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  1. The rollout of COVID-19 booster vaccines is associated with rising excess mortality in New Zealand
    Author: Gibson, John K.
    Published: June 2022
    Publisher:  University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand

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    Series: Working paper in economics / [University of Waikato] ; 22, 11
    Subjects: COVID-19; excess mortality; instrumental variables; vaccines; New Zealand
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Abadie's kappa and weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect
    Author: Słoczyński, Tymon; Uysal, Selver Derya; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)'s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous... more

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    In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)'s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous explanatory variable ("treatment") and a binary instrumental variable, which may only be valid after conditioning on additional covariates. We argue that one of the Abadie estimators, which we show is weight normalized, is likely to dominate the others in many contexts. A notable exception is in settings with one-sided noncompliance, where certain unnormalized estimators have the advantage of being based on a denominator that is bounded away from zero. We use a simulation study and three empirical applications to illustrate our findings. In applications to causal effects of college education using the college proximity instrument (Card, 1995) and causal effects of childbearing using the sibling sex composition instrument (Angrist and Evans, 1998), the unnormalized estimates are clearly unreasonable, with "incorrect" signs, magnitudes, or both. Overall, our results suggest that (i) the relative performance of different kappa weighting estimators varies with features of the data-generating process; and that (ii) the normalized version of Tan (2006)'s estimator may be an attractive alternative in many contexts. Applied researchers with access to a binary instrumental variable should also consider covariate balancing or doubly robust estimators of the LATE.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15241
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Simulation; instrumental variables; local average treatment effects; one-sided noncompliance; weighting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Abadie's kappa and weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect
    Author: Słoczyński, Tymon; Uysal, Selver Derya; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)’s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous... more

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    In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)’s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous explanatory variable (“treatment”) and a binary instrumental variable, which may only be valid after conditioning on additional covariates. We argue that one of the Abadie estimators, which we show is weight normalized, is likely to dominate the others in many contexts. A notable exception is in settings with one-sided noncompliance, where certain unnormalized estimators have the advantage of being based on a denominator that is bounded away from zero. We use a simulation study and three empirical applications to illustrate our findings. In applications to causal effects of college education using the college proximity instrument (Card, 1995) and causal effects of childbearing using the sibling sex composition instrument (Angrist and Evans, 1998), the unnormalized estimates are clearly unreasonable, with “incorrect” signs, magnitudes, or both. Overall, our results suggest that (i) the relative performance of different kappa weighting estimators varies with features of the data-generating process; and that (ii) the normalized version of Tan (2006)’s estimator may be an attractive alternative in many contexts. Applied researchers with access to a binary instrumental variable should also consider covariate balancing or doubly robust estimators of the LATE.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9715 (2022)
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Simulation; instrumental variables; local average treatment effects; one-sided noncompliance; weighting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Clustered local average treatment effects
    fields of study and academic student progress
    Author: Nibbering, Didier; Oosterveen, Matthijs; Silva, Pedro Luis
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Multiple unordered treatments with a binary instrument for each treatment are common in policy evaluation. This multiple treatment setting allows for different types of changes in treatment status that are non-compliant with the activated instrument.... more

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    Multiple unordered treatments with a binary instrument for each treatment are common in policy evaluation. This multiple treatment setting allows for different types of changes in treatment status that are non-compliant with the activated instrument. Therefore, instrumental variable (IV) methods have to rely on strong assumptions on the subjects' behavior to identify local average treatment effects (LATEs). This paper introduces a new IV strategy that identifies an interpretable weighted average of LATEs under relaxed assumptions, in the presence of clusters with similar treatments. The clustered LATEs allow for shifts across treatment clusters that are consistent with preference updating, but render IV estimation of individual LATEs biased. The clustered LATEs are estimated by standard IV methods, and we provide an algorithm that estimates the treatment clusters. We empirically analyze the effect of fields of study on academic student progress, and find violations of the LATE assumptions in line with preference updating, clusters with similar fields, treatment effect heterogeneity across students, and significant differences in student progress due to fields of study.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15159
    Subjects: multiple treatments; instrumental variables; treatment clusters; field of study
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Too healthy to fall sick?
    longevity expectations and protective health behaviours during the first wave of Covid-19
    Author: Celidoni, Martina; Costa-Font, Joan; Salmasi, Luca
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Longevity expectations (LE) are subjective assessments of future health status that can influence a number of individual health protective decisions. This is especially true during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as the risk of ill health depends more... more

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    Longevity expectations (LE) are subjective assessments of future health status that can influence a number of individual health protective decisions. This is especially true during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as the risk of ill health depends more than ever on such protective decisions. This paper exploits differences in LE to examine the causal effect of LE on protective health behaviours and a number of decisions around access to health care, using data from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We draw on an instrumental variable strategy exploiting individual level information on parental age at death. Consistent with the too healthy to be sick hypothesis, we find that individuals with higher expected longevity are more likely to engage in protective behaviours, and are less likely to forgo medical treatment. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in expected longevity increases the probability to comply always with social distancing by 0.6%, to meet people less often by 0.4% and decreases the probability to forgo any medical treatment by 0.6%. Our estimates vary depending on the availability of health care, as well as individuals' gender and pre-existing health conditions.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9899 (2022)
    Subjects: longevity expectations; private information; health behaviours; forgone medical treatment; health capital; SHARE; Europe; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Returns to education in Greece
    evidence from the 1977 labor market survey using the Greek civil war as an instrument
    Author: Patrinos, Harry Anthony
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling,... more

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    Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling, showing that for those affected by the civil war, the returns to schooling are higher than the corresponding least squares estimate.

     
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    Series: GLO discussion paper ; no. 1161
    Subjects: Returns to education; instrumental variables; civil war; Greece
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 8 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Novel shift-share instruments and their applications
    Author: Ferri, Benjamin
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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    Series: Boston College working papers in economics ; 1053
    Subjects: shift-share; bartik; instrumental variables; panel data; labor demand and supply; earnings inequality; single parenting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  8. Instrumental variable quantile regression for clustered data
    Author: Besstremyannaya, Galina; Golovan, Sergei
    Published: June 2022
    Publisher:  National Research University, Higher School of Economic, [Moscow]

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    Series: Array ; 255/EC/2022
    Subjects: quantile regression; endogeneity; clustered data; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Trust, violence, and coca
    Author: Rubio-Ramos, Melissa
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    How does violence affect social capital? I argue that its impact depends on two factors: i) the ability to identify the perpetrating group, and ii) the intensity of the violence. These factors help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory effects of... more

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    How does violence affect social capital? I argue that its impact depends on two factors: i) the ability to identify the perpetrating group, and ii) the intensity of the violence. These factors help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory effects of violence on social capital presented in the literature. I study this question in the context of Colombia by exploiting changes in violence attributed to cross-border shocks on coca markets in neighboring countries interacted with a novel index of suitability for coca cultivation. This index uses satellite data from ecological conditions for growing coca. I document that violence has a negative effect on social capital measures such as trust, participation in community organizations, and cooperation. Notably, this effect is stronger when it is not possible to identify the enemy. The results are robust to a large number of controls that account for potential confounders. In particular, I show evidence that this effect is not related to the presence of drug cartels in Colombia during the Escobar and Cali era.

     
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    Series: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 176
    Subjects: Causal effects of violence; social capital; coca production; instrumental variables; Colombia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Housing returns and intertemporal substitution in consumption
    estimates for industrial economies
    Author: Pozzi, Lorenzo
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    This paper uses housing returns to estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) in consumption for fifteen advanced economies over the postwar period 1950 − 2015. As housing is the main asset for the majority of households, returns on... more

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    This paper uses housing returns to estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) in consumption for fifteen advanced economies over the postwar period 1950 − 2015. As housing is the main asset for the majority of households, returns on housing are better suited to estimate the EIS than the asset returns typically considered in the literature, i.e., equity and bill returns. An estimable regression equation for aggregate consumption growth and returns is obtained from the aggregation of the consumption Euler equations of heterogeneous agents. As the regression equation includes unobserved omitted variables, we use instrumental variables estimation. We exploit both the temporal and spatial dimensions of the panel by instrumenting the domestic return using its own lag and a cross-country average of foreign returns. Both instruments are strong and allow to test the overidentifying restriction. The restriction holds once we control for common international growth and financial factors in the regression equation. We report a baseline elasticity estimate of about 0.21. This is substantially larger than the elasticities estimated from equity and bill returns which, in line with the extant literature, are found not to be significantly different from zero.

     
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    Series: Array ; TI 2022, 044
    Subjects: consumption; intertemporal substitution; housing returns; panel data; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  11. A robust test for weak instruments with multiple endogenous regressors
    Author: Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    We extend the popular bias-based test of Stock and Yogo (2005) for instrument strength in linear instrumental variables regressions with multiple endogenous regressors to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Equivalently, we extend... more

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    We extend the popular bias-based test of Stock and Yogo (2005) for instrument strength in linear instrumental variables regressions with multiple endogenous regressors to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Equivalently, we extend the robust test of Montiel Olea and Pflueger (2013) for one endogenous regressor to the general case with multiple endogenous regressors. We describe a simple procedure for applied researchers to conduct our generalized first-stage test of instrument strength and provide efficient and easy-to-use Matlab code for its implementation. We demonstrate our testing procedures by considering the estimation of the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy as in Ramey and Zubairy (2018).

     
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    Series: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 1020 (June 2022)
    Subjects: instrumental variables; weak instruments test; multiple endogenous regressors; heteroskedasticity; serial correlation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Modified instruments: an iterative process for reducing endogeneity bias using large samples
    Author: Ronderos Pulido, Nicolás
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Departamento de Economía, Bogotá

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    Series: Vniversitas económica / Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Departamento de Economía ; vol. 22, no. 2 (marzo de 2022)
    Subjects: instrumental variables; bias correction
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Constrained conditional moment restriction models
    Author: Chernozhukov, Victor; Newey, Whitney K.; Santos, Andres
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper we provide a general procedure for inference under shape... more

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    Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper we provide a general procedure for inference under shape restrictions in identified and partially identified models defined by conditional moment restrictions. Our test statistics and proposed inference methods are based on the minimum of the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective function with and without shape restrictions. Uniformly valid critical values are obtained through a bootstrap procedure that approximates a subset of the true local parameter space. In an empirical analysis of the effect of childbearing on female labor supply, we show that employing shape restrictions in linear instrumental variables (IV) models can lead to shorter confidence regions for both local and average treatment effects. Other applications we discuss include inference for the variability of quantile IV treatment effects and for bounds on average equivalent variation in a demand model with general heterogeneity. We find in Monte Carlo examples that the critical values are conservatively accurate and that tests about objects of interest have good power relative to unrestricted GMM.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272826
    Edition: This Draft: April 2022
    Series: Cemmap working paper ; CWP22, 14
    Subjects: Momentenmethode; IV-Schätzung; Partielle Identifikation; Monte-Carlo-Simulation; Kausalanalyse; Fertilität; Weibliche Arbeitskräfte; Shape restrictions; inference on functionals; conditional moment (in)equality restrictions; instrumental variables; nonparametric and semiparametric models; Banach space; Banach lattice; Koltchinskii coupling
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 216 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme
    Author: González-Pampillón, Nicolás; Nunez-Chaim, Gonzalo; Overman, Henry G.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Series: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1865 (July 2022)
    Subjects: consumption subsidy; covid-19; instrumental variables; footfall; job posts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Estimating the laffer tax rate on capital income
    cross-base responses matter!
    Author: Lefebvre, Marie-Noëlle; Lehmann, Etienne; Sicsic, Michaël
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We theoretically express the Laffer tax rate on capital income as a function of the elasticities of capital income (the "direct" elasticity) and of labor income (the "cross" elasticity) with respect to the net-of-tax rate on capital income. We... more

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    We theoretically express the Laffer tax rate on capital income as a function of the elasticities of capital income (the "direct" elasticity) and of labor income (the "cross" elasticity) with respect to the net-of-tax rate on capital income. We estimate these elasticities using salient capital tax reforms that took place in France between 2008 and 2017. Graphical evidence and Instrumental variables (IV) estimates confirm the existence of significant responses of both capital and labor income to capital tax reforms. Both approaches lead to positive cross responses, in contrast to the prediction of income-shifting models but in line with the two-period "working and saving" model. Cross responses are, however, about ten times lower than direct ones. We obtain a direct elasticity around 0.5 which is robust across specifications. Ignoring the cross elasticity leads to a Laffer rate around 68%. However, since labor incomes are much larger than capital incomes, the Laffer tax rate is especially sensitive to the cross elasticity. Using our estimated positive cross elasticity dramatically reduces the Laffer tax rate on capital income to around 57%, taking only income tax on labor income into account, and down to 35% when we also take payroll taxes into account.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9879 (2022)
    Subjects: capital income taxation; optimal tax; Laffer tax rate; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Too healthy to fall sick?
    longevity expectations and protective health behaviours during the first wave of COVID-19
    Author: Celidoni, Martina; Costa-Font, Joan; Salmasi, Luca
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Longevity expectations (LE) are subjective assessments of future health status that can influence a number of individual health protective decisions. This is especially true during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as the risk of ill health depends more... more

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    Longevity expectations (LE) are subjective assessments of future health status that can influence a number of individual health protective decisions. This is especially true during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as the risk of ill health depends more than ever on such protective decisions. This paper exploits differences in LE to examine the causal effect of LE on protective health behaviours and a number of decisions around access to health care, using data from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We draw on an instrumental variable strategy exploiting individual level information on parental age at death. Consistent with the too healthy to be sick hypothesis, we find that individuals with higher expected longevity are more likely to engage in protective behaviours, and are less likely to forgo medical treatment. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in expected longevity increases the probability to comply always with social distancing by 0.6%, to meet people less often by 0.4% and decreases the probability to forgo any medical treatment by 0.6%. Our estimates vary depending on the availability of health care, as well as individuals' gender and pre-existing health conditions.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15493
    Subjects: longevity expectations; private information; health behaviours; forgone medical treatment; health capital; SHARE; Europe; instrumental variables; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The crime effect of refugees
    Author: Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Mocan, Naci; Tumen, Semih; Turan, Belgi
    Published: May 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We analyze the impact on crime of 3.7 million refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors' offices in 81 provinces of the... more

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    We analyze the impact on crime of 3.7 million refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors' offices in 81 provinces of the country each year, and utilizing the staggered movement of refugees across provinces over time, we estimate instrumental variables models that address potential endogeneity of the number of refugees and their location, and find that an increase in the number of refugees leads to more crime. We estimate that the influx of refugees between 2012 and 2016 generated additional 75,000 to 150,000 crimes per year, although it is not possible to identify the distribution of these crimes between refugees and natives. Additional analyses reveal that low-educated native population has a separate, but smaller, effect on crime. We also highlight the pitfalls of employing incorrect empirical procedures and using poor proxies of criminal activity which produce the wrong inference about the refugee-crime relationship. Our results underline the need to quickly strengthen the social safety systems, to take actions to dampen the impact on the labor market, and to provide support to the criminal justice system in order to mitigate the repercussions of massive influx of individuals into a country, and to counter the social and political backlash that typically emerges in the wake of such large-scale population movements.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263551
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15335
    Subjects: Flüchtlinge; Bürgerkrieg; Syrisch; Soziale Folgen; IV-Schätzung; Kriminalitätsökonomik; Türkei; refugees; crime; instrumental variables; measurement of crime
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 95 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Doubly robust estimation of local average treatment effects using inverse probability weighted regression adjustment
    Author: Słoczyński, Tymon; Uysal, Selver Derya; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Published: November 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably exogenous or to... more

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    We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably exogenous or to improve precision. Unlike previous approaches, our doubly robust (DR) estimation procedures use quasi-likelihood methods weighted by the inverse of the IV propensity score - so-called inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimators. By properly choosing models for the propensity score and outcome models, fitted values are ensured to be in the logical range determined by the response variable, producing DR estimators of LATE and LATT with appealing small sample properties. Inference is relatively straightforward both analytically and using the nonparametric bootstrap. Our DR LATE and DR LATT estimators work well in simulations. We also propose a DR version of the Hausman test that can be used to assess the unconfoundedness assumption through a comparison of different estimates of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under one-sided noncompliance. Unlike the usual test that compares OLS and IV estimates, this procedure is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity.

     
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    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/267337
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10105 (2022)
    Subjects: double robustness; instrumental variables; local average treatment effects; one-sided noncompliance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)
  19. Doubly robust estimation of local average treatment effects using inverse probability weighted regression adjustment
    Author: Słoczyński, Tymon; Uysal, Selver Derya; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Published: November 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably exogenous or to... more

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    We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably exogenous or to improve precision. Unlike previous approaches, our doubly robust (DR) estimation procedures use quasi-likelihood methods weighted by the inverse of the IV propensity score - so-called inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimators. By properly choosing models for the propensity score and out-come models, fitted values are ensured to be in the logical range determined by the response variable, producing DR estimators of LATE and LATT with appealing small sample properties. Inference is relatively straightforward both analytically and using the nonparametric bootstrap. Our DR LATE and DR LATT estimators work well in simulations. We also propose a DR version of the Hausman test that can be used to assess the unconfoundedness assumption through a comparison of different estimates of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under one-sided noncompliance. Unlike the usual test that compares OLS and IV estimates, this procedure is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267464
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15727
    Subjects: double robustness; instrumental variables; local average treatment effects; one-sided noncompliance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)
  20. IV methods for Tobit models
    Author: Chesher, Andrew; Kim, Dongwoo; Rosen, Adam M.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    This paper studies models of processes generating censored outcomes with endogenous explanatory variables and instrumental variable restrictions. Tobit-type left censoring at zero is the primary focus in the exposition. Extension to stochastic... more

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    This paper studies models of processes generating censored outcomes with endogenous explanatory variables and instrumental variable restrictions. Tobit-type left censoring at zero is the primary focus in the exposition. Extension to stochastic censoring is sketched. The models do not specify the process determining endogenous explanatory variables and they do not embody restrictions justifying control function approaches. Consequently, they can be partially or point identifying. Identified sets are characterized and it is shown how inference can be performed on scalar functions of partially identified parameters when exogenous variables have rich support. In an application using data on UK household tobacco expenditures inference is conducted on the co-efficient of an endogenous total expenditure variable with and without a Gaussian distributional restriction on the unobservable and compared with the results obtained using a point identifying complete triangular model.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272828
    Series: Cemmap working paper ; CWP22, 16
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Tobit-Modell; Partielle Identifikation; Schätztheorie; Tabakwaren; Privater Konsum; Großbritannien; censored outcomes; endogeneity; incomplete models; instrumental variables; partial identiÖcation; stochastic censoring
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten)
  21. Returns to education in Greece
    evidence from the 1977 labor market survey using the Greek civil war as an instrument
    Author: Patrinos, Harry Anthony
    Published: August 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling,... more

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    Greece experienced a devastating civil war in 1946-1949. This led to many deaths, economic losses, and severe reductions in schooling expenditures and attendance. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the 1977 returns to schooling, showing that for those affected by the civil war, the returns to schooling are higher than the corresponding least squares estimate.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265762
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15541
    Subjects: returns to education; instrumental variables; civil war; Greece
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 9 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Dynamic identification using system projections and instrumental variables
    Author: Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel
    Published: 29 March 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Series: Array ; DP17153
    Subjects: Structural equations; instrumental variables; Impulse Responses; Robust inference,Phillips curve; inflation dynamics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Oferta de escolas e retorno do ensino médio entre os jovens no Brasil
    Author: Franca, Maíra Penna; Machado, Danielle Carusi; Corseuil, Carlos Henrique
    Published: outubro de 2022
    Publisher:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    Schooling attendance improved significantly in Brazil, mainly for primary schooling. Attendance levels however are still deficient at secondary level; where dropout levels also worries policy makers. This paper aims to estimate the wage premium for... more

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    Schooling attendance improved significantly in Brazil, mainly for primary schooling. Attendance levels however are still deficient at secondary level; where dropout levels also worries policy makers. This paper aims to estimate the wage premium for secondary education attained by young workers aged 20 to 24 in Brazil; as this could potentially lead to low levels of interest for attending secondary schools. We take into account the endogeneity of education in the wage equation, by employing a set of instruments that capture the supply density of schools in the municipality when the young worker was 15 years old; considered as the entry age for secondary school. The return estimates obtained by the method of instrumental variables ranged from 11% to 20%. The results also indicate that measures of school supply have a positive and significant relationship with the probability of a young person having completed high school.

     
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    Language: Portuguese
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/284860
    Series: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2804
    Subjects: economic returns; high school education; instrumental variables; human capital
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. On track to success?
    returns to vocational education against different alternatives
    Author: Matthewes, Sönke Hendrik; Ventura, Guglielmo
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Universität Potsdam, Potsdam

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    Series: CEPA discussion papers ; no. 58 (November 2022)
    Subjects: instrumental variables; multi-valued treatment; returns to education; vocational education
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (70 Seiten, 3740 KB), Illustratioen
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    Many countries consider expanding vocational curricula in secondary education to boost skills and labour market outcomes among non-university-bound students. However, critics fear this could divert other students from more profitable academic education. We study labour market returns to vocational education in England, where until recently students chose between a vocational track, an academic track and quitting education at age 16. Identification is challenging because self-selection is strong and because students’ next-best alternatives are unknown. Against this back- drop, we leverage multiple instrumental variables to estimate margin-specific treatment effects, i.e., causal returns to vocational education for students at the margin with academic education and, separately, for students at the margin with quitting education. Identification comes from variation in distance to the nearest vocational provider conditional on distance to the nearest academic provider (and vice-versa), while controlling for granular student, school and neighbourhood characteristics. The analysis is based on population-wide administrative education data linked to tax records. We find that the vast majority of marginal vocational students are indifferent be- tween vocational and academic education. For them, vocational enrolment substantially decreases earnings at age 30. This earnings penalty grows with age and is due to wages, not employment. However, consistent with comparative advantage, the penalty is smaller for students with higher revealed preferences for the vocational track. For the few students at the margin with no further education, we find merely tentative evidence of increased employment and earnings from vocational enrolment
  25. Labor supply responses to income taxation among older couples
    evidence from a Canadian reform
    Author: Messacar, Derek
    Published: November 2022
    Publisher:  Retirement and Savings Institute, [Montréal]

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    Series: Working paper / Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne, HEC Montréal ; no. 10
    Subjects: Elasticity of taxable income; tax avoidance; unitary model; collective model; schmeduling; empirical density design; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen