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  1. Is there still son preference in the United States?
    Author: Blau, Francine D.; Kahn, Lawrence M.; Brummund, Peter; Cook, Jason; Larson-Koester, Miriam
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In this paper, we use 2008-2013 American Community Survey data to update and further probe evidence on son preference in the United States. In light of the substantial increase in immigration, we examine this question separately for natives and... more

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    In this paper, we use 2008-2013 American Community Survey data to update and further probe evidence on son preference in the United States. In light of the substantial increase in immigration, we examine this question separately for natives and immigrants. Dahl and Moretti (2008) found earlier evidence consistent with son preference in that having a female first child raised fertility and increased the probability that the family was living without a father. We find that for our more recent period, having a female first child still raises the likelihood of living without a father, but is instead associated with lower fertility, particularly for natives. Thus, by the 2008-2013 period, any apparent son preference in fertility decisions appears to have been outweighed by factors such as cost concerns in raising girls or increased female bargaining power. In contrast, some evidence for son preference in fertility persists among immigrants. Immigrant families that have a female first child have significantly higher fertility and are more likely to be living without a father (though not significantly so). Further, gender inequity in source countries is associated with son preference in fertility among immigrants. For both first and second generation immigrants, the impact of a female first-born on fertility is more pronounced for immigrants from source countries with less gender equity. Finally, we find no evidence of sex selection for the general population of natives and immigrants, suggesting that it does not provide an alternative mechanism to account for the disappearance of a positive fertility effect for natives.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/214950
    Edition: Revised, October 2019
    Series: Array ; no. 7948 (November 2019)
    Subjects: gender; son preference; family structure; fertility; sex selection; immigrants
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Double trouble
    the burden of child rearing and working on maternal mortality
    Author: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Farbmacher, Helmut; Guber, Raphael; Vikström, Johan
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  mea - Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, Munich

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: MEA discussion papers ; 2019, 03
    Subjects: mortality; maternal health; fertility; twins
    Scope: 32 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  3. Cash transfers and fertility
    how the introduction and cancellation of a child benefit affected births and abortions
    Author: González, Libertad; Trommlerová, Sofia
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Series: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 1153
    Subjects: fertility; abortions; birth rates; policy evaluation; child benefit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Education, fertility and childlessness in Indonesia
    Author: Talancé, Marine de
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles en lien avec la théorie économique, [Marne-la-Vallée]

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    Series: Series of ERUDITE working papers ; no 2019, 15
    Subjects: Education; childlessness; fertility; labor market; marriage; Indonesia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Prussia disaggregated: the demography of its universe of localities in 1871
    Author: Becker, Sascha O.; Cinnirella, Francesco
    Published: April 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village,... more

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    We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216505
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13193
    Subjects: religion; segregation; literacy; fertility; Prussia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Cognitive skills, strategic sophistication, and life outcomes
    Author: Fe, Eduardo; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes. In particular, we emphasize the importance of childhood theory-of-mind as a cognitive skill. We collected experimental data from more than seven hundred... more

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    We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes. In particular, we emphasize the importance of childhood theory-of-mind as a cognitive skill. We collected experimental data from more than seven hundred children in a variety of strategic interactions. First, we find that theory-of-mind ability and cognitive ability both predict level-k behavior. Second, older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent, which provides support for the emergence of a sophisticated strategic theory-of-mind. Third, theory-of-mind and age strongly predict whether children respond to intentions in a gift-exchange game, while cognitive ability has no influence, suggesting that different measures of cognitive skill correspond to different cognitive processes in strategic situations that involve understanding intentions. Using the ALSPAC birth-cohort study, we find that childhood theory-of-mind and cognitive ability are both associated with enhanced adult social skills, higher educational participation, better educational attainment, and lower fertility in young adulthood. Finally, we provide evidence that school spending improves theory-of-mind in childhood.

     
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    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232653
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13901
    Subjects: cognitive skills; theory-of-mind; cognitive ability; fluid intelligence; children; experiment; strategic sophistication; level-k; bounded rationality; non-equilibrium thinking; intentions; gift-exchange game; competitive game; strategic game; ALSPAC; social skills; adult outcomes; life outcomes; education; fertility; labor market; wages; employment; school spending; childhood intervention
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 118 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes
    Author: Daysal, N. Meltem; Lovenheim, Michael F.; Siersbæk, Nikolaj; Wasser, David N.
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to... more

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    We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to $12,000), the likelihood of giving birth increases by 0.27 percentage points or 2.32%. These estimates are similar to findings from the US per dollar of home price change, which is surprising given the strong pro-natalist policies and generous government programs in Denmark. We also present the first estimates of the effect of home prices on infant health. Our findings indicate that housing price increases lead to better child health at birth in terms of low birth weight and prematurity, however most of these effects reflect changes in the composition of births. There is no evidence of an effect on health during the first five years of life. These findings are consistent with a lack of credit constraints among homeowner families and with both children and child health being normal goods that are similarly-valued in the US and Denmark.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223859
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13417
    Subjects: housing wealth; fertility; child health; birth outcomes
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Childlessness, childfreeness and compensation
    Author: Leroux, Marie-Louise; Pestieau, Pierre; Ponthière, Grégory
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Paris School of Economics, Paris

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    Series: Working paper / Paris School of Economics ; no 2019, 66
    Subjects: fertility; childlessness; family policy; compensation; fairness
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  9. Peer effects and fertility preferences in China
    evidence from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey
    Author: Nie, Peng; Wang, Lu; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Despite empirical evidence that individuals form their fertility preferences by observing social norms and interactions in their environments, the exact impact of these peer effects remains unclear. We thus use data from the 2014 and 2016 China... more

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    Despite empirical evidence that individuals form their fertility preferences by observing social norms and interactions in their environments, the exact impact of these peer effects remains unclear. We thus use data from the 2014 and 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to investigate the association between community-level peer effects and fertility preferences among Chinese women aged 18-49. Whereas our baseline results indicate that 11.96% of these women would prefer 1 or no children, 74.1% would like 2 children, and 13.93% would prefer 3 or more children. A one unit increase in community-level peer fertility reduces the preference of wanting only one child by 14.3%, whereas it increases the probability of preferring three children by 9.3% and four or more children by 4.8%. Hence, overall, we find a relatively strong peer effect on individual fertility preferences in communities characterized by generally low fertility rates, which provides support for the role of social norms in the fertility choices of reproductive-aged Chinese women.

     
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/223890
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13448
    Subjects: peer effects; fertility; fertility preferences; China
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Economic development and the motherhood wage penalty
    Author: Agüero, Jorge M.; Marks, Mindy; Raykar, Neha
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, Storrs, CT

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    Series: Department of Economics working paper series / University of Connecticut ; 2020, 06
    Subjects: Female earnings; family size; family penalty; fertility; economic development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Women's employment and fertility in a global perspective (1960-2015)
    Author: Behrman, Julia; Gonalons-Pons, Pilar
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Population Studies Center, [Philadelphia, PA]

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    Series: Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC) / Population Studies Center ; 2020, 53
    Subjects: employment; fertility; reproductive health; global; gender; families
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The effect of fertility on female labor supply in a labor market with extensive informality
    Author: Tumen, Semih; Turan, Belgi
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper presents new evidence on the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We particularly focus on how informal employment affects post-fertility labor supply behavior of mothers. We employ an instrumental variable... more

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    This paper presents new evidence on the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We particularly focus on how informal employment affects post-fertility labor supply behavior of mothers. We employ an instrumental variable strategy based on an unused data source for twin births in Turkey - a large developing economy with extensive labor informality. We find that fertility causally affects female labor supply. After the first twin birth, female labor supply declines significantly and the ones who drop out of the labor force are mostly the informally employed women. Following further increases in family size introduced by multiple second and third births (i.e., unanticipated increase from 1 kid to 3 kids, and from 2 kids to 4 kids), formally employed females start dropping out of the labor force and hours of work decline. Wages and job search intensity also decline for females as fertility increases. We also investigate the impact of fertility on labor supply of fathers. Unlike females, males increase their labor supply, which mostly comes from the increase in informal employment - possibly due to a decline in reservation wages. Accordingly, wages decline, hours of work increase, and job search activity shifts from formal to informal search methods for males. Overall, these results suggest that informally employed women tend to quickly drop out of the labor force after giving birth. Fathers, on the other hand, become more likely to accept inferior, low-pay, and informal job offers as fertility goes up. The results are robust to using alternative IV specifications based on sex composition of children.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232738
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13986
    Subjects: fertility; labor supply; twin births; informal employment; job search; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Is son preference disappearing from Bangladesh?
    Author: Asadullah, Mohammad Niaz; Mansoor, Nazia; Randazzo, Teresa; Wahhaj, Zaki
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show,... more

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    Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show, using data from a purposefully designed nationally representative survey for Bangladesh, that among women of childbearing age, son bias in stated fertility preferences has weakened and there is an emerging preference for gender balance. We examine a number of different hypotheses for the decline in son preference, including the increasing availability of female employment in the manufacturing sector, increased female education, and the decline of joint family living. Using survival analysis, we show that in contrast to stated fertility preferences, actual fertility decisions are still shaped by son preference.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232748
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13996
    Subjects: fertility; gender bias; birth spacing; female employment; Bangladesh
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Sterilization policy with incomplete information: Peru 1995-2000
    Author: Rendón, Sílvio
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this research I investigate what percentage of female sterilizations performed in Peru from 1993 to 2000 were done providing adequate information to their users for a free decision about their adoption. I use data from ENDES/DHS 2000, which... more

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    In this research I investigate what percentage of female sterilizations performed in Peru from 1993 to 2000 were done providing adequate information to their users for a free decision about their adoption. I use data from ENDES/DHS 2000, which contains detailed information about contraceptive methods adopted in those years, with especial emphasis on sterilizations. I make a descriptive analysis, a projection of total sterilizations, and an estimation of the probability that a woman be sterilized. I find a large use of sterilizations as a contraceptive method between 1995 and 1997: more than 36% of women that used a contraceptive method were sterilized. I also find that a large percentage of women were not adequately informed about sterilizations: only 35% of sterilized women was given complete information, that is, that they will have no more children, about side effects, what to do about them, and that there were alternative contraceptive methods. With additional data from MINSA I calculate that 211,000 sterilized women did not receive complete information from 1993 to 2000, of which 25,000 sterilized women did not receive information that the sterilization implied not being able to have more children. I also estimated that not receiving complete information increased the probability that a women is sterilized in 10 percentage points.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232611
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13859
    Subjects: health policy; fertility; sterilization; family planning; development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  15. Sterilization policy with incomplete information in Peru: does history repeat itself?
    Author: Jimènez, Bruno; Rendón, Sílvio
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We contrast the socio-demographic profiles and degree of information received by women that were sterilized with women that used other contraceptive methods. We use data from the 2016 round of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Peru and... more

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    We contrast the socio-demographic profiles and degree of information received by women that were sterilized with women that used other contraceptive methods. We use data from the 2016 round of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Peru and compare these profiles with those of the 2000s, which contain the effects of the massive non-voluntary sterilizations executed in Peru in the late 1990s. From 2000 to 2016 there is a reduction from 17% to 10% in the use of sterilization as a contraceptive method. There is also an important socio-demographic change in the incidence of sterilization, from women who are indigenous, from the highlands, and without electricity toward women who are non-indigenous, literate, coastal and who have electricity at home. There is not only no improvement in the information received by users of contraceptive methods with respect to the 1990s, but there is even a worsening: the percentage of sterilized women that received complete information dropped from 35% in 2000 to 34% in 2016. Moreover, the information provided for sterilizations continues to be poorer than for other, non-terminal, methods. We also estimate that providing incomplete information about the sterilization procedure increases the probability of sterilization in 7 percent points.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232615
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13863
    Subjects: health policy; fertility; sterilization; family planning; development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Academic careers and fertility decisions
    Author: De Paola, Maria; Nisticò, Roberto; Scoppa, Vincenzo
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We investigate how academic promotions affect the propensity of women to have a child. We use administrative data on the universe of female assistant professors employed in Italian universities from 2001 to 2018. We estimate a model with individual... more

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    We investigate how academic promotions affect the propensity of women to have a child. We use administrative data on the universe of female assistant professors employed in Italian universities from 2001 to 2018. We estimate a model with individual fixed effects and find that promotion to associate professor increases the probability of having a child by 0.6 percentage points, which translates into an increase by 12.5% of the mean. This result is robust to employing a Regression Discontinuity Design in which we exploit the eligibility requirements in terms of research productivity introduced since 2012 by the Italian National Scientific Qualification (NSQ) as an instrument for qualification (and therefore promotion) to associate professor. Our finding provides important policy implications in that reducing uncertainty on career prospects may lead to an increase in fertility.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232792
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14040
    Subjects: fertility; promotion; academic career; career uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. School starting age, maternal age at birth, and child outcomes
    Author: Fredriksson, Peter; Huttunen, Kristiina; Öckert, Björn
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper analyses the effects of maternal school starting age and maternal age-at-birth on children's short and long-term outcomes using Finnish register data. We exploit a school-starting-age rule for identification. Mothers who are born after the... more

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    This paper analyses the effects of maternal school starting age and maternal age-at-birth on children's short and long-term outcomes using Finnish register data. We exploit a school-starting-age rule for identification. Mothers who are born after the school entry cut-off give birth at higher age, but total fertility and earnings are unaffected. Being born after the cut-off reduces gestation and, hence, child birth weight. The effects on birth weight and gestation are rather small, however, suggesting that the long-run impacts are limited. Accordingly, we find no impacts on longer-term child outcomes, such as educational attainment and adolescent crime rates. Overall, we interpret this evidence as saying that there are no favorable effects of maternal age at birth on child outcomes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232808
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14056
    Subjects: school starting age; fertility; maternal age; birth outcomes; education; crime
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. COVID-19 and the future of US fertility: what can we learn from Google?
    Author: Wilde, Joshua; Chen, Wei; Lohmann, Sophie
    Published: October 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany ; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

    We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are... more

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    We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are associated with higher numbers of births in the following months. Excess searches for unemployment keywords have the opposite effect. Second, by employing simple statistical learning techniques, we demonstrate that including information on keyword search volumes in prediction models significantly improves forecast accuracy over a number of cross-validation criteria. Third, we use data on Google searches during the COVID-19 pandemic to predict changes in aggregate fertility rates in the United States at the state level through February 2021. Our analysis suggests that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly US births will drop sharply by approximately 15%. For context, this would be a 50% larger decline than that following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and similar in magnitude to the declines following the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and the Great Depression. Finally, we find heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different types of mothers. Women with less than a college education, as well as Black or African American women, are predicted to have larger declines in fertility due to COVID-19. This finding is consistent with elevated caseloads of COVID-19 in low-income and minority neighborhoods, as well as with evidence suggesting larger economic impacts of the crisis among such households.

     
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    hdl: 10419/227303
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13776
    Subjects: COVID-19; google; fertility; prediction; statistical learning
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The effect of antimalarial campaigns on child mortality and fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Author: Wilde, Joshua; Apouey, Bénédicte H.; Coleman, Joseph; Picone, Gabriel A.
    Published: October 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub- Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a... more

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    We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub- Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to identify the causal effect of ITNs on mortality and fertility. We show that the ITN distribution campaigns reduced all-cause child mortality, but surprisingly increased total fertility rates in the short run in spite of reduced desire for children and increased contraceptive use. We explain this paradox in two ways. First, we show evidence for an unexpected increase in fecundity and sexual activity due to the better health environment after the ITN distribution. Second, we show evidence that the effect on fertility is positive only temporarily - lasting only 1-3 years after the beginning of the ITN distribution programs - and then becomes negative. Taken together, these results suggest the ITN distribution campaigns may have caused fertility to increase unexpectedly and temporarily, or that these increases may just be a tempo effect - changes in fertility timing which do not lead to increased completed fertility.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13777
    Subjects: Malaria; bed nets; child mortality; fertility; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. On the quantity and quality of girls fertility, parental investments, and mortality
    Author: Anukriti, S; Bhalotra, Sonia; Tam, Hiu
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies in India has led to a phenomenal increase in abortion of female fetuses. This paper examines the impacts of this on girl relative to boy mortality rates after birth, using data from 1973-2005.... more

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    The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies in India has led to a phenomenal increase in abortion of female fetuses. This paper examines the impacts of this on girl relative to boy mortality rates after birth, using data from 1973-2005. The analysis finds a narrowing of the gender gap in under-5 mortality rates, in line with surviving girls being more wanted. The estimates show that for every three aborted girls, one additional girl survives to age five. Investigation of the mechanisms finds a narrowing of gender gaps in parental investments in children, moderation of son-biased fertility stopping, and shrinking of the gap between actual and desired fertility. Heterogeneity in fertility responses suggests a shift in the distribution of girls toward lower socioeconomic status families. The findings have implications not only for counts of missing girls, but also for the later life outcomes of girls

     
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9390
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: abortion; child mortality; fertility; gender; health; India; missing girls; parental invest-ments; prenatal sex detection; sex-selection; ultrasound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Two-stage least squares random forests with an application to Angrist and Evans (1998)
    Author: Biewen, Martin; Kugler, Philipp
    Published: August 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We develop the case of two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) in the general framework of Athey et al. (Generalized Random Forests, Annals of Statistics, Vol. 47, 2019) and provide a software implementation for R and C++. We use the method to... more

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    We develop the case of two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) in the general framework of Athey et al. (Generalized Random Forests, Annals of Statistics, Vol. 47, 2019) and provide a software implementation for R and C++. We use the method to revisit the classic application of instrumental variables in Angrist and Evans (Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size, American Economic Review, Vol. 88, 1998). The two-stage least squares random forest allows one to investigate local heterogenous effects that cannot be investigated using ordinary 2SLS.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13613
    Subjects: machine learning; generalized random forests; fertility; instrumental variable estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The impact of the length of schooling on the timing of family formation
    Author: Koebe, Josefine; Marcus, Jan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    Individuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyse whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the... more

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    Individuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyse whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the introduction of short school years in Germany in 1966-67, which compressed the education phase without affecting the curriculum. Based on difference-in-differences regressions and German Micro Census data, we find that earlier graduation due to short school year exposure affects the timing of marriage for individuals in all secondary school tracks and shifts forward the birth of the first child mainly for academic-track graduates. This highlights that education policies might not only affect family formation through human capital accumulation, but also through changing the duration of earlier life phases. This is important as not only age at marriage and first birth increases in many countries, but also the duration of the education phase.

     
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    hdl: 10419/225025
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1896
    Subjects: family formation; instruction time; fertility; marriage
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. U.S. immigration policy and immigrant fertility
    Author: Amuedo Dorantes, Catalina; Arenas-Arroyo, Esther
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using the 2005-2014 waves of the American Community Survey - a period characterized by the rapid expansion of interior immigration enforcement initiatives across the United States, we evaluate the impact of a tougher policy environment on... more

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    Using the 2005-2014 waves of the American Community Survey - a period characterized by the rapid expansion of interior immigration enforcement initiatives across the United States, we evaluate the impact of a tougher policy environment on undocumented immigrants' fertility. We find that a one standard deviation increases in enforcement lowers childbearing among likely undocumented women by 5 percent. The effect emanates from police-based measures linked to increased deportations, which may raise uncertainty about the future of the family unit and its resources. Understanding these impacts is important given the critical contributions of immigrants and their offspring to diversity, the economy and the sustainability of the welfare state.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13748
    Subjects: fertility; immigration policy; interior immigration enforcement; undocumented immigrants; unauthorized immigrants; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Fertility changes and replacement migration
    Author: Aksoy, Yunus; Gylfi Zoega
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study OECD countries that differ in immigration policies but share a high level of human capital. We find significant negative statistical relationship between 16 years lagged fertility and the rate of immigration in a panel of 23 countries, which... more

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    We study OECD countries that differ in immigration policies but share a high level of human capital. We find significant negative statistical relationship between 16 years lagged fertility and the rate of immigration in a panel of 23 countries, which indicates that immigration compensates for low fertility in the labor market.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 8565 (2020)
    Subjects: fertility; replacement migration
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  25. Population aging and migration
    Author: Poutvaara, Panu
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment,... more

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    International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14389
    Subjects: international migration; population aging; demographic trends; fertility; immigrant workers
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen