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  1. Baseline results from the new EU27 EUROMOD (2007-2010)
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper provides a description of the latest public release of EUROMOD (version F6.0++), a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of constructing and updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for... more

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    This paper provides a description of the latest public release of EUROMOD (version F6.0++), a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of constructing and updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and risk of poverty using EUROMOD and discuss the main reasons for differences between these and EU-SILC based indicators. We further compare EUROMOD indicators across countries and over time between 2007 and 2010. Finally, we provide estimates of marginal effective tax rates (METR) for all 27 EU countries in order to explore the effect of tax and benefit systems on work incentives at the intensive margin. Throughout we highlight both the potential of EUROMOD as a tool for policy analysis and the caveats that should be borne in mind when using it and interpreting results.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91661
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM3/13
    Subjects: microsimulation; redistribution; tax-benefit system; poverty; inequality; work incentives
    Scope: Online-Ressource (42 S.), graph. Darst.
  2. The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation in nine EU countries
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    We compare the distributional effects of policy changes presented as fiscal consolidation measures in nine EU countries that experienced large budget deficits following the financial crisis of the late 2000s and subsequent economic downturn, using... more

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    We compare the distributional effects of policy changes presented as fiscal consolidation measures in nine EU countries that experienced large budget deficits following the financial crisis of the late 2000s and subsequent economic downturn, using the EU microsimulation model EUROMOD. The nine countries, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania and the UK, chose different policy mixes to achieve varying degrees of fiscal consolidation. We find that the burden of fiscal consolidation brought about through the first round effects of increases in personal taxes, cuts in spending on cash benefits and reductions in public sector pay is shared differently across the income distribution in the nine countries. In Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Romania and the UK the better off lose a higher proportion of their incomes than the poor. At the other extreme, in Estonia, the poor lose a higher proportion than the rich. In Lithuania and Portugal the burden of fiscal consolidation falls more heavily on the poor and the rich than it does on those with middle incomes. Including increases in VAT alters the comparative picture by making the policy packages appear more regressive, to varying extents.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/91653
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 2/13
    Subjects: austerity measures; European Union; fiscal consolidation; income distribution; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (45 S.), graph. Darst.
  3. Austerity and the income distribution
    the case of Cyprus
    Author: Koutsampelas, Christos; Polycarpou, Alexandros
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The economic crisis affecting Cyprus is likely to have considerable impact on the income distribution. Our analysis provides an early assessment of the short-run distributional effects of austerity measures. We distinguish between fiscal measures... more

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    The economic crisis affecting Cyprus is likely to have considerable impact on the income distribution. Our analysis provides an early assessment of the short-run distributional effects of austerity measures. We distinguish between fiscal measures that affect wages, taxes and contribution rates and measures that directly affect the function of the welfare system. Using the tax-benefit EUROMOD model we attempt to quantify the distributional implications of both. The analysis focuses on the policy changes introduced over the period between 2011 and 2012, i.e. before the expected bailout deal between the government of Cyprus and the consortium of international lenders which is expected in spring 2013. Specifically, we simulate the ceteris paribus impact of the reforms on inequality and poverty as well as estimate how the burden of austerity has been shared across income groups.

     
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    hdl: 10419/91641
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 4/13
    Subjects: austerity; Cyprus; social policy; inequality; poverty; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (23 S.)
  4. Towards a European Union child basic income?
    within and between country effects
    Author: Levy, Horacio; Matsaganis, Manos; Sutherland, Holly
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper explores the within and between country distributional implications of an illustrative Child Basic Income (CBI) operated at EU level. Using EUROMOD, we establish that a universal payment of €50 per month per child aged under 6 could take... more

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    This paper explores the within and between country distributional implications of an illustrative Child Basic Income (CBI) operated at EU level. Using EUROMOD, we establish that a universal payment of €50 per month per child aged under 6 could take 800,000 children in this age group out of poverty. It could be financed by an EU flat tax of 0.2% on all household income, assuming that it would also be taxed nationally as income. Most member states and virtually all families with children aged under 6 would be net gainers. We simulate two versions of EU CBI, with the benefit rate of €50 per month adjusted or not for differences in purchasing power between member states. In general, fiscal flows between member states, and also poverty reduction, would be smaller under the adjusted version. The political feasibility of such a scheme might be questioned, especially within the net contributor countries. Nevertheless, for those seeking ways to strengthen solidarity across national boundaries, a scheme supporting the incomes of families with young children, wherever in the EU they might reside "could be a demonstration of the EU's commitment to children, to the future" (EC 2012a: 62).

