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Displaying results 1 to 9 of 9.

  1. In-depth review 2024
    Portugal
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Portugal's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 338
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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Portugal's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137901
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 285 (April 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; interest; Portugal
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  2. Implications of higher inflation and interest rates for macroprudential policy stance
    Author: Hempell, Hannah S.; Silva, Fatima; Scalone, Valerio; Borkó, Tamás; Cornacchia, Wanda; Di Virgilio, Domenica; Espic, Aurélien; Garcia, Salomón; Heires, Marcel; Herrera, Luis; Kärkkäinen, Samu; Kent, Luke; Kerbl, Stefan; Löhe, Sebastian; Oliveira, Vitor; Palligkinis, Spyros; Segura, Anatoli; Steikūnė, Paulina
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    In recent years, monetary policy and inflation considerations have been playing an increasingly important role for macroprudential authorities in their policy setting. This paper aims to assess the implications of high inflation and rising interest... more

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    DS 535
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    In recent years, monetary policy and inflation considerations have been playing an increasingly important role for macroprudential authorities in their policy setting. This paper aims to assess the implications of high inflation and rising interest rates for macroprudential policy stance. The conceptual discussions and model-based analyses included in this paper reflect on the appropriate direction and impact of macroprudential policies at the different stages of financial and business cycles, given cross-country and banking system heterogeneities. In this context, a key objective of the paper is to assess to what extent the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies differs, given the heterogeneity across euro area countries exposed to a homogenous monetary policy. While both policies are to a large extent complementary, monetary policy may generate relevant spillovers due to its impact on the financial cycle and, potentially, on financial stability. The paper argues that the recent focus of macroprudential policy on resilience, when banking sector conditions ensure no unwarranted procyclical effects of macroprudential tightening, suggests an expansion of the notion of "complementarity" with monetary policy. Specifically, with the build-up of resilience, macroprudential policy acts de facto countercyclically, supporting monetary policy in its pursuit of price stability. In this regard, the paper stresses that the source of the inflationary shock (supply versus demand side) and the monetary environment primarily affect the intensity, speed and extent of buffer build-up or release within each stage of the financial cycle while affecting borrower-based measures in their bindingness.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289968744
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/306600
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 358
    Subjects: banks; macroprudential policy; capital buffers; borrower-based measures; Financial stability; monetary policy; financial risk; bank; interest; inflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Investment decisions in a high-inflation environment
    Author: Schito, Marco; Klimavičiūtė, Luka; Pál, Rozália
    Published: August 2024
    Publisher:  European Investment Bank, Luxembourg

    Does increasing inflation affect firms' investment decisions? This article employs the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (EIBIS) dataset to explore the association between the increased inflation that the EU countries have experienced since... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 429
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    Does increasing inflation affect firms' investment decisions? This article employs the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (EIBIS) dataset to explore the association between the increased inflation that the EU countries have experienced since 2021, and firms' investment decisions. We find evidence that very high rates of inflation (over 20%) are associated with higher probabilities of investment, likely driven by measures to improve energy efficiency (particularly for SMEs) and a desire to avoid the devaluation of cash reserves (for large firms). We further find a positive association between SMEs' ability to pass costs onto consumers (the so-called pass-through rate) and investment decision, suggesting a higher degree of reliance on the generation of continuous revenues for investment purposes compared with large firms. Inflation's by-products (increased interest rates, difficulties in accessing external financing, increasing uncertainty) are found to be important negative factors in investment decisions. (146 words)

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789286158025
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/301874
    Series: Economics - working papers ; 2024, 03
    Subjects: EIBIS; cost pass-through rate; financial tightening; SMEs; inflation; investment; small and medium-sized enterprises; corporate finance; interest; price of energy; EU Member State
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. IFRS 9 overlays and model improvements for novel risks
    identifying best practices for capturing novel risks in loan loss provisions
    Published: July 2024
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    In recent years, banks have constantly faced new risks that need to be assessed. The COVID-19 pandemic itself revealed that health risks and related restrictions can threaten the solvency of borrowers. After this threat was managed with the help of... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    In recent years, banks have constantly faced new risks that need to be assessed. The COVID-19 pandemic itself revealed that health risks and related restrictions can threaten the solvency of borrowers. After this threat was managed with the help of public support, a stream of other novel risks emerged, like energy supply, geopolitical stability, high interest rates, inflation, and climate change. And since the list of such novel risks is unlikely to be exhaustive, it is only reasonable to expect further surprises. This new risk environment poses a significant challenge to banking supervisors, who draw on a traditional supervisory framework largely reliant on historical data series. But such data series lack scope for dealing with risks looming large on the horizon. For this reason, ECB Banking Supervision places a particular focus on supervisory tools and regulations offering a forward-looking perspective. If properly applied, they allow banks to prepare for and cushion against those risks. One of the areas the ECB is looking into is expected loan loss provisioning under IFRS 9. The accounting requirements are principle-based and require comprehensive consideration of forward-looking information. The resulting provisions impact prudential capital ratios, so adequate accounting provisions for novel risks also act as a prudential safeguard should these risks materialise. While the ECB is not an accounting supervisor, it has been granted a prudential mandate to challenge and influence banks' provisioning practices when there is a particular prudential concern about adequate risk coverage. The topic of IFRS 9 provisioning was also mentioned in the ECB's supervisory priorities for 2022-2024.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289968225
    Other identifier:
    Subjects: financial risk; risk management; loan; banking supervision; financial solvency; financial aid; public authorities; energy supply; inflation; geopolitics; interest; climate change; financial supervision; European Central Bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  5. Convergence report
    2024
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The 2024 Convergence Report covers the following six Member States with a derogation: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden. The staff working document accompanying this report provides a more detailed assessment of the state of... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 338
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    The 2024 Convergence Report covers the following six Member States with a derogation: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden. The staff working document accompanying this report provides a more detailed assessment of the state of convergence in these Member States. Article 140(1) TFEU requires the reports to include an examination of the compatibility of national legislation, including the statutes of national central banks, with Articles 130 and 131 TFEU and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank ('the ESCB/ECB Statute'). The reports must also examine whether a high degree of sustainable convergence has been achieved in the Member State concerned by reference to the fulfilment of the four convergence criteria (price stability, public finances, exchange rate stability and long-term interest rates), and by taking account of other factors relevant to economic integration and convergence mentioned in the final subparagraph of Article 140(1) TFEU. The four convergence criteria are developed further in a protocol annexed to the Treaties (Protocol No 13 on the convergence criteria).

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268169650
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    Parent title: Convergence report - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 294 (June 2024)
    Subjects: economic convergence; convergence criteria; economic growth; inflation; public finance; exchange rate; interest; monetary policy; international trade; Treaty on the Functioning of the EU; euro area; price of energy; economic stabilisation; stability pact; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 176 Seiten)
  6. Aggregate uncertainty, HANK, and the ZLB
    Author: Lin, Alessandro; Peruffo, Marcel
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a novel methodology for solving Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) models with aggregate uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Our efficient solution strategy combines the sequence-state Jacobian... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We propose a novel methodology for solving Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) models with aggregate uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Our efficient solution strategy combines the sequence-state Jacobian methodology in Auclert et al. (2021) with a tractable structure for aggregate uncertainty by means of a two-regimes shock structure. We apply the method to a simple HANK model to show that: 1) in the presence of aggregate non-linearities such as the ZLB, a dichotomy emerges between the aggregate impulse responses under aggregate uncertainty against the deterministic case; 2) aggregate uncertainty amplifies downturns at the ZLB, and household heterogeneity increases the strength of this amplification; 3) the effects of forward guidance are stronger when there is aggregate uncertainty.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289963916
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297351
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2911
    Subjects: New-Keynesian Models; Liquidity Traps; Zero Lower Bound; Computational Methods; Monetary Policy; economic model; macroeconomics; economic analysis; interest
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. As interest rates surge
    flighty deposits and lending
    Author: Cappelletti, Giuseppe; Marqués Ibáñez, David; Reghezza, Alessio; Salleo, Carmelo
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks' loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 534
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks' loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes all bank-firm lending relationships in all euro area countries. We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders. This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers. The effect is mostly driven by banks coming into the hiking period with a larger unhedged duration gap that renders borrowers of those banks more vulnerable to credit restrictions due to the deposit outflows as interest rates surge. We resort to the deposit beta as an instrument variable and a matched estimator that bear out the thrust of our results.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964036
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297363
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2923
    Subjects: Banks; Bank deposits; Monetary policy; bank deposit; loan; interest; bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Euro25
    where has the euro area been? : where does it go from here? : in-depth analysis requested by the ECON committee
    Author: Siklos, Pierre L.
    Published: February 2024
    Publisher:  European Parliament, Brussels

    When it comes to the euro, policy makers should not follow the expression: "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". A review of the first 25 years of the euro suggests that mistakes were made. Yet, the ECB has also been remarkably adaptable under difficult... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    When it comes to the euro, policy makers should not follow the expression: "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". A review of the first 25 years of the euro suggests that mistakes were made. Yet, the ECB has also been remarkably adaptable under difficult circumstances. Improvements to the resilience of the euro area are possible. This paper looks back over an eventful quarter century and offer a peak into the euro area's possible future challenges. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 February 2024.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789284815432
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    Series: Monetary dialogue papers ; February 2024
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Inflationsbekämpfung; Zentralbank; Führungsorganisation; EU-Staaten; monetary policy; European Central Bank; economic stabilisation; interest; economic recession; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  9. Deposit market concentration and monetary transmission
    evidence from the euro area
    Author: Kho, Stephen
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    I study the transmission of monetary policy to deposit rates in the euro area with a focus on asymmetries and the role of banking sector concentration. Using a local projections framework with 2003-2023 country-level and bank-level data for thirteen... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 534
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    I study the transmission of monetary policy to deposit rates in the euro area with a focus on asymmetries and the role of banking sector concentration. Using a local projections framework with 2003-2023 country-level and bank-level data for thirteen euro area member states, I find that deposit rates respond symmetrically to an unexpected tightening or easing of monetary policy. However, more concentrated domestic banking sectors do pass-on unexpected monetary tightening (easing) more slowly (quickly) than less concentrated banking sectors, which contributes to a temporary divergence of deposit rates across the euro area. These results suggest that heterogeneity in the degree of banking sector concentration matters for the transmission of monetary policy to deposit rates, which in turn may affect banking sector profitability.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289963763
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297336
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2896
    Subjects: deposit rates; banking sector; market power; Monetary policy; interest; financial market; banking policy; bank deposit; market economy; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen