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  1. Recovery ready for second take off
    Author: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has interrupted the recovery in Germany. GDP is set to decline in the first quarter of this year, after stagnating in the previous quarter. However, with the vaccination campaign progressing, the economic... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DSP 278
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    The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has interrupted the recovery in Germany. GDP is set to decline in the first quarter of this year, after stagnating in the previous quarter. However, with the vaccination campaign progressing, the economic burden of the pandemic will ease and the recovery will continue at a rapid pace. Unlike last year, the economic losses are currently much more concentrated on consumer-related service industries and retail trade. Even though the negative impact on private consumer spending is currently even more severe than at the beginning of the pandemic, the overall economic impact will be much smaller. The main reason is that the export business continues to recover. Moreover, with sustained relief in sight for many companies due to the availability of effective vaccines, there will be no major decline in investment. Overall, GDP is expected to pick up strongly with growth rates of 3.7 percent this year and 4.8 percent next year, following the decline of 4.9 per cent in 2020. The recovery at the labor market will take more time. On average, employment is not yet expected to be higher in 2021 than in 2020; it will only pick up noticeably in 2022. Inflation is expected to rise significantly above 2 percent this year. However, temporary factors will contribute significantly to this increase and therefore the inflation rate is expected to decline again in 2022. Finally, the pandemic is also leaving its mark on public budgets. Due to the pandemic-related additional expenditures and revenue shortfalls, the budget deficit this year will once again be well above 4 percent relative to GDP. In 2022, the deficit will probably decline significantly to 1.3 per cent. The debt level will then be just under 70 per cent again.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/236718
    Series: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 77 (2021/Q1)
    Subjects: business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook; Business Cycle Germany; Fiscal Policy & National Budgets; Labor Market
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. German economy autumn 2021
    protracted catching-up process
    Author: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The recovery of the German economy needs more time. Ongoing precautionary measures to protect against infection as well as the supply bottlenecks will slow down the catch-up process in the winter. Especially in those service sector that have been... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DSP 278
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The recovery of the German economy needs more time. Ongoing precautionary measures to protect against infection as well as the supply bottlenecks will slow down the catch-up process in the winter. Especially in those service sector that have been particularly affected by the pandemic the recovery is likely to slow down. Moreover, supply bottlenecks have increased noticeably and will probably only ease gradually. Once the economic burdens of the pandemic and the supply bottlenecks will have eased in the coming spring, the recovery will regain strength and economic activity will quickly return to normal. Overall, GDP will increase by 2.6 percent this year, making up only part of the losses of 2020 when it declined by 4.6 percent. The recovery will become fully visible in the 2022 growth rate of 5.1 percent. In 2023, GDP is also expected to increase markedly by 2.3 percent as some of the previously lost economic activity will still be made up for. The high inflation rate of 2.9 percent this year is largely due to temporary factors. However, they are likely to persist until next year and will lead to another strong increase in consumer prices before inflation moderates again in 2023. On the labour market, the negative impact of the pandemic will probably be overcome quickly and the unemployment rate will fall from 5.9 percent in 2020 to 5.1 percent in 2023. The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will also be reflected in the public budget. After an increase to about 5 percent relative to GDP this year, the public deficit is expected to fall to 0.7 percent in 2023 amid the phasing out of pandemic-related aid and the recovery of GDP.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246847
    Series: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 83 (2021/Q3)
    Subjects: business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook; COVID19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A thousand words tell more than just numbers
    financial crises and historical headlines
    Author: Ristolainen, Kim; Roukka, Tomi; Nyberg, Henri
    Published: November 2021
    Publisher:  Aboa Centre for Economics, Turku

    We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 753
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial ver and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. The new indicators capture common features that have often been discussed as potential causes of specific crises but which have not been incorporated into empirical models.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265187
    Series: Discussion paper / Aboa Centre for Economics ; no. 149
    Subjects: financial crisis; text data; leading indicators; topic model
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen