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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 46.

  1. Pensions and fertility
    micro-economic evidence
    Author: Danzer, Alexander M.; Zyska, Lennard
    Published: March 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study,... more

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    This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216360
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13048
    Subjects: pension wealth; fertility; old-age security hypothesis; quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Short- and long-run effects of a sizable child subsidy
    evidence from Russia
    Author: Sorvachev, Ilia; Jakovlev, Evgenij
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed at increasing fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity... more

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    This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed at increasing fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity Capitals) in 2007 and 2012. We find that the Maternity Capital resulted in a significant increase in fertility both in the short run and in the long run, and has already resulted in an increase in completed fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy housing. We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing and with a higher ratio of subsidy to housing prices. We also find that the subsidy has a substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected the housing market and family stability. Finally, we show that this government intervention comes at a substantial cost: the government's willingness to pay for an additional birth induced by the program equals approximately 50,000 dollars.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216331
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13019
    Subjects: fertility; maternity capital; housing
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Pensions and fertility
    micro-economic evidence
    Author: Danzer, Alexander M.; Zyska, Lennard
    Published: March 2020
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study,... more

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    This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216569
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 8173 (2020)
    Subjects: pension wealth; fertility; old-age security hypothesis; quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Fertility decisions and employment protection
    the unintended consequences of the Italian Jobs Act
    Author: De Paola, Maria; Nisticò, Roberto; Scoppa, Vincenzo
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We study the effect of a reduction in employment protection on fertility decisions. Using data from the Italian Labor Force Survey for the years 2013-2018, we analyze how the propensity to have a child has been affected by the 2015 Labor Market... more

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    We study the effect of a reduction in employment protection on fertility decisions. Using data from the Italian Labor Force Survey for the years 2013-2018, we analyze how the propensity to have a child has been affected by the 2015 Labor Market Reform, the so-called "Jobs Act", which has essentially reduced the employment protection for large-firm employees and leaved largely unchanged that for small-firm ones. We employ a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy and compare the average change over time in fertility decisions of women employed in large firms with the average change experienced by women employed in small firms. We find that women exposed to the reduction in employment protection have a 1.4 percentage point lower probability of having a child than unexposed women. A battery of robustness checks confirms this finding. We document large heterogeneous effects by marital status, parity, geographic areas as well as by the level of education and wage. Our findings help understand the potential unintended consequences that reforms introducing more labor market flexibility have on fertility decisions by increasing insecurity on career prospects.

     
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    hdl: 10419/215387
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12991
    Subjects: Kündigungsschutz; Arbeitsmarktreform; Fertilität; Betriebsgröße; Differenz von Differenzen; Italien; fertility; employment protection legislation; labor market reform; difference-in-differences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertility
    Author: Eibich, Peter; Siedler, Thomas
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Retired parents might invest time into their adult children by providing childcare. Such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions. This paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on adult... more

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    Retired parents might invest time into their adult children by providing childcare. Such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions. This paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on adult children's fertility. We use representative panel data from Germany to link observations on parents and adult children. We exploit eligibility ages for early retirement for identification in a regression discontinuity design. The results show that parent's early retirement significantly increases the probability of childbirth for adult children. However, parental retirement affects only the timing of adult children's fertility, without having an effect on total fertility.

     
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    hdl: 10419/215389
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12993
    Subjects: retirement; fertility; intergenerational transfer; time use
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Health capital provision and human capital accumulation
    Author: Azarnert, Leonid V.
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This article analyzes the effect of public policy intervention in the production of health capital on fertility, private investment in children's health and education and human capital accumulation. I have used a growth model with endogenous... more

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    This article analyzes the effect of public policy intervention in the production of health capital on fertility, private investment in children's health and education and human capital accumulation. I have used a growth model with endogenous fertility, in which the usual parental trade-off between the quantity and quality of their children is augmented with an additional factor that affects children's human capital, which is health. I analyze the overall society-wide effect of public policy intervention and derive a condition that determines precisely whether public provision of free health services increases or decreases the average level of human capital in the society.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216512
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 8116 (2020)
    Subjects: Gesundheitskosten; Gesundheit; Bildungsinvestition; Humankapital; Fertilität; Gesundheitspolitik; fertility; health capital; human capital; growth
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  7. Cash transfers and fertility
    how the introduction and cancellation of a child benefit affected births and abortions
    Author: González, Libertad; Trommlerová, Sofia
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business, Barcelona

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    Series: Economics working paper series ; no. 1697
    Subjects: fertility; abortions; birth rates; policy evaluation; child benefit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Does health influence fertility?
    Author: Syse, Astri; Dommermuth, Lars; Hart, Rannveig K.
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo

    Poor health may constrain women's capacity for active leisure, including family life and childrearing, for participation in the labor market and potentially affect preferences. Still, health remains remarkably understudied as a fertility determinant.... more

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    Poor health may constrain women's capacity for active leisure, including family life and childrearing, for participation in the labor market and potentially affect preferences. Still, health remains remarkably understudied as a fertility determinant. We explore the association between health and fertility, using uptake of doctor-certified sickness absences and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. We examine whether compositional changes in health distributions and/or changes in the health-fertility association have contributed to the distinct fall in the total fertility rate in Norway since 2009. We use nationwide registry data on women aged 16-45 from 2004-2018. We analyse first, second and third births separately, and use annual observations with lagged time-varying covariates for education, sickness absence and long-term benefits. Income, employment and partnership status are also included in some subanalyses. Long-term benefit uptake is negatively associated with fertility, and the association weakens over time. In addition, such uptake is relatively rare, but increases slightly over time. The use of sickness absence is positively associated with fertility, and the association strengthens over time. Sickness absence uptake is common but decreases over time. It is thus unlikely that changes in women's health and/or changes in the health-fertility association can help explain the observed decline in fertility observed after 2009. However, if the decrease in sickness absence uptake reflects a stronger labor market preference among women in fertile ages, it might help explain parts of the observed decline. Overall, the decline in fertility is most pronounced for healthy women. Health as a fertility determinant warrants further research, from other countries and with other proxies for health.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249111
    Series: Discussion papers / Statistics Norway, Research Department ; no. 921
    Subjects: fertility; health; sick leave; TFR; total fertility rate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Cash transfers and fertility
    how the introduction and cancellation of a child benefit affected births and abortions
    Author: González, Libertad; Trommlerová, Sofia
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Series: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 1153
    Subjects: fertility; abortions; birth rates; policy evaluation; child benefit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Prussia disaggregated: the demography of its universe of localities in 1871
    Author: Becker, Sascha O.; Cinnirella, Francesco
    Published: April 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village,... more

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    We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216505
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13193
    Subjects: religion; segregation; literacy; fertility; Prussia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Cognitive skills, strategic sophistication, and life outcomes
    Author: Fe, Eduardo; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes. In particular, we emphasize the importance of childhood theory-of-mind as a cognitive skill. We collected experimental data from more than seven hundred... more

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    We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes. In particular, we emphasize the importance of childhood theory-of-mind as a cognitive skill. We collected experimental data from more than seven hundred children in a variety of strategic interactions. First, we find that theory-of-mind ability and cognitive ability both predict level-k behavior. Second, older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent, which provides support for the emergence of a sophisticated strategic theory-of-mind. Third, theory-of-mind and age strongly predict whether children respond to intentions in a gift-exchange game, while cognitive ability has no influence, suggesting that different measures of cognitive skill correspond to different cognitive processes in strategic situations that involve understanding intentions. Using the ALSPAC birth-cohort study, we find that childhood theory-of-mind and cognitive ability are both associated with enhanced adult social skills, higher educational participation, better educational attainment, and lower fertility in young adulthood. Finally, we provide evidence that school spending improves theory-of-mind in childhood.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232653
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13901
    Subjects: cognitive skills; theory-of-mind; cognitive ability; fluid intelligence; children; experiment; strategic sophistication; level-k; bounded rationality; non-equilibrium thinking; intentions; gift-exchange game; competitive game; strategic game; ALSPAC; social skills; adult outcomes; life outcomes; education; fertility; labor market; wages; employment; school spending; childhood intervention
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 118 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes
    Author: Daysal, N. Meltem; Lovenheim, Michael F.; Siersbæk, Nikolaj; Wasser, David N.
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to... more

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    We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to $12,000), the likelihood of giving birth increases by 0.27 percentage points or 2.32%. These estimates are similar to findings from the US per dollar of home price change, which is surprising given the strong pro-natalist policies and generous government programs in Denmark. We also present the first estimates of the effect of home prices on infant health. Our findings indicate that housing price increases lead to better child health at birth in terms of low birth weight and prematurity, however most of these effects reflect changes in the composition of births. There is no evidence of an effect on health during the first five years of life. These findings are consistent with a lack of credit constraints among homeowner families and with both children and child health being normal goods that are similarly-valued in the US and Denmark.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223859
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13417
    Subjects: housing wealth; fertility; child health; birth outcomes
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Peer effects and fertility preferences in China
    evidence from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey
    Author: Nie, Peng; Wang, Lu; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Despite empirical evidence that individuals form their fertility preferences by observing social norms and interactions in their environments, the exact impact of these peer effects remains unclear. We thus use data from the 2014 and 2016 China... more

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    Despite empirical evidence that individuals form their fertility preferences by observing social norms and interactions in their environments, the exact impact of these peer effects remains unclear. We thus use data from the 2014 and 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to investigate the association between community-level peer effects and fertility preferences among Chinese women aged 18-49. Whereas our baseline results indicate that 11.96% of these women would prefer 1 or no children, 74.1% would like 2 children, and 13.93% would prefer 3 or more children. A one unit increase in community-level peer fertility reduces the preference of wanting only one child by 14.3%, whereas it increases the probability of preferring three children by 9.3% and four or more children by 4.8%. Hence, overall, we find a relatively strong peer effect on individual fertility preferences in communities characterized by generally low fertility rates, which provides support for the role of social norms in the fertility choices of reproductive-aged Chinese women.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13448
    Subjects: peer effects; fertility; fertility preferences; China
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Economic development and the motherhood wage penalty
    Author: Agüero, Jorge M.; Marks, Mindy; Raykar, Neha
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, Storrs, CT

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    Series: Department of Economics working paper series / University of Connecticut ; 2020, 06
    Subjects: Female earnings; family size; family penalty; fertility; economic development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Women's employment and fertility in a global perspective (1960-2015)
    Author: Behrman, Julia; Gonalons-Pons, Pilar
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Population Studies Center, [Philadelphia, PA]

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    Series: Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC) / Population Studies Center ; 2020, 53
    Subjects: employment; fertility; reproductive health; global; gender; families
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The effect of fertility on female labor supply in a labor market with extensive informality
    Author: Tumen, Semih; Turan, Belgi
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper presents new evidence on the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We particularly focus on how informal employment affects post-fertility labor supply behavior of mothers. We employ an instrumental variable... more

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    This paper presents new evidence on the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We particularly focus on how informal employment affects post-fertility labor supply behavior of mothers. We employ an instrumental variable strategy based on an unused data source for twin births in Turkey - a large developing economy with extensive labor informality. We find that fertility causally affects female labor supply. After the first twin birth, female labor supply declines significantly and the ones who drop out of the labor force are mostly the informally employed women. Following further increases in family size introduced by multiple second and third births (i.e., unanticipated increase from 1 kid to 3 kids, and from 2 kids to 4 kids), formally employed females start dropping out of the labor force and hours of work decline. Wages and job search intensity also decline for females as fertility increases. We also investigate the impact of fertility on labor supply of fathers. Unlike females, males increase their labor supply, which mostly comes from the increase in informal employment - possibly due to a decline in reservation wages. Accordingly, wages decline, hours of work increase, and job search activity shifts from formal to informal search methods for males. Overall, these results suggest that informally employed women tend to quickly drop out of the labor force after giving birth. Fathers, on the other hand, become more likely to accept inferior, low-pay, and informal job offers as fertility goes up. The results are robust to using alternative IV specifications based on sex composition of children.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13986
    Subjects: fertility; labor supply; twin births; informal employment; job search; instrumental variables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Is son preference disappearing from Bangladesh?
    Author: Asadullah, Mohammad Niaz; Mansoor, Nazia; Randazzo, Teresa; Wahhaj, Zaki
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show,... more

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    Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show, using data from a purposefully designed nationally representative survey for Bangladesh, that among women of childbearing age, son bias in stated fertility preferences has weakened and there is an emerging preference for gender balance. We examine a number of different hypotheses for the decline in son preference, including the increasing availability of female employment in the manufacturing sector, increased female education, and the decline of joint family living. Using survival analysis, we show that in contrast to stated fertility preferences, actual fertility decisions are still shaped by son preference.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232748
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13996
    Subjects: fertility; gender bias; birth spacing; female employment; Bangladesh
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Sterilization policy with incomplete information: Peru 1995-2000
    Author: Rendón, Sílvio
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this research I investigate what percentage of female sterilizations performed in Peru from 1993 to 2000 were done providing adequate information to their users for a free decision about their adoption. I use data from ENDES/DHS 2000, which... more

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    In this research I investigate what percentage of female sterilizations performed in Peru from 1993 to 2000 were done providing adequate information to their users for a free decision about their adoption. I use data from ENDES/DHS 2000, which contains detailed information about contraceptive methods adopted in those years, with especial emphasis on sterilizations. I make a descriptive analysis, a projection of total sterilizations, and an estimation of the probability that a woman be sterilized. I find a large use of sterilizations as a contraceptive method between 1995 and 1997: more than 36% of women that used a contraceptive method were sterilized. I also find that a large percentage of women were not adequately informed about sterilizations: only 35% of sterilized women was given complete information, that is, that they will have no more children, about side effects, what to do about them, and that there were alternative contraceptive methods. With additional data from MINSA I calculate that 211,000 sterilized women did not receive complete information from 1993 to 2000, of which 25,000 sterilized women did not receive information that the sterilization implied not being able to have more children. I also estimated that not receiving complete information increased the probability that a women is sterilized in 10 percentage points.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232611
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13859
    Subjects: health policy; fertility; sterilization; family planning; development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  19. Sterilization policy with incomplete information in Peru: does history repeat itself?
    Author: Jimènez, Bruno; Rendón, Sílvio
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We contrast the socio-demographic profiles and degree of information received by women that were sterilized with women that used other contraceptive methods. We use data from the 2016 round of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Peru and... more

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    We contrast the socio-demographic profiles and degree of information received by women that were sterilized with women that used other contraceptive methods. We use data from the 2016 round of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Peru and compare these profiles with those of the 2000s, which contain the effects of the massive non-voluntary sterilizations executed in Peru in the late 1990s. From 2000 to 2016 there is a reduction from 17% to 10% in the use of sterilization as a contraceptive method. There is also an important socio-demographic change in the incidence of sterilization, from women who are indigenous, from the highlands, and without electricity toward women who are non-indigenous, literate, coastal and who have electricity at home. There is not only no improvement in the information received by users of contraceptive methods with respect to the 1990s, but there is even a worsening: the percentage of sterilized women that received complete information dropped from 35% in 2000 to 34% in 2016. Moreover, the information provided for sterilizations continues to be poorer than for other, non-terminal, methods. We also estimate that providing incomplete information about the sterilization procedure increases the probability of sterilization in 7 percent points.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13863
    Subjects: health policy; fertility; sterilization; family planning; development
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. COVID-19 and the future of US fertility: what can we learn from Google?
    Author: Wilde, Joshua; Chen, Wei; Lohmann, Sophie
    Published: October 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany ; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

    We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are... more

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    We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are associated with higher numbers of births in the following months. Excess searches for unemployment keywords have the opposite effect. Second, by employing simple statistical learning techniques, we demonstrate that including information on keyword search volumes in prediction models significantly improves forecast accuracy over a number of cross-validation criteria. Third, we use data on Google searches during the COVID-19 pandemic to predict changes in aggregate fertility rates in the United States at the state level through February 2021. Our analysis suggests that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly US births will drop sharply by approximately 15%. For context, this would be a 50% larger decline than that following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and similar in magnitude to the declines following the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and the Great Depression. Finally, we find heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different types of mothers. Women with less than a college education, as well as Black or African American women, are predicted to have larger declines in fertility due to COVID-19. This finding is consistent with elevated caseloads of COVID-19 in low-income and minority neighborhoods, as well as with evidence suggesting larger economic impacts of the crisis among such households.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13776
    Subjects: COVID-19; google; fertility; prediction; statistical learning
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The effect of antimalarial campaigns on child mortality and fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Author: Wilde, Joshua; Apouey, Bénédicte H.; Coleman, Joseph; Picone, Gabriel A.
    Published: October 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub- Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a... more

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    We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub- Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to identify the causal effect of ITNs on mortality and fertility. We show that the ITN distribution campaigns reduced all-cause child mortality, but surprisingly increased total fertility rates in the short run in spite of reduced desire for children and increased contraceptive use. We explain this paradox in two ways. First, we show evidence for an unexpected increase in fecundity and sexual activity due to the better health environment after the ITN distribution. Second, we show evidence that the effect on fertility is positive only temporarily - lasting only 1-3 years after the beginning of the ITN distribution programs - and then becomes negative. Taken together, these results suggest the ITN distribution campaigns may have caused fertility to increase unexpectedly and temporarily, or that these increases may just be a tempo effect - changes in fertility timing which do not lead to increased completed fertility.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13777
    Subjects: Malaria; bed nets; child mortality; fertility; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. On the quantity and quality of girls fertility, parental investments, and mortality
    Author: Anukriti, S; Bhalotra, Sonia; Tam, Hiu
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies in India has led to a phenomenal increase in abortion of female fetuses. This paper examines the impacts of this on girl relative to boy mortality rates after birth, using data from 1973-2005.... more

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    The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies in India has led to a phenomenal increase in abortion of female fetuses. This paper examines the impacts of this on girl relative to boy mortality rates after birth, using data from 1973-2005. The analysis finds a narrowing of the gender gap in under-5 mortality rates, in line with surviving girls being more wanted. The estimates show that for every three aborted girls, one additional girl survives to age five. Investigation of the mechanisms finds a narrowing of gender gaps in parental investments in children, moderation of son-biased fertility stopping, and shrinking of the gap between actual and desired fertility. Heterogeneity in fertility responses suggests a shift in the distribution of girls toward lower socioeconomic status families. The findings have implications not only for counts of missing girls, but also for the later life outcomes of girls

     
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9390
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: abortion; child mortality; fertility; gender; health; India; missing girls; parental invest-ments; prenatal sex detection; sex-selection; ultrasound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Two-stage least squares random forests with an application to Angrist and Evans (1998)
    Author: Biewen, Martin; Kugler, Philipp
    Published: August 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We develop the case of two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) in the general framework of Athey et al. (Generalized Random Forests, Annals of Statistics, Vol. 47, 2019) and provide a software implementation for R and C++. We use the method to... more

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    We develop the case of two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) in the general framework of Athey et al. (Generalized Random Forests, Annals of Statistics, Vol. 47, 2019) and provide a software implementation for R and C++. We use the method to revisit the classic application of instrumental variables in Angrist and Evans (Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size, American Economic Review, Vol. 88, 1998). The two-stage least squares random forest allows one to investigate local heterogenous effects that cannot be investigated using ordinary 2SLS.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13613
    Subjects: machine learning; generalized random forests; fertility; instrumental variable estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The impact of the length of schooling on the timing of family formation
    Author: Koebe, Josefine; Marcus, Jan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    Individuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyse whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the... more

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    Individuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyse whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the introduction of short school years in Germany in 1966-67, which compressed the education phase without affecting the curriculum. Based on difference-in-differences regressions and German Micro Census data, we find that earlier graduation due to short school year exposure affects the timing of marriage for individuals in all secondary school tracks and shifts forward the birth of the first child mainly for academic-track graduates. This highlights that education policies might not only affect family formation through human capital accumulation, but also through changing the duration of earlier life phases. This is important as not only age at marriage and first birth increases in many countries, but also the duration of the education phase.

     
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    hdl: 10419/225025
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1896
    Subjects: family formation; instruction time; fertility; marriage
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. U.S. immigration policy and immigrant fertility
    Author: Amuedo Dorantes, Catalina; Arenas-Arroyo, Esther
    Published: September 2020
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using the 2005-2014 waves of the American Community Survey - a period characterized by the rapid expansion of interior immigration enforcement initiatives across the United States, we evaluate the impact of a tougher policy environment on... more

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    Using the 2005-2014 waves of the American Community Survey - a period characterized by the rapid expansion of interior immigration enforcement initiatives across the United States, we evaluate the impact of a tougher policy environment on undocumented immigrants' fertility. We find that a one standard deviation increases in enforcement lowers childbearing among likely undocumented women by 5 percent. The effect emanates from police-based measures linked to increased deportations, which may raise uncertainty about the future of the family unit and its resources. Understanding these impacts is important given the critical contributions of immigrants and their offspring to diversity, the economy and the sustainability of the welfare state.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13748
    Subjects: fertility; immigration policy; interior immigration enforcement; undocumented immigrants; unauthorized immigrants; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen