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  1. European economic forecast
    2024, Spring
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The EU economy staged a comeback at the start of the year, following a prolonged period of stagnation. Though the growth rate of 0.3% estimated for the first quarter of 2024 is still below estimated potential, it exceeded expectations. Activity in... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The EU economy staged a comeback at the start of the year, following a prolonged period of stagnation. Though the growth rate of 0.3% estimated for the first quarter of 2024 is still below estimated potential, it exceeded expectations. Activity in the euro area expanded at the same pace, marking the end of the mild recession experienced in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, inflation across the EU cooled further in the first quarter. This Spring Forecast projects GDP growth in 2024 at 1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. This is a slight uptick from the Winter 2024 interim Forecast for the EU, but unchanged for the euro area. EU GDP growth is forecast to improve to 1.6% in 2025, a downward revision of 0.1 pps. from winter. In the euro area, GDP growth in 2025 is projected to be slightly lower, at 1.4% also marginally revised down. Importantly, almost all Member States are expected to return to growth in 2024. With economic expansion in the southern rim of the EU still outpacing growth in north and western Europe, economic convergence within the EU is set to progress further. On the 20th anniversary of the enlargement of the EU towards the east and the south, it is notable that, after almost stalling last year, economic convergence is also set to resume for the newer Member States. It is expected to continue at a sustained pace throughout the forecast horizon and beyond (see Special Issue 4.3.). HICP inflation is projected to continue declining over the forecast horizon. In the EU, it is now expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. In the euro area, it is forecast to fall from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is a downward revision compared to winter for both the EU and the euro area - especially for this year.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268138397
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    Parent title: European economic forecast - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 286 (May 2024)
    Subjects: economic situation; economic policy; euro area; European Union; economic forecasting; economic growth; economic fluctuation; gross domestic product; Russo-Ukrainian issue; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 232 Seiten)
  2. The ... ageing report
    2024, Economic and budgetary projections for the EU member states
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    To assess the long-term sustainability of public finances in the EU Member States, the ECOFIN Council mandated the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its comprehensive long-term budgetary projections by the summer of 2024. The update of the... more

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    To assess the long-term sustainability of public finances in the EU Member States, the ECOFIN Council mandated the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its comprehensive long-term budgetary projections by the summer of 2024. The update of the Ageing Report, a joint report by the EPC and the European Commission (DG ECFIN), should be based on new population projections by Eurostat. The report is prepared by the EPC's Ageing Working Group (AWG). It was first published in 2006 and has been updated every three years since then. The Ageing Report is a unique exercise in that it provides detailed economic and budgetary projections for the EU Member States and Norway up to 2070 based on common assumptions and methodologies. The report provides a vast set of comparable and internally consistent information for 28 countries. These give insight into the timing of population ageing, its economic implications and the associated budgetary challenges. Such pressures are already manifest in many countries and are expected to accelerate as large cohorts of baby boomers retire, life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates remain low from a historical point of view. Being a joint EPC-Commission product, the Ageing Report provides a shared assessment between the Member States and the Commission on how ageing costs might develop in the future, considering the latest information and legislated reforms. The projections are therefore a cornerstone of various surveillance processes at the EU level. They inform the coordination of economic policies, in particular under the European Semester, the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances and fiscal surveillance under the Stability and Growth Pact.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137802
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    Parent title: The ... ageing report - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 279 (April 2024)
    Subjects: population ageing; demography; population forecast; population growth; economic analysis; economic forecasting; government policy; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 358 Seiten)
  3. Debt sustainability monitor / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    2023
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The EU economy appears set for a delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflation. After subdued growth in 2023, the EU economy has entered 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected. Already towards the end of 2022, the economic... more

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    The EU economy appears set for a delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflation. After subdued growth in 2023, the EU economy has entered 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected. Already towards the end of 2022, the economic expansion came to an abrupt end and activity has since been broadly stagnating, against the background of falling household purchasing power, collapsing external demand, forceful monetary tightening and the partial withdrawal of fiscal support in 2023. Economic activity is expected to gradually accelerate in 2024. Headline inflation has declined faster than expected in 2023, largely driven by falling energy prices. As inflation has declined, real wage growth and a resilient labour market should support a pick-up in consumption. Despite falling profit margins, investment should benefit from a gradual easing of credit conditions and the continued implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. According to the Commission's 2024 winter forecast, the EU economy is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025. In the EU, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is projected to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042465
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    Parent title: Debt sustainability monitor / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 271 (March 2024)
    Subjects: sustainable development; sustainable finance; public finance; European Union; financial risk; tax system; inflation; economic policy; ship's passport; community resilience; economic forecasting; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 298 Seiten)
  4. European economic forecast
    2024, Winter
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This Winter interim Forecast lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. Economic activity in 2023 is now estimated to have expanded by only 0.5% in both the EU and the euro area.... more

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    This Winter interim Forecast lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. Economic activity in 2023 is now estimated to have expanded by only 0.5% in both the EU and the euro area. The growth outlook for 2024 is revised down to 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. In 2025, economic activity is still expected to expand by 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area. EU HICP inflation is forecast to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In the euro area, it is projected to decelerate from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and to 2.2% in 2025.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042434
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    Parent title: European economic forecast - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 268 (February 2024)
    Subjects: economic situation; economic policy; euro area; European Union; economic forecasting; economic growth; economic fluctuation; gross domestic product; climate change; Palestine question; EU Member State; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten)
  5. The single market and accountability
    awareness, assessment, and attribution of European internal-market governance in comparative perspective
    Author: Jacobs, Nicholas F.; Parsons, Craig; Moland, Martin
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    How much is the European Single Market accountable to its citizens? A mountain of commentary and scholarship implies the answer, "not much." "You cannot fall in love with the Single Market" is an often-repeated quote from its most famous architect,... more

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    How much is the European Single Market accountable to its citizens? A mountain of commentary and scholarship implies the answer, "not much." "You cannot fall in love with the Single Market" is an often-repeated quote from its most famous architect, Jacques Delors. He meant to underscore the technical, low-salience nature of the regulatory project to ensure the "four freedoms" of goods, services, persons and capital across Europe. Influential accounts of its development portray a "regulatory state" (Majone 1996) that undertook "integration by stealth" (Genschel & Jachtenfuchs 2016) behind a "veil of law" (Burley & Mattli 1993), partly thanks to public inattention amid a "permissive consensus" of diffuse Europeanism (Hooghe & Marks 2009). Some experts defend the result as acceptably democratic-noting that technical regulation is rarely subject to broad accountability even in the healthiest democracies (Moravcsik 2002)- but many more see the Single Market as the heart of an EU "democratic deficit." They worry about the combination of little-understood regulatory responsibilities with a culturally fragmented "demos," an unelected executive, and "constitutionalization" of EU law in treaties that are very difficult to amend (among many, Weiler 1998; Føllesdal & Hix 2002; Hix 2013). These concerns seem highly plausible, but empirical evaluation of accountability in the Single Market confronts many challenges. Two motivate this paper. First, any such evaluation starts by documenting the citizen attitudes to which Single Market governance might or might not be accountable, but that data is scarce. Regular public surveys like Eurobarometer pose few questions about the Single Market or its core issues of market openness. Second, given reasons to expect that even in the most democratic arena, citizens will be less aware and engaged with technical-regulatory issues, what baseline helps us judge an acceptable level of accountability in a complex, continent-wide single market?

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268139226
    Other identifier:
    Edition: 1st edition
    Series: Single market economics papers ; Working Paper 22
    Subjects: EU-Binnenmarkt; Rechenschaftspflicht; Glaubwürdigkeit; Vergleich; Meinungsforschung; USA; single market; domestic market; economic governance (EU); economic forecasting; comparative analysis; European Union
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten)
  6. In-depth review 2024
    The Netherlands
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of the Netherland's vulnerabilities related to high private debt levels and a large current account surplus, which has crossborder relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which... more

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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of the Netherland's vulnerabilities related to high private debt levels and a large current account surplus, which has crossborder relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Given the size of the Dutch economy and its interlinkages with the other EU Member States, these vulnerabilities have a cross-border relevance.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137758
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    Series: Array ; 274 (March 2024)
    Subjects: economic forecasting; macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; EU Member State; Netherlands; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  7. In-depth review 2024
    Romania
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Romania's vulnerabilities related to large government and external deficits, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 338
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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Romania's vulnerabilities related to large government and external deficits, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137765
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    Series: Array ; 275 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; wage cost; tax system; economic forecasting; Romania; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  8. In-depth review 2024
    Sweden
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Sweden's vulnerabilities related to the real estate market and high private debt and - possibly - newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 338
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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Sweden's vulnerabilities related to the real estate market and high private debt and - possibly - newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Sweden's economy contracted in 2023 due to rising interest rates and high inflation and is set to broadly stabilise in 2024. High inflation and the subsequent monetary policy tightening, combined with the prevalence of variable interest rates and high household debt, pushed down household consumption and housing construction. Housing construction in the rental sector also suffered from the stricter financial conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) companies. Overall investment is estimated to have decreased by 1.2% in 2023, driven by a decline in housing construction.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137789
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    Series: Array ; 277 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; energy policy; economic forecasting; Sweden; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  9. In-depth review 2024
    Cyprus
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review analyses the evolution of Cyprus's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 338
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    This in-depth review analyses the evolution of Cyprus's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified in previous years, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042489
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    Series: Array ; 273 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; labour market; monetary policy; debt; banking; economic forecasting; Cyprus; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  10. In-depth review 2024
    Spain
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Spain's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, which have cross-border relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 338
    Inter-library loan:
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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the evolution of Spain's vulnerabilities related to high private, government and external debt, which have cross-border relevance, and possibly newly emerging risks. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) published in November 2023, assesses the persistence or unwinding of the vulnerabilities identified last year, potential emerging risks, and relevant policy progress and policy options that could be considered for the future. Given the size of the Spanish economy and its interlinkages with the other EU Member States, these vulnerabilities have a cross-border relevance. The Spanish economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.5% in 2023 and is projected to continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than last year. The strong growth outturn posted in 2023 was underpinned by the very positive labour market developments and the pick-up of wages sustaining private consumption, as well as the positive contribution from net exports and public consumption. Real GDP growth is forecast to moderate in 2024 to 1.7%, according to the Commission's Winter 2024 Interim Forecast, due to the weaker economic situation in Spain's main trading partners and to the lagged impact of recent years' interest rate hikes on aggregate demand. Consumption and investment, driven respectively by further real purchasing power gains for households, and the continued implementation of Spain's Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), are set to be the main drivers of r economic expansion. GDP growth is expected to accelerate again in 2025, to 2.0%. Headline inflation decelerated to 3.4% in 2023, largely thanks to the continued drop in energy prices throughout the year. Underlying price pressures eased gradually in 2023, to 5.8% on average, as the pass-through of high energy prices to other items, especially food and services, showed signs of fading only from the last quarter of 2023 onwards. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is set to decline further this year, to 3.2% on average (with underlying inflation projected to be 3.3%), despite the upward pressure of the expected phasing out of most government measures implemented to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268042472
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    Series: Array ; 272 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; inflation; labour market; economic growth; economic forecasting; Spain; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  11. In-depth review 2024
    Slovakia
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the extent of Slovakia's vulnerabilities related to cost competitiveness, external accounts, house prices and household debt. Last year, an in-depth review was undertaken for Slovakia, and the Commission concluded... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 338
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    This in-depth review (IDR) analyses the extent of Slovakia's vulnerabilities related to cost competitiveness, external accounts, house prices and household debt. Last year, an in-depth review was undertaken for Slovakia, and the Commission concluded that Slovakia was not experiencing imbalances, as its vulnerabilities seemed overall contained in the near future and were expected to ease as economic conditions normalised. This year's IDR, which follows the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report (AMR)published in November 2023, again examines these, and any newly emerging vulnerabilities, and their implications.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268137772
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    Series: Array ; 276 (March 2024)
    Subjects: macroeconomics; euro area; loan; financial stability; financial supervision; household consumption; gross domestic product; inflation; competitiveness; economic independence; economic forecasting; Slovakia; report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  12. Exploring aspects of the state of competition in the EU
    final report
    Author: De Simone, Livia; Nava, Salvatore; Salomone, Elena; Aigner, Rafael Christian; Coates, James; Rancati, Luca; Walckiers, Alexis; Neto, Antonio; Pike, Chris; Beverelli, Cosimo; Camilli, Andrea; Colacurcio, Claudio; Cotignano, Giacomo; Zappia, Daniele; Ennis, Sean; Paetz, Stephan
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    There is growing evidence that over the past few decades competition across markets in the EU may have weakened: industry concentration and markups appear to have increased, while the gap between market leaders and followers seems to have widened and... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    There is growing evidence that over the past few decades competition across markets in the EU may have weakened: industry concentration and markups appear to have increased, while the gap between market leaders and followers seems to have widened and business dynamism seems to have declined. Against this background, this report investigates four important aspects of the state of competition in the EU. First, six sectoral cross-country price-concentration studies provide qualitative and, for mobile telecoms and airlines, empirical evidence that higher concentration seems to be associated with higher prices. Secondly, an analysis of the evolution of 'Global Superstars' (i.e. the most profitable of the world's largest firms) finds that their profit rates have increased significantly over the last 25 years, and that the distribution of profits has become more skewed. We also study how Global Superstars in the IT, pharma and consumer goods sectors are protected by barriers to entry. Thirdly, a survey of EU-based exporting firms suggests that effective domestic competition within the Single Market (i) is an important driver of their global export competitiveness (in particular effective competition in upstream goods markets) and (ii) is for a majority of respondents not constraining their scale in a way which would prevent them from being successful on global export markets. Finally, relying on own estimates of markups for 117,000 firms from 23 EU Member States and a general equilibrium macroeconomic model, we estimate based on three simulation scenarios that more effective competition across markets in the EU would likely contribute significantly to more investment, employment, productivity and increase GDP by more than 2% and 4% after 5 and 10 years respectively.

     
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  13. A portfolio perspective on euro area bank profitability using stress test data
    Author: Mirza, Harun; Salleo, Carmelo; Trachana, Zoe
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted... more

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    DS 535
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    This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries to assess the profitability of lending activities among euro area banks. Using banks' own projections under the adverse scenarios of the stress test exercises for a consistent sample of euro area banks, we aim to uncover the effect of severe macroeconomic and financial conditions on the profitability of the various portfolios. We investigate how many country portfolios switch from profitable to loss-making under adverse conditions and show that this number peaks in the 2018 stress test exercise, while the 2021 exercise yields the lowest overall profitability. Overall, around 30% of exposures become unprofitable under stress conditions across the latest two exercises (compared to 20% for the 2016 exercise), mostly concentrated in the nonfinancial corporations (NFC) segment and, to a lesser extent, in the financial and mortgage portfolios. We also show in a regression analysis that the yield curve is an important determinant of portfolio-level profitability in a stress test setting, while the unemployment rate seems to be relevant in determining portfolio switches and GDP growth seems to influence the change in profitability. The results also point to some portfolio heterogeneity.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964241
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/306585
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 356
    Subjects: Bank profitability; net interest income; cost of risk; stress testing; scenario analysis; portfolio analysis; euro area; economic forecasting; profitability; financial stress test; financial risk; economic analysis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Greece (Spring 2024), Greece, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The fourth post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 8 to 15 April 2024. It involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on aspects... more

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    The fourth post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 8 to 15 April 2024. It involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participate on aspects relating to its Early Warning System, and staff from the International Monetary Fund also participated. Economic activity is expected to pick up slightly, with growth continuing to exceed the long-term potential in 2024-2025. Greece registered 2% real GDP growth in 2023, well above the EU and euro area average of 0.4%. Output growth is expected to regain momentum, supported by accelerating investments and solid private consumption growth, reaching 2.2% and 2.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Following a period of stable inflation rates since mid-2023, inflation is expected to decrease at a moderate pace reaching 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Price pressures are set to ease only gradually due to still persistently high food inflation and solid wage growth fuelled by tightening labour market conditions and the recent minimum wage increase. Unemployment is projected to continue declining, although the improvements in the labour market are expected to be slowed by strong labour market segmentation. Despite a marked decrease in the current account deficit in 2023 to 6.3% of GDP, it remains high and is set to narrow only moderately in the coming years due to an expected increase in the import of capital goods amid stronger investment activity.

     
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  15. Post-programme surveillance report
    Portugal (Spring 2024), Portugal, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Staff from the European Commission (EC), in liaison with staff from the European Central Bank (ECB), undertook the nineteenth post-programme surveillance (PPS) mission to Portugal from 28 February to 1 March 2024. Staff from the European Stability... more

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    Staff from the European Commission (EC), in liaison with staff from the European Central Bank (ECB), undertook the nineteenth post-programme surveillance (PPS) mission to Portugal from 28 February to 1 March 2024. Staff from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) participated in the meetings on aspects related to the ESM's Early Warning System. IMF staff also participated in the meetings. Under PPS, the Commission carries out regular review missions to euro area Member States that have had a financial assistance programme. The objective of the PPS missions is to assess the economic, fiscal and financial situation to ensure the Member State maintains its capacity to service its debt. From mid-2011 until mid-2014 Portugal implemented an economic adjustment programme with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The overall financial package was agreed at EUR 78 billon. In June 2014, Portugal exited the programme. This report reflects information available and policy developments that have taken place until 30 April 2024. The macroeconomic and budgetary projections, including those underlying the debt sustainability analysis, are in line with the Commission 2024 spring forecast released on 15 May 2024 (with cut-off date 30 April 2024).

     
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  16. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Ireland (Spring 2024), Ireland, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The 20th post-programme surveillance (PPS) mission to Ireland took place from 11 to 14 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff... more

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    The 20th post-programme surveillance (PPS) mission to Ireland took place from 11 to 14 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to the ESM's Early Warning System. The Irish economy slowed following a period of robust growth, with the moderation being attributable to the weakening performance of some multinationals. Private consumption continued to grow in 2023 supported by strong employment growth. However, households faced challenges due to rising price levels, higher interest rates and declining real wages, moderating private consumption growth. Modified investment, which removes the volatile aircraft leasing and R&D intellectual property components, declined in 2023, primarily reflecting a technical base effect after the completion of strong one-off investments in recent years. Modified investment is expected to remain subdued in 2024 as a result of tight financial conditions and global uncertainties. Post-pandemic normalisation, global headwinds and sector-specific developments led to a fall in net exports in 2023. However, a recovery in the global trade outlook, along with recent large-scale investments are expected to bolster exports in the coming years. Ireland's real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and by 3.6% in 2025. Modified domestic demand, which better reflects Ireland's underlying domestic economic activity, is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. After significant easing in recent quarters, inflation is expected to stand at 1.9% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

     
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  17. Post-programme surveillance report
    Spain (Spring 2024), Spain, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The twenty-first Post-Programme Surveillance (PPS) mission to Spain took place on 18 and 19 March 2024. The meetings involved staff from the European Commission, in liaison with European Central Bank staff ( 3 ). The European Stability Mechanism... more

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    The twenty-first Post-Programme Surveillance (PPS) mission to Spain took place on 18 and 19 March 2024. The meetings involved staff from the European Commission, in liaison with European Central Bank staff ( 3 ). The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) participated on aspects related to the ESM's Early Warning System. The Spanish economy is projected to continue expanding in 2024, although at a slower pace than last year. According to the Commission's 2024 Spring Forecast, real GDP growth is projected to slow this year to 2.1% from 2.5% in 2023, mainly due to the weaker economic situation in Spain's main trading partners and to the lagged impact of previous years' interest rate hikes on aggregate demand. Overall, domestic demand is set to be the key driver of the economic expansion this year. The evolution of consumer spending is expected to be supported by still strong job creation and further real income gains. Meanwhile, investment growth is expected to rebound, underpinned by quicker implementation of the recovery and resilience plan (RRP) and the easing of financing conditions. Downside risks to the outlook relate to geopolitical uncertainty and growth in main trading partners being further weakened. Headline inflation is expected to continue to moderate in 2024 to 1.9%, following the strong deceleration experienced in 2023, when the decline in the overall price level was favoured by the sustained drop in energy prices throughout the year. Overall inflation is set to decline further in 2024 to 3.1% thanks to the expected gradual slowdown from core components, despite the upward pressure exerted by the phasing out of government measures rolled out to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

     
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  18. Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
    Cyprus (Spring 2024), Cyprus, ...
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The 16th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place in person from 19 to 22 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff... more

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    The 16th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place in person from 19 to 22 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to the ESM's Early Warning System. The macroeconomic outlook remains positive amidst geopolitical uncertainty. Following a moderation in 2023 to 2.5%, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8% and 2.9% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. At the same time, with a continued expected decline in the prices of energy and other commodities and impact from monetary policy restrictions, headline inflation is forecast to slow down to around 2% in the coming years. The labour market has been performing strongly, with employment increasing. Domestic demand is expected to remain the key growth driver, with private consumption profiting from abating inflation and partial wage indexation, and investment supported by several large projects. External demand for services is expected to continue increasing, albeit at a slower pace. The large current account deficit is set to narrow, but to remain around 11% of the GDP linked to continued projected deficits on the primary income account. The geopolitical developments have so far had only a limited impact on Cyprus, mainly through the inflation channel. Downside growth risks related to the persistent international uncertainty remain, together with some upside risks as companies and individuals from affected areas in the Middle East tend to relocate investments from those areas to safer destinations in the EU, including Cyprus.

     
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  19. European business cycle indicators
    2nd quarter (2024), Low consumer confidence and the economy : insights from the euro area / authorised for publication by Reinhard Felke
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Continuing the flat trend observed in the first quarter of the year, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators moved broadly sideways over the second quarter of 2024, below their long-term average of 100. Between March and June, the ESI... more

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    Continuing the flat trend observed in the first quarter of the year, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators moved broadly sideways over the second quarter of 2024, below their long-term average of 100. Between March and June, the ESI for the EU decreased by 0.2 points to 96.4, while the ESI for the EA declined by 0.4 points to 95.9. After a period of broad stagnation between Autumn 2023 and Spring 2024, the EU/EA Employment Expectations Indicator slipped in the second quarter of 2024. In June, the indicator stood 1.8 (EU)/2.8 (EA) points below its March reading, approaching (EU) or undercutting (EA) its long-term average. Confidence worsened in retail trade and, to a lesser extent, in industry and construction over the second quarter of 2024. Confidence remained virtually unchanged in services, while it edged up among consumers

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268113349
    Other identifier:
    Parent title: European business cycle indicators - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 074 (July 2024)
    Subjects: euro area; macroeconomics; economic cycle; economic forecasting; economic policy; economic indicator; economic survey; inflation; selling price; investment; European Commission; consumer; economy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten)
  20. European business cycle indicators
    3rd quarter (2023), How is inflation affecting consumer sentiment & behaviour? / authorised for publication by Reinhard Felke
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    How do consumers perceive prices and expect them to develop over the next 12 months? How do their expectations and actual HICP inflation affect consumer confidence, their savings and spending intentions? To throw light on these and some related... more

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    How do consumers perceive prices and expect them to develop over the next 12 months? How do their expectations and actual HICP inflation affect consumer confidence, their savings and spending intentions? To throw light on these and some related questions, the analysis presented in this special takes a close look at the results of the harmonised EU-wide consumer survey up to September 2023. Overall, the partial recovery in consumer confidence since inflation started to come down has not yet translated into clear improvements in the assessments of households' balance sheet positions. This, compounded by increasing intentions to save by the most affluent consumers, suggests subdued growth in private consumption ahead. The recent deterioration in consumer confidence in August and September - if confirmed in the months ahead - could further dampen the prospects for household spending.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789276616832
    Other identifier:
    Parent title: European business cycle indicators - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 068 (October 2023)
    Subjects: euro area; macroeconomics; economic cycle; economic forecasting; economic policy; economic indicator; economic survey; inflation; selling price; investment; European Commission; consumer behaviour
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  21. European business cycle indicators
    4th quarter (2023), Results of the October/November 2023 survey on investment in the manufacturing and services sectors / authorised for publication by Reinhard Felke
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    Following two quarters of decline, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators stabilised in October/November, before posting a significant increase in December. At the end of the fourth quarter, the indicators were 2.5 (EU) / 2.8 (EA)... more

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    Following two quarters of decline, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators stabilised in October/November, before posting a significant increase in December. At the end of the fourth quarter, the indicators were 2.5 (EU) / 2.8 (EA) points up compared to September. Despite the increase, both indicators remained below their long-term average of 100, at 95.6 (EU) / 96.4 (EA) points.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268113295
    Other identifier:
    Parent title: European business cycle indicators - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 069 (January 2024)
    Subjects: euro area; macroeconomics; economic cycle; economic forecasting; economic policy; economic indicator; economic survey; inflation; selling price; investment; European Commission; consumer behaviour
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  22. European business cycle indicators
    1st quarter (2024), Price developments from the perspective of business managers / authorised for publication by Reinhard Felke
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    After signs of recovery at the end of 2023, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators remained broadly stable over the first quarter of 2024. In March 2024, the indicators were 0.3 points above (EU) and 0.2 points below (EA) their... more

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    After signs of recovery at the end of 2023, the EU and euro-area (EA) Economic Sentiment Indicators remained broadly stable over the first quarter of 2024. In March 2024, the indicators were 0.3 points above (EU) and 0.2 points below (EA) their December 2023 values. Both indicators remained below their long-term average of 100, at 96.2 (EU) / 96.3 (EA) points respectively.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Felke, Reinhard B. (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789268113318
    Other identifier:
    Parent title: European business cycle indicators - Show all bands
    Series: Array ; 071 (April 2024)
    Subjects: euro area; macroeconomics; economic cycle; economic forecasting; economic policy; economic indicator; economic survey; inflation; selling price; investment; European Commission; consumer behaviour; prices policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  23. Measuring market-based core inflation expectations
    Author: Grønlund, Asger Munch; Jørgensen, Kasper; Schupp, Fabian
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates,... more

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    We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as well as core inflation risk premia, at daily frequency, whereas core inflation expectations from surveys or macroeconomic projections are typically only available monthly or quarterly. We find that core inflation-linked swap rates are generally less volatile than headline inflation-linked swap rates and that market participants expected core inflation to be substantially more persistent than headline inflation following the 2022 energy price spike. Using an event-study methodology, we also find that monetary policy shocks significantly lower core inflation expectations.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789289963886
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297348
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2908
    Subjects: Inflation-linked swaps; affine term structure model; inflation expectations; inflation; euro area; economic model; swap arrangement; market; financial risk; macroeconomics; economic forecasting; monetary policy; price of energy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis
    development, current practices and prospective challenges
    Contributor: Ciccarelli, Matteo (HerausgeberIn); Darracq Pariès, Matthieu (HerausgeberIn); Priftis, Romanos (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the... more

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    This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they can in principle be used for economic forecasting, scenario and risk analyses. We also discuss the modelling agenda which is currently under development, focusing notably on heterogeneity, machine learning, expectation formation and climate change. The paper makes it clear that the large macroeconometric models typically developed in central banks remain stylised descriptions of our modern economies and can fail to predict or assess the nature of economic events (especially when big crises arise). But even in highly uncertain economic conditions, they can still provide a meaningful contribution to policy preparation. We conclude the paper with a roadmap which will allow the ECB and the Eurosystem to exploit technological advances and cooperation across institutions as a useful means of ensuring that the modelling framework is not only resilient to disruptive events but also innovative.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Contributor: Ciccarelli, Matteo (HerausgeberIn); Darracq Pariès, Matthieu (HerausgeberIn); Priftis, Romanos (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964128
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/299572
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 344
    Subjects: Economic models; forecasting; macroeconometrics; monetary policy; economic model; economic forecasting; macroeconomics; risk management; monetary crisis; European Central Bank; Eurosystem; innovation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 117 Seiten), Illustrationen, Diagramme
  25. What caused the euro area post-pandemic inflation?
    an application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)
    Author: Arce, Óscar; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Kornprobst, Antoine; Montes-Galdón, Carlos
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to... more

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    This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and comparing global inflation dynamics across the major world economic areas, including US, euro area, Canada, UK, and Japan. The paper makes four main contributions. First, it estimates the model using quarterly data from the euro area covering the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2023. Second, it conducts an empirical assessment of how euro area price inflation responds to various exogenous shocks. This includes evaluating how shock transmission evolved during the pandemic and comparing it with experience in the United States. Third, the model decomposes the drivers of wage growth and price inflation in the post-pandemic period. It emphasises the transmission channels and the respective roles of supply and demand forces that have contributed to the recent inflationary surge. Notably, it identifies the impact of labour market tightness, productivity, global supply chain disruptions and energy and food price shocks. Finally, the model generates conditional projections based on these exogenous shocks, enabling a more robust cross-check of inflation forecasts during times of significant global economic disturbances.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964111
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/299570
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 343
    Subjects: econometric modelling; forecasting and simulation; central banking; monetary policy; inflation; economic cycle; economic model; economic forecasting; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen