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  1. Recuperação econômica e fechamento gradual do hiato: um exercício de consistência de médio e longo prazos
    Author: Souza Júnior, José Ronaldo de Castro; Giambiagi, Fabio
    Published: setembro de 2021
    Publisher:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This article discusses which may be the trajectory of the Brazilian economy over the 2020s, particularly in the transition from the current period when there is idle capacity in the economy to a period when the growth of supply capacity may again be... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 194
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This article discusses which may be the trajectory of the Brazilian economy over the 2020s, particularly in the transition from the current period when there is idle capacity in the economy to a period when the growth of supply capacity may again be crucial for growth. From the context created by the recession of 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic - which resulted in the expansion of the output gap - and a discussion of the limitations that will condition the future performance of the economy, we show the scenario outlined, explaining its logic, the determinants and the assumptions. That said, we explain why the pattern of potential GDP recovery expected in the coming years differs from that seen on previous occasions. The fi gures suggest that Brazil will have a modest expansion of potential GDP at the beginning of the projection, however, that the growth of the variable can be accelerated gradually with the gradual increase in the investment rate and productivity growth. Despite the low potential GDP initial growth, the degree of idleness would allow an average GDP growth of around 2.5% pa between the base year of 2021 and the end of the decade - considering the scenario proposed in the article. In this scenario, the country would reach the end of the decade with an investment rate of more than 22% of GDP. Thus, if the country manages to face the challenges of fi scal consolidation and the implementation of reforms that improve productivity and attract private investment, the prospects for the decade would be very promising, after the extremely negative decade of 2010/2020.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Portuguese
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243043
    Series: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2690
    Subjects: potential output; output gap; economic growth; productivity; growth scenarios
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Produto potencial como ferramenta de análise da política monetária e da capacidade de crescimento da economia brasileira
    Author: Souza Júnior, José Ronaldo de Castro; Caetano, Sidney Martins
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IPEA, Brasília, DF

    It is proposed to estimate two versions of the potential output for Brazil in the period 1992-2010, through the production function and the HP filter, and use these results to: i) assess the relevance of the output gap in the monetary policy... more

    Location:
    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    It is proposed to estimate two versions of the potential output for Brazil in the period 1992-2010, through the production function and the HP filter, and use these results to: i) assess the relevance of the output gap in the monetary policy decisions (comparing the two estimates); and ii) to analyze sources of growth of potential output. The estimated production function indicates that the low productivity growth may have been a major contributor to the low growth potential of the country. Estimates indicate that it was not possible to achieve rates of potential output growth above 4% a.a. When considering the influence of the output gap in the reaction function of monetary authority, it appears that both measures generate similar performance. Therefore, if the analyst seeks only to measure the variation of the output gap, the HP filter may be more appropriate given its methodological simplicity.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Portuguese
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91243
    Series: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 1881
    Subjects: potential output; output gap; monetary policy; economic growth and aggregate productivity
    Scope: Online-Ressource (41 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  3. Produto potencial como ferramenta de análise da política monetária e da capacidade de crescimento da economia brasileira
    Author: Souza Júnior, José Ronaldo de Castro; Caetano, Sidney Martins
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IPEA, Brasília, DF

    It is proposed to estimate two versions of the potential output for Brazil in the period 1992-2010, through the production function and the HP filter, and use these results to: i) assess the relevance of the output gap in the monetary policy... more

    Location:
    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 194 (1881)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    It is proposed to estimate two versions of the potential output for Brazil in the period 1992-2010, through the production function and the HP filter, and use these results to: i) assess the relevance of the output gap in the monetary policy decisions (comparing the two estimates); and ii) to analyze sources of growth of potential output. The estimated production function indicates that the low productivity growth may have been a major contributor to the low growth potential of the country. Estimates indicate that it was not possible to achieve rates of potential output growth above 4% a.a. When considering the influence of the output gap in the reaction function of monetary authority, it appears that both measures generate similar performance. Therefore, if the analyst seeks only to measure the variation of the output gap, the HP filter may be more appropriate given its methodological simplicity.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Portuguese
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91243
    Series: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 1881
    Subjects: potential output; output gap; monetary policy; economic growth and aggregate productivity
    Scope: Online-Ressource (41 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache