: Berger, Tino; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin
    Published: August 20, 2020
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2020, 78 (August 2020)
    Subjects: Nowcasting; output gap; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Low inflation bends the Phillips Curve around the world
    Author: Forbes, Kristin; Gagnon, Joseph E.; Collins, Christopher G.
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  MIT Sloan School of Management, [Cambridge, MA]

    This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear specification proposed by the other two (Gagnon and Collins). The results find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear specification proposed by the other two (Gagnon and Collins). The results find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is low, in which case excess economic slack has little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. The estimates also show a significant and economically meaningful Phillips curve relationship between slack and inflation when slack is negative (i.e., when output is above long-run potential). In this nonlinear model, international factors play a large role in explaining headline inflation, a role that has increased over time, supporting the results of Forbes' linear model

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: MIT Sloan School working paper ; 6101 (20)
    Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper ; No. 20-6, 2020
    Subjects: Economic slack; globalization; output gap; price dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  7. Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the World
    Author: Forbes, Kristin; Gagnon, Joseph E.; Collins, Christopher G.
    Published: March 2020
    Publisher:  PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics ; 20, 6
    Subjects: Economic slack; globalization; output gap; price dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  8. Monetary policy and asset price overshooting
    a rationale for the Wall/Main Street disconnect
    Author: Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
    Published: 13 August 2020
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP15163
    Subjects: Monetary policy; output gap; asset prices; overshooting; Wall/MainStreet disconnect; Covid-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe
    Author: Stæhr, Karsten
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Eesti Pank, Tallinn

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789949606726
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    Series: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 4,2020
    Subjects: export; competitiveness; capacity utilisation; output gap; unemployment; Central and Eastern Europe
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa?
    Author: Botha, Byron; Kuhn, Lauren; Steenkamp, Daan
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  Economic Research and Statistics Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: South African Reserve Bank working paper series ; WP, 20, 07
    Subjects: Phillips curve; output gap; real-time estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Commodity prices and policy stabilisation in South Africa
    Author: Botha, Byron; Schaling, Eric
    Published: September 4, 2020
    Publisher:  Economic Research and Statistics Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: South African Reserve Bank working paper series ; WP, 20, 11
    Subjects: statistical filtering; output gap; commodity prices; Taylor-rule
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen