Skip to main navigation Skip to main content
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Last searches

Results for *

Displaying results 1 to 5 of 5.

  1. Overfitting in judgment-based economic forecasts
    the case of IMF growth projections
    Author: Hellwig, Klaus-Peter
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
    Signature:
    Online
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    e-Book Nationallizenz
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    LZ 142
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
    Signature:
    E-Book International Monetary Fund
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
    Signature:
    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
  2. On the comparison of interval forecasts
    Author: Askanazi, Ross; Diebold, Francis X.; Schorfheide, Frank; Shin, Minchul
    Published: August 2, 2018
    Publisher:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    Keine Speicherung
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: PIER working paper ; 18, 013
    Subjects: Forecast accuracy; forecast evaluation; prediction
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  3. Combining multivariate volatility forecasts using weighted losses
    Author: Clements, Adam; Doolan, M. B.
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  [National Centre for Econometric Research], [Brisbane]

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 762
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: [NCER working paper series ; [#119]
    Subjects: Multivariate volatility; combination forecasts; forecast evaluation; model confidence set
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Overfitting in judgment-based economic forecasts
    the case of IMF growth projections
    Author: Hellwig, Klaus-Peter
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
  5. Germany's boom is maturing
    Author: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Potjagailo, Galina
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  [Kiel Institute for the World Economy], [Kiel]

    The economic upswing in Germany continues, although the expansion loses some steam. Compared to our summer forecast, we reduced our expectations for GDP growth by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points in the current and next year, respectively, to 1.9... more

    Access:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DSP 278
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The economic upswing in Germany continues, although the expansion loses some steam. Compared to our summer forecast, we reduced our expectations for GDP growth by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points in the current and next year, respectively, to 1.9 percent (2018) and 2.0 percent (2019). So for now, the boom in Germany persists. However, due to the already very high capacity utilization in many sectors, companies face increasing difficulties in continuing to expand their production at a brisk pace. This is especially palpable in the construction sector where in the face of very favorable circumstances production increases were quite restrained but prices rose markedly. The labor market also exhibits increasing shortages. Not least due to this, increases in employment should reduce over time. Next year, the expansionary fiscal policy will support the boom. The extensive tax reductions and spending increases will raise disposable incomes considerably, such that private consumption expenditures should grow by 2.2 percent —the fastest in 20 years. Because of the robust world economy after the phase of weakness at the beginning of the year, exports should also accelerate again. The additional temporary revenue of public authorities due to the current business cycle position is spent hand over fist on expenditures that are intended to persist in the long-run. The currently still sizeable structural budget surplus will therefore be eradicated by the year 2020.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/209505
    Series: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr.47 (2018/Q3)
    Subjects: business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook; forecast evaluation; investment income
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten), Illustrationen