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  1. The Russian economy amidst the war and sanctions
    Author: Astrov, Vasily; Kochnev, Artem; Stamer, Vincent; Teti, Feodora
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    The marked turnaround in Russia's foreign trade in 2023 exerted strong downward pressure on the Russian rouble, which lost around 30% of its value. Global oil prices were declining in the first half of the year, the EU import embargo on Russian oil... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 873
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    The marked turnaround in Russia's foreign trade in 2023 exerted strong downward pressure on the Russian rouble, which lost around 30% of its value. Global oil prices were declining in the first half of the year, the EU import embargo on Russian oil depressed prices even further; and on top of all that, Russia lost a large slice of what has historically been its main gas market - the EU. In response to a weakening rouble, the central bank has tightened policy markedly, although inflationary pressures have remained high so far. Otherwise, the economy continues its recovery on the back of domestic demand, driven in large part by (war-related) fiscal stimulus - officially estimated at around 10% of GDP in 2022-2023. Official data suggest that capacity utilisation has reached very high levels, the labour market is extremely tight, and unemployment has plunged to an all-time low. With no end in sight to the war, the current growth trajectory will likely continue for some time, despite the fact that the economy is suffering from increased labour shortages and is falling behind on the technological front, due to the Western sanctions.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/303471
    Series: Russia monitor / wiiw ; 1 (January 2024)
    Subjects: Russia; economic growth; labour market; monetary policy; fiscal policy; foreign trade; inflation; exchange rate; econometric modelling
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    The present report was prepared on 4 October 2023 as the outcome of research cooperation between the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw, coordinator), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (ifo) and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action
  2. Are Western trade sanctions effective?
    Author: Astrov, Vasily; Teti, Feodora; Scheckenhofer, Lisa; Semelet, Camille
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    Recent high-frequency data suggest a further strengthening of growth momentum, driven by the ongoing tightness of the labour market and the muted response of credit expansion to last year’s monetary policy tightening. At the same time, the short- and... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 873
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Recent high-frequency data suggest a further strengthening of growth momentum, driven by the ongoing tightness of the labour market and the muted response of credit expansion to last year’s monetary policy tightening. At the same time, the short- and medium-term fiscal outlook has brightened – despite increased military and social spending. On the external front, imports picked up at the end of 2023, but have suffered more recently due to increased payment difficulties – a result of renewed US pressure on banks from third countries dealing with Russia. The effectiveness of trade sanctions crucially hinges on the degree to which missing high-quality Western goods can be replaced with lower-quality products from third countries. Our calculations suggest that in 2023, the share of sanctioned CHP items that Russia was able to obtain ranged from 60% to 170% of the 2021 level, depending on underlying assumptions regarding the extent of the deterioration in quality.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/303476
    Series: Russia monitor / wiiw ; 6 (September 2024)
    Subjects: economic growth; fiscal situation; foreign trade; sanctions; unit value ratios
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Global value chains and equilibrium exchange rate
    evidence from central European economies
    Author: Kuziemska-Pawlak, Kamila; Mućk, Jakub
    Published: March 2024
    Publisher:  Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, [Warsaw]

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    VS 595
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 20.500.12182/1260
    Series: Collegium of Economic Analysis working paper series ; number: 100 (2024)
    Subjects: exchange rate; current account; foreign trade; Global Value Chains
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Hospodársky vývoj Slovenska v roku 2023
    zaostrené na: po búrke smerom k stabilite (?)
    Author: Morvay, Karol
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Ekonomický ústav SAV, v.v.i., Bratislava

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    Nicht speichern
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Czech
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Pracovné listy EÚ SAV ; 118
    Subjects: economic growth; macroeconomic indicators; labour market; inflation; public spendings; foreign trade; direct foreign investments; convergence; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 126 Seiten)
  5. High-priority battlefield items and television sets
    how sanctions reduced Russians' access to goods
    Author: Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
    Published: 27 February 2024
    Publisher:  BOFIT, the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, Helsinki

    We examine Russian imports since a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on exports to Russia. As Russia no longer publishes detailed statistics on foreign trade, we rely on export data from its largest trading partners (mirror statistics). We are... more

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    Signature:
    DS 686
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    We examine Russian imports since a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on exports to Russia. As Russia no longer publishes detailed statistics on foreign trade, we rely on export data from its largest trading partners (mirror statistics). We are particularly interested in trade diversion, i.e. the extent to which Russian imports have shifted from sanctioning countries to other countries. Our analysis is based on monthly export data and focuses on technology goods (HS codes 84 and 85) utilizing a difference-in-difference approach. Our dataset covers exports to Russia at the HS6-level of disaggregation from 26 sanctioning and 14 non-sanctioning countries during 2018-2023. We find that the exports of sanctioning countries to Russia fell drastically overall, with exports of sanctioned goods declining more than average exports. On the other hand, the export of sanctioned goods to Russia by non-sanctioning countries have risen more than their overall exports, indicating that Russia has managed to replace some goods no longer available from sanctioning countries, but not all of them.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283904
    Series: BOFIT discussion papers ; 2024, 3
    Subjects: Russia; sanctions; foreign trade
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen