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  1. Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU
    implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance
    Author: Lendvai, Julia; Salto, Matteo; Thum-Thysen, Anna
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Europ. Comm., Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels

    This paper discusses the fiscal policy implications of applying an alternative output gap methodology. The alternative methodology replaces the NAWRU by the structural unemployment rate (SUR) estimated by DG ECFIN in the calculation of potential GDP.... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 289 (552)
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    This paper discusses the fiscal policy implications of applying an alternative output gap methodology. The alternative methodology replaces the NAWRU by the structural unemployment rate (SUR) estimated by DG ECFIN in the calculation of potential GDP. The note studies how the use of this method changes the properties of trend and cyclical variables and it analyses the properties of the estimated structural fiscal balance and fiscal effort for the EA12. The results suggest that the SUR-based potential growth and structural balance are somewhat less procyclical than the standard potential growth and structural balance. They are also somewhat less affected by forecast revisions at the end of the sample, i.e. the period relevant for fiscal policy. Also, the SUR-based indicators suggest worse underlying economic conditions in relatively good times and better underlying economic conditions in relatively bad times than the NAWRUbased indicators. Thereby, they tend to show a less favourable structural fiscal position in good times and a more favourable one in bad times. Quantitatively, differences in indicators are found to be larger for Member States which had sizeable fluctuations in the unemployment rate over the past decade. Given its different concept of the cycle and the trend component, other things equal, the SUR-method would provide incentives to accommodate highly persistent shocks (e.g. hysteresis), while the standard method considers these to be beyond the scope of fiscal policy.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279448263
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 552
    Subjects: structural balance; output gap; potential growth; debt; deficit; stabilisation; economic stabilisation; economic analysis; economic growth; economic fluctuation; fiscal policy; government policy; budget deficit; unemployment; public debt
    Scope: Online-Ressource (21 S.), graph. Darst.
  2. Income insurance
    a theoretical exercise with empirical application for the euro area
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Europ. Comm., Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels

    This paper examines whether hypothetical macroeconomic insurance schemes of various kinds could improve the degree of cyclical income stabilisation in the euro area. We review the potential issues, the underlying trade-offs and the necessary... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Signature:
    EDZ online a
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 289 (546)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper examines whether hypothetical macroeconomic insurance schemes of various kinds could improve the degree of cyclical income stabilisation in the euro area. We review the potential issues, the underlying trade-offs and the necessary conditions for such schemes to work efficiently. The paper discusses "good" design features, which raise the potential efficiency and acceptability of these mechanisms. It argues that such schemes would preferably focus on large shocks, moderate the boom times as well as cushion adverse shocks, and include a degree of budgetary prudence to cater for real-time uncertainty in assessing business cycles. It also carries out retrospective empirical simulations using both "ex post" and "real-time" data for the euro area. The results suggest that all the schemes considered would have provided non-negligible income insurance over the past 10-20 years, although somewhat less so when operating on the basis of data available in real time. The insurance schemes reviewed do not require particularly large or persistent payments into or out of them.

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279448140
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 546
    Subjects: income smoothing; fiscal stabilisers; transfer scheme; output gap; Insurance; income stabilisation; euro area; incomes policy; economic cycle; international finance; intergovernmental cooperation (EU); economic analysis; macroeconomics
    Scope: Online-Ressource (76 S.), graph. Darst.