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/91649
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 6/13
    Subjects: child basic income; European Union; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (21 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. Tax-benefit systems, income distribution and work incentives in the European Union
    Author: Jara, H. Xavier; Tumino, Alberto
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    In this paper we study the impact of tax-benefit systems on income inequality and work incentives across the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU). Using EUROMOD, the EU-wide taxbenefit microsimulation model, we disentangle the role of taxes,... more

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    In this paper we study the impact of tax-benefit systems on income inequality and work incentives across the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU). Using EUROMOD, the EU-wide taxbenefit microsimulation model, we disentangle the role of taxes, benefits and social insurance contributions in influencing country specific Gini coefficients and Marginal Effective Tax Rates.The extent to which tax-benefit systems contribute to income redistribution and provide work incentives at the intensive margin is found to vary considerably across the 27 Member States of the EU. Our results further highlight the presence of a trade-off between income redistribution and work incentives across EU-27 countries.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91665
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 7/13
    Subjects: inequality; work incentives; tax-benefit systems; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (32, 5 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. EUROMOD
    the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model
    Author: Sutherland, Holly; Figari, Francesco
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper aims to provide an introduction to the current state of the art of EUROMOD, the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model. It explains the original motivations for building a multi-country EU-wide model and summarises its current... more

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    This paper aims to provide an introduction to the current state of the art of EUROMOD, the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model. It explains the original motivations for building a multi-country EU-wide model and summarises its current organisation. It provides an overview of EUROMOD components, covering its policy scope, the input data, the validation process and some technical aspects such as the tax-benefit programming language and the user interface. The paper also reviews some recent applications of EUROMOD and, finally, considers future developments.

     
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    hdl: 10419/91644
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 8/13
    Subjects: EUROMOD; microsimulation; Europe
    Scope: Online-Ressource (23 S.)
  7. Impact assessment of alternative reforms of child allowances using RUSMOD
    the static tax-benefit microsimulation model for Russia
    Author: Popova, Daria
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    RUSMOD is a static tax-benefit microsimulation model for Russia. The model can be used for ex post and ex ante evaluation of reforms of personal income taxation and social benefits in Russia. In addition, being compatible with EUROMOD, the Russian... more

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    RUSMOD is a static tax-benefit microsimulation model for Russia. The model can be used for ex post and ex ante evaluation of reforms of personal income taxation and social benefits in Russia. In addition, being compatible with EUROMOD, the Russian model is suitable for simulation of cross-country policy transfers. The aim of this paper is to shed light on various aspects of the model. It discusses specific problems arising in the evaluation of unreported income and benefits non-take up in Russia. The final estimates of poverty and inequality from RUSMOD are very close to those based on National accounts; hence, the model can be seen as a reliable tool for evaluating the current performance of the Russian tax-benefit system and the distributive impact of potential tax-benefit reforms. Then the paper provides an example of application of the model - an analysis of alternative scenarios for improving the design of child allowances in Russia. Currently, this benefit has a poor targeting performance and varies across regions of Russia in terms of design and generosity, which raises serious equity concerns. Redirecting these resources to the poor - by means of better targeting and raising the benefit amounts - brings about significant improvements in overall and child poverty indicators even at the current level of spending. The most sizable impact on poverty is achieved by implementing the unified national design of the program.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/91663
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 9/13
    Subjects: tax-benefit policy; microsimulation; regional policies; Russia
    Scope: Online-Ressource ([ca. 39] S. in getr. Zählung), graph. Darst.
  8. Financial support for families with children and its trade-offs
    balancing redistribution and parental work incentives
    Author: Myck, Michał; Kurowska, Anna; Kundera, Michał
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IZA, Bonn

    Financial support for families with children implies inherent trade-offs some of which are less obvious than others. In the end these trade-offs determine the effectiveness of policy with respect to the material situation of families and employment... more

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    Financial support for families with children implies inherent trade-offs some of which are less obvious than others. In the end these trade-offs determine the effectiveness of policy with respect to the material situation of families and employment of their parents. We analyse several kinds of trade-offs involved using a careful selection of potential changes to the system of financial support for families with children. We focus on: 1) the trade-off between redistribution of income to poorer households and improving work incentives, 2) the trade-off between improving work incentives for first and for second earners in couples, 3) the trade-off between improving work incentives for those facing strong and weak incentives in the baseline system. The exercise is conducted on data from Poland, a country characterized by high levels of child poverty, low female employment and one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe. We demonstrate the complexity of potential consequences of family support policy and stress the need for well-defined policy goals and careful analysis ahead of any reform.

     
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    Language: English
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/80522
    Series: Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 7506
    Subjects: labour supply; tax and benefit reforms; microsimulation; family policy
    Scope: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Testing the statistical significance of microsimulation results
    often easier than you think ; a technical note
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    In the microsimulation literature, it is still uncommon to test the statistical significance of results. In this paper we argue that this situation is both undesirable and unnecessary. Provided the parameters used in the microsimulation are... more

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    In the microsimulation literature, it is still uncommon to test the statistical significance of results. In this paper we argue that this situation is both undesirable and unnecessary. Provided the parameters used in the microsimulation are exogenous, as is often the case in static microsimulation of the first-order effects of policy changes, simple statistical tests can be sufficient. Moreover, standard routines have been developed which enable applied researchers to calculate the sampling variance of microsimulation results, while taking the sample design into account, even of relatively complex statistics such as relative poverty, inequality measures and indicators of polarization, with relative ease and a limited time investment. We stress that when comparing simulated and baseline variables, as well as when comparing two simulated variables, it is crucial to take account of the covariance between those variables. Due to this covariance, the mean difference between the variables can generally (though not always) be estimated with much greater precision than the means of the separate variables.

     
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    hdl: 10419/91645
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 18/13
    Subjects: Statistical inference; significance tests; microsimulation; covariance; t-test; EUROMOD
    Scope: Online-Ressource (14, 11 S.)
  10. Distributional implications of tax evasion and the crisis in Greece
    Author: Leventi, Chrysa; Matsaganis, Manos; Flevotomou, Maria
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The current Greek crisis and the government's fiscal consolidation effort have elevated tax evasion to one of the most crucial policy issues in the domestic debate. The paper attempts to shed light on one aspect of the phenomenon, namely its... more

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    The current Greek crisis and the government's fiscal consolidation effort have elevated tax evasion to one of the most crucial policy issues in the domestic debate. The paper attempts to shed light on one aspect of the phenomenon, namely its distributional implications. We compare a large panel data sample of personal income tax returns in 2006-2010 (incomes earned in 2005-2009) with data from the European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions of the same years. We show that the deviation of incomes between the two data sources is greater in the case of farming and self-employment income. Based on these findings we then calculate stylised factors of income under-reporting by income source. These factors are fed into a tax-benefit microsimulation model to provide tentative estimates of the size and distribution of income tax evasion in Greece in 2009. We estimate income under-reporting at 12.2%, resulting in a shortfall in personal income tax receipts of 29.7%. The paper shows that the effects of tax evasion in Greece are higher income inequality and much lower progressivity of the income tax system.

     
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    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/91662
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM17/13
    Subjects: tax evasion; inequality; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (14 S.), graph. Darst.
  11. Changes in income distribution and the role of tax-benefit policy during the great recession
    an international perspective
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper examines the impact on inequality and poverty of the economic crisis in four European countries, namely France, Germany, the UK and Ireland, and the contribution of tax and benefit policy changes. The period examined, 2008 to 2010, was one... more

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    This paper examines the impact on inequality and poverty of the economic crisis in four European countries, namely France, Germany, the UK and Ireland, and the contribution of tax and benefit policy changes. The period examined, 2008 to 2010, was one of great economic turmoil, yet it is unclear whether changes in inequality and poverty rates over this time period were mainly driven by changes in market income distributions or by tax-benefit policy reforms. We disentangle these effects by producing counterfactual ("no reform") scenarios using tax-benefit microsimulation and representative household surveys of each country. For the period under study, we find that the policy reaction has contributed to stabilizing or even decreasing inequality and relative poverty in the UK, France and especially in Ireland, a country where rising unemployment would have otherwise increased poverty. Market income inequality has nonetheless pushed up inequality and relative poverty in France. Relative poverty and, notably, child poverty, have increased in Germany due to policy responses combined with the increasing inequality of market income.

     
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    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/91642
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 21/13
    Subjects: tax-benefit policy; inequality; poverty; decomposition; microsimulation; crisis
    Scope: Online-Ressource (36 S.), graph. Darst.
  12. Changes in income distributions and the role of tax-benefit policy during the Great Recession
    an international perspective
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IZA, Bonn

    This paper examines the impact on inequality and poverty of the economic crisis in four European countries, namely France, Germany, the UK and Ireland, and the contribution of tax and benefit policy changes. The period examined, 2008 to 2010, was one... more

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    This paper examines the impact on inequality and poverty of the economic crisis in four European countries, namely France, Germany, the UK and Ireland, and the contribution of tax and benefit policy changes. The period examined, 2008 to 2010, was one of great economic turmoil, yet it is unclear whether changes in inequality and poverty rates over this time period were mainly driven by changes in market income distributions or by tax-benefit policy reforms. We disentangle these effects by producing counterfactual ("no reform") scenarios using tax-benefit microsimulation and representative household surveys of each country. For the period under study, we find that the policy reaction has contributed to stabilizing or even decreasing inequality and relative poverty in the UK, France and especially in Ireland, a country where rising unemployment would have otherwise increased poverty. Market income inequality has nonetheless pushed up inequality and relative poverty in France. Relative poverty and, notably, child poverty, have increased in Germany due to policy responses combined with the increasing inequality of market income.

     
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    hdl: 10419/90082
    Series: Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 7737
    Subjects: tax-benefit policy; inequality; poverty; decomposition; microsimulation; crisis
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  13. Behavioral effects of a federal minimum wage and income inequality in Germany
    conference paper
    Author: Müller, Kai-Uwe; Steiner, Viktor
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  ZBW, [Kiel

    Empirical studies on minimum wages are primarily concerned with employment while their effects on income inequality receive less attention. Yet, a popular argument for a federal minimum wage in Germany is that it will prevent in-work poverty and... more

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    Empirical studies on minimum wages are primarily concerned with employment while their effects on income inequality receive less attention. Yet, a popular argument for a federal minimum wage in Germany is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for different minimum wage levels on the basis of a microsimulation model that accounts for the interactions between wages, the tax-benefit system and net incomes at the household level. The methodological approach of an earlier study is extended by incorporating behavioral adjustments at different margins (labor supply and demand, consumption) for the first time into a microsimulation framework at the household level. We use data from the SOEP, the IABS, and the Continuous Household Budget Survey. We show that even a high federal minimum wage will only have a minor impact on inequality among households with at least one minimum-wage worker. Low wage earners are not not concentrated in the lower parts but rather scattered over the income distribution. Wage increases often substitute welfare transfers and are subject to high marginal tax rates. A decline in labor demand could diminish the gains in net incomes up to 50% and higher product prices further reduce these gains even after consumption adjusts. Although it might decrease wage inequality substantially, the distributive impact of a minimum wage on disposable incomes is thus very limited.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/79784
    Series: Array ; V1
    Subjects: minimum wage; wage distribution; employment effects; income distribution; inequality; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (1, 47 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. Distributional implications of the crisis in Greece in 2009 - 2012
    Author: Leventi, Chrysa; Matsaganis, Manos
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The severe economic crisis affecting Greece since 2009 is having an unprecedented impact in terms of job and income losses, and is widely perceived to have a comparably significant effect in terms of greater inequality and increased poverty. We... more

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    The severe economic crisis affecting Greece since 2009 is having an unprecedented impact in terms of job and income losses, and is widely perceived to have a comparably significant effect in terms of greater inequality and increased poverty. We provide an assessment of whether (and to what extent) the latter is the case. More specifically, we use the European tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD in order to quantify the impact of the austerity (i.e. fiscal consolidation policies) and the recession (i.e. negative developments in the wider economy) on the distribution of incomes in 2009-2012, and estimate how the burden of the crisis has been shared across income groups. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our research.

     
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    hdl: 10419/91657
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 14/13
    Subjects: austerity; Greece; poverty; inequality; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (45 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. Efficiency and equity aspects of energy taxation
    Author: Vandyck, Toon
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    We analyse the distributional effects of increased oil excises in Belgium by combining a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with the EUROMOD microsimulation framework that exploits the rich detail of household-level data. The link between the... more

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    We analyse the distributional effects of increased oil excises in Belgium by combining a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with the EUROMOD microsimulation framework that exploits the rich detail of household-level data. The link between the CGE model and the micro level is top-down, feeding changes in commodity prices, factor returns and employment by sector into a non-behavioural microsimulation. The results suggest that policymakers face an equity-efficiency trade-off driven by the choice of revenue recycling options. Distributional effects of the environmental tax reform appear to depend strongly on changes in factor prices and welfare payments.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91651
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 12/13
    Subjects: Energy policy; income distribution; CGE; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (22 S.), graph. Darst.
  16. Baseline results from the EU27 EUROMOD (2009 - 2012)
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper presents baseline results from the latest version of EUROMOD (version F6.36+), the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and... more

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    This paper presents baseline results from the latest version of EUROMOD (version F6.36+), the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and risk of poverty using EUROMOD and discuss the main reasons for differences between these and EU-SILC based indicators. We further compare EUROMOD indicators across countries and over time between 2009 and 2012. Finally, we provide estimates of marginal effective tax rates (METR) for all 27 EU countries in order to explore the effect of tax and benefit systems on work incentives at the intensive margin. Throughout we highlight both the potential of EUROMOD as a tool for policy analysis and the caveats that should be borne in mind when using it and interpreting results. This paper updates the work reported in EUROMOD Working Paper EM3/2013.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91655
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM13/13
    Subjects: microsimulation; redistribution; tax-benefit system; poverty; inequality; work incentives
    Scope: Online-Ressource (36 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. Financial support for families with children and its trade-off s balancing redistribution and parental work incentives
    Author: Myck, Michał; Kurowska, Anna; Kundera, Michał
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  DIW, Berlin

    Financial support for families with children implies inherent trade-offs some of which are less obvious than others. In the end these trade-offs determine the effectiveness of policy with respect to the material situation of families and employment... more

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Financial support for families with children implies inherent trade-offs some of which are less obvious than others. In the end these trade-offs determine the effectiveness of policy with respect to the material situation of families and employment of their parents. We analyse several kinds of trade-offs involved using a careful selection of potential changes to the system of financial support for families with children. We focus on: 1) the trade-off between redistribution of income to poorer households and improving work incentives, 2) the trade-off between improving work incentives for first and for second earners in couples, 3) the trade-off between improving work incentives for those facing strong and weak incentives in the baseline system. The exercise is conducted on data from Poland, a country characterized by high levels of child poverty, low female employment and one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe. We demonstrate the complexity of potential consequences of family support policy and stress the need for well-defined policy goals and careful analysis ahead of any reform.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/79256
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1315
    Subjects: labour supply; tax and benefit reforms; microsimulation; family policy
    Scope: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  18. Nowcasting indicators of poverty risk in the European Union
    a microsimulation approach
    Author: Navicke, Jekaterina; Rastrigina, Olga; Sutherland, Holly
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies.... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2 to 3 year delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate ("nowcast") the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. We validate the method by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008-2012, and where possible compare our predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91658
    Series: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 11/13
    Subjects: microsimulation; poverty; Euromod; nowcast; income; European Union
    Scope: Online-Ressource (22 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. Distributional effects of a minimum wage in a welfare state
    the case of Germany
    Author: Müller, Kai-Uwe; Steiner, Viktor
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Freie Univ. Berlin, FB Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Berlin

    A popular argument for a federal minimum wage is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for Germany, a welfare state with a relative generous means-tested social minimum and high marginal tax... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 79 (2013,21)
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    A popular argument for a federal minimum wage is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for Germany, a welfare state with a relative generous means-tested social minimum and high marginal tax rates. Our analysis is based on a microsimulation model that accounts for the interactions between wages, the tax-benefit system and net incomes at the household level as well as employment and price effects on the distribution of incomes induced by the introduction of a minimum wage. We show that the impact of even a relatively high federal minimum wage on disposable incomes is small because low wage earners are scattered over the whole income distribution and wage increases would to a large extent be offset by reductions in means-tested welfare transfers and high marginal tax rates. Taking into account negative employment effects and increases in consumer prices induced by the minimum wage would wipe out any positive direct effects on net incomes of households affected by the minimum wage.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/90876
    Series: Array ; 2013/21
    Subjects: minimum wage; employment effects; income distribution; inequality; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (28 S.)
  20. Distributional effects of a minimum wage in a welfare state
    the case of Germany
    Author: Müller, Kai-Uwe; Steiner, Viktor
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  DIW, Berlin

    A popular argument for a federal minimum wage is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for Germany, a welfare state with a relative generous means-tested social minimum and high marginal tax... more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Signature:
    DS 318 (617)
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    A popular argument for a federal minimum wage is that it will prevent in-work poverty and reduce income inequality. We examine this assertion for Germany, a welfare state with a relative generous means-tested social minimum and high marginal tax rates. Our analysis is based on a microsimulation model that accounts for the interactions between wages, the tax-benefit system and net incomes at the household level as well as employment and price effects on the distribution of incomes induced by the introduction of a minimum wage. We show that the impact of even a relatively high federal minimum wage on disposable incomes is small because low wage earners are scattered over the whole income distribution and wage increases would to a large extent be offset by reductions in means-tested welfare transfers and high marginal tax rates. Taking into account negative employment effects and increases in consumer prices induced by the minimum wage would wipe out any positive direct effects on net incomes of households affected by the minimum wage.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/92496
    Series: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 617
    Subjects: minimum wage; employment effects; income distribution; inequality; microsimulation
    Scope: Online-Ressource (28 S.)
  21. Shifting taxes from labor to consumption
    efficient, but regressive?
    Author: Pestel, Nico; Sommer, Eric
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  DIW, Berlin

    Shifting taxes from labor income to consumption is regularly suggested as a measure to induce work incentives. We investigate the effect of increases in the Value Added Tax on labor supply and the income distribution in Germany, which is compensated... more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Shifting taxes from labor income to consumption is regularly suggested as a measure to induce work incentives. We investigate the effect of increases in the Value Added Tax on labor supply and the income distribution in Germany, which is compensated by a revenue-neutral reduction in income-related taxes. Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of labor supply behavior, we confirm a general regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for personal income tax reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become substantially lower when payroll taxes are reduced, which is due to increased work incentives, especially for low-income households.

     
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    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/92505
    Series: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 624
    Subjects: Income and payroll taxes; consumption taxes; microsimulation; labor supply; inequality; Germany
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  22. State of the art
    family-related foresight approach
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Vienna Inst. of Demography, Vienna

    This state-of-the-art report discusses the substantive and methodological background for the construction and application of a family-related foresight method. The substantive part includes a brief presentation of two preceding family-oriented... more

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    DS 453 (2013,8)
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    This state-of-the-art report discusses the substantive and methodological background for the construction and application of a family-related foresight method. The substantive part includes a brief presentation of two preceding family-oriented foresight methods: one run by the OECD in 2012 (producing two scenarios) and the other by the FamilyPlatform (producing four scenarios), the forerunners of the FamiliesAndSocieties project. The methodological background focuses on microsimulation and agent-based models, two quantitative models that will serve as new tools for foresight. Their application is considered in a systematic framework along with other standard foresight tools such as workshops and focus groups.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/97010
    Series: Working papers / Vienna Institute of Demography ; 8/2013
    Subjects: family foresight; microsimulation; agent-based models; online questionnaire
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 26 S.)
  23. Shifting taxes from labor to consumption
    efficient, but regressive?
    Author: Pestel, Nico; Sommer, Eric
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IZA, Bonn

    Shifting taxes from labor income to consumption is regularly suggested as a measure to induce work incentives. We investigate the effect of increases in the Value Added Tax on labor supply and the income distribution in Germany, which is compensated... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 4 (7804)
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    Shifting taxes from labor income to consumption is regularly suggested as a measure to induce work incentives. We investigate the effect of increases in the Value Added Tax on labor supply and the income distribution in Germany, which is compensated by a revenue-neutral reduction in income-related taxes. Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of labor supply behavior, we confirm a general regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for personal income tax reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become substantially lower when payroll taxes are reduced, which is due to increased work incentives, especially for low-income households.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/90030
    Series: Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 7804
    Subjects: income and payroll taxes; consumption taxes; microsimulation; labor supply; inequality; Germany
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.