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  1. German economy in Spring 2023
    economy is stabilizing but little momentum going forward
    Author: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The recovery of the global economy from the Covid crisis came to an end in 2022 amid high energy prices and great uncertainty. While the energy crisis is easing, the effects of monetary policy, which was tightened rather late but then very quickly,... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DSP 278
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The recovery of the global economy from the Covid crisis came to an end in 2022 amid high energy prices and great uncertainty. While the energy crisis is easing, the effects of monetary policy, which was tightened rather late but then very quickly, are now increasingly weighing on growth. World output slowed to a crawl toward the end of the year and is expected to expand only moderately in the current year despite a post-Covid revival in China. Measured on a purchasing power parity basis, we anticipate global growth of 2.5 percent in 2023, following 3.2 percent last year. We have raised our forecast for 2023 by 0.4 percentage points from December, partly because of the improved situation on energy markets and partly because the economy in the United States has proved more robust than expected. Our forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 3.2 percent. Although inflation is likely to fall significantly in the coming months thanks to lower commodity prices, underlying inflation is likely to remain high for the time being and will not return to near the target levels before the end of the forecast horizon.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/271183
    Series: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 101 (2023/Q1)
    Subjects: business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. German economy in summer 2023
    crawling out of the crisis
    Author: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The renewed decline in GDP in the first quarter and the recent deterioration in leading indicators have increased concerns that the aftermath of the energy crisis and the tightening of monetary policy may weigh more heavily on the economy than... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DSP 278
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The renewed decline in GDP in the first quarter and the recent deterioration in leading indicators have increased concerns that the aftermath of the energy crisis and the tightening of monetary policy may weigh more heavily on the economy than expected. However, all in all it is more likely that the German economy will return to a moderate expansionary path in the course of the year, despite the headwinds. The decline in GDP in the first quarter was mainly due to a one-time slump in public consumption, rather than reflecting a broad-based economic slowdown. The manufacturing industry can rely on its still high order backlogs. Consumer-related service industries will benefit from strong wage increases. Altogether, GDP is likely to decline by 0.3 percent this year due to the weak economic activity in the winter half-year (spring forecast: +0.5 percent). For 2024, we expect an increase of 1.8 percent (spring forecast: 1.4 percent). Inflation will decrease significantly in the course of the year. On average, however, consumer prices will still rise strongly by 5.8 percent this year. In the next year, inflation will be significantly lower at about 2 percent. The labour market will be less affected by the current phase of economic weakness than by the demographically induced decline in labour supply, which is likely to lead to a decline in the number of people employed in 2024. The public budget deficit is expected to fall from 2.7 percent relative to GDP in 2022 to 0.9 percent in 2024, despite the weak economic momentum.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279699
    Series: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 104 (2023/Q2)
    Subjects: business cycle forecast; leading indicators; outlook; stabilization policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen