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Displaying results 1 to 12 of 12.

  1. Evaluating medium term forecasting methods & their implications for EU output gap calculations
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This paper sheds light on two specific, but interlinked, questions - firstly, how do the EU's, medium term actual GDP growth rate forecasts compare, in terms of accuracy and biasedness, with those of the EU's Member States, in their annual Stability... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 289 (70)
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    This paper sheds light on two specific, but interlinked, questions - firstly, how do the EU's, medium term actual GDP growth rate forecasts compare, in terms of accuracy and biasedness, with those of the EU's Member States, in their annual Stability and Convergence Programme (SCP) updates; and secondly, should medium term forecasts be allowed to influence the short run output gap and structural balance calculations used in the EU's fiscal surveillance procedures. Regarding the first question, the paper concludes that the EU's medium term forecasts are equally as good, and arguably better, than those of the SCP's both with respect to accuracy and biasedness. Regarding the second question, due to the relatively rapid loss in forecast accuracy as the time horizon lengthens; the paper suggests that using more forecast information should be avoided in the output gap and structural balance calculations. Extending the forecast horizon to be used in the output gap calculations could exacerbate an existing optimistic bias with respect to the supply side health of the EU's economy, thereby enlarging the risk of procyclicality problems, especially in the upswing phase of cycles, where most of the large fiscal policy errors tend to occur.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279649318
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 070 (October 2017)
    Subjects: Production function methodology; output gaps; common agricultural policy; market economy; supply and demand; economic forecasting; economic planning; economic statistics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Euro area fiscal stance
    Published: january 2017
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the... more

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the appropriateness of the euro area aggregated fiscal stance set out in the European Commission's Spring 2016 European Economic Forecast, concluding that, while it is broadly appropriate from the stabilisation perspective, it deviates slightly from the sustainability objective. Finally, the paper investigates the impact of a fiscal stimulus in Germany on the main euro area macroeconomic variables under an adverse risk scenario. The analytical exercise conducted in the paper is agnostic about the relative weights of the stabilisation and sustainability objectives and considers them separately. This is distinct from the SGP framework, which synthesises the two, placing a stronger emphasis on the latter. The ultimate aim of this approach is to analyse the possible interactions between the two objectives at the current juncture.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289928441
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154635
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 182 (January 2017)
    Subjects: euro area; fiscal policy; public finance; economic forecasting; Economic and Monetary Union
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 56 Seiten), Diagramme
  3. Handbook on rapid estimates
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    In an ever more interconnected and interdependent world, where time is increasingly of the essence, more reliable and up-to-date data are needed to enable and support the process of effective decision making, e.g. via rapid estimates. This handbook... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    In an ever more interconnected and interdependent world, where time is increasingly of the essence, more reliable and up-to-date data are needed to enable and support the process of effective decision making, e.g. via rapid estimates. This handbook provides an overview of the different types of rapid estimates and the statistical and econometric methods for their construction. It also offers guidance for the implementation of rapid estimates in practice and their quality assessment.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279688973
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    Edition: 2017 edition
    Series: Manuals and guidelines
    Subjects: Frühindikator; Prognoseverfahren; Wirtschaftsprognose; Statistische Methode; Modellierung; economic statistics; econometrics; statistical method; macroeconomics; economic indicator; data processing; economic forecasting; user guide
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 520 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Independent fiscal institutions in the EU member states
    the early years
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    This study takes stock of the early history of independent fiscal institutions (IFI) in the EU and draws horizontal lessons for the future from the experiences of Member States. First, it briefly recalls how the consensus of the economic literature... more

    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 289 (67)
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    This study takes stock of the early history of independent fiscal institutions (IFI) in the EU and draws horizontal lessons for the future from the experiences of Member States. First, it briefly recalls how the consensus of the economic literature about well-designed IFIs was reflected in the EU legislation which prompted the spread of IFIs across the whole EU. The paper then describes the significant differences between IFIs across the Member States in terms of the breadth of their mandates, their resources, their visibility in public debates etc. Subsequently, the paper zooms in on two core tasks of IFIs: i) their production or endorsement of the official macroeconomic forecasts used for fiscal planning, and ii) their assessment of national compliance with numerical rules. Qualitative and some tentative quantitative evidence suggest that in the early years of their operation, IFIs have already played a useful role in national budgetary processes, although some common challenges remain present. The discussion paper concludes with a number of potential ideas for strengthening the role of IFIs to the benefit of sound fiscal policymaking. These include, most notably, ensuring more appropriate independence safeguards, improvements in the forecast endorsement process, a more timely and comprehensive monitoring of numerical rules, as well as a broader application of the comply-or-explain principle in relation to IFIs' assessments.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279649257
    Other identifier:
    Series: Array ; 067 (July 2017)
    Subjects: national fiscal frameworks; fiscal governance; independent fiscal institutions; fiscal councils; endorsement of forecasts; monitoring of numerical rules; fiscal policy; economic forecasting; national budget; historical account; EU Member State
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Revenue elasticities in euro area countries
    an analysis of long-run and short-run dynamics
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic -... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (1989)
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    Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic - instead of the currently used static - elasticities in euro area countries. Applying country-specific error correction models we reveal important differences across countries. For a majority of euro area Member States we find evidence for dynamic revenue elasticities. We show that the application of such dynamic elasticities could substantially reduce forecast errors in several countries - with the evidence being stronger based on ex-post than based on real-time data.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289926591
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154422
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 1989 (January 2017)
    Subjects: euro area; public finance; economic forecasting; fiscal policy; budget estimate; national budget
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Below the zero lower bound
    a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (1991)
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    We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change over time. We estimate that it has first ranged marginally above zero, but has decreased to -11 bps in September 2014. We derive the impact of a changing lower bound on the yield curve and interpret the impact of the September 2014 ECB rate cut from this perspective. Our model matches survey forecasts of short rates and the decline in yield volatility during the low-rate period better than a benchmark affine model. We estimate that since mid-2012 the horizon when short rates are expected to exceed 25 bps again has ranged between 18 and 62 months.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927109
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154424
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 1991 (January 2017)
    Subjects: euro area; interest; monetary policy; econometrics; economic forecasting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Trust, but verify
    de-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the central bank's objective. This is shown within a framework where agents form expectations using adaptive learning,... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    DS 534 (1994)
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    The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the central bank's objective. This is shown within a framework where agents form expectations using adaptive learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the properties of inflation expectations in the euro area. Our results also suggest that monetary policy may lose effectiveness if delayed too much, as expectations are allowed to drift away from target for too long.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927161
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154427
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 1994 (January 2017)
    Subjects: economic cycle; inflation; economic forecasting; central bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Will US inflation awake from the dead?
    the role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining inflation,... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    DS 534 (2001)
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    The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a Phillips curve model that takes into account inflation persistence, inflation expectations, supply shocks and labour market slack as determinants explains rather well the behaviour of inflation after the Great Recession, with little evidence of a \missing deflation puzzle". More important than the choice of the slack measure is the consideration of time-variation in the slope. In fact, we find that Phillips curve models with time-varying slope coefficients are able to outperform significantly the constant-slope model as well as other non-linear models over 2008Q1-2015Q1.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927239
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154434
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2001 (January 2017)
    Subjects: economic cycle; inflation; labour market; economic recession; economic forecasting; central bank; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction
    before, within or after?
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The expost threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks:... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (2025)
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    Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The expost threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks: unstable thresholds in recursive estimations and an in-sample overfit at the expense of out-of-sample performance. We propose two alternatives for threshold setting: (i) including preferences in the estimation itself and (ii) setting thresholds ex-ante according to preferences only. Given probabilistic model output, it is intuitive that a decision rule is independent of the data or model specification, as thresholds on probabilities represent a willingness to issue a false alarm vis-à-vis missing a crisis. We provide simulated and real-world evidence that this simplification results in stable thresholds and improves out-of-sample performance. Our solution is not restricted to binary-choice models, but directly transferable to the signaling approach and all probabilistic early-warning models.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927475
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162681
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2025 (February 2017)
    Subjects: econometrics; economy; economic forecasting; monetary crisis
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Forecasting euro area inflation using targeted predictors
    is money coming back?
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, we find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. We show that monetary... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    DS 534 (2015)
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    This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, we find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. We show that monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the benchmark model are generally high and significant across horizons and HICP components only in the most recent period. When the forecasts are computed using factor-augmented regressions based on the best predictors, we confirm the importance of monetary and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of variables.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927376
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154448
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2015 (February 2017)
    Subjects: economic cycle; inflation; economic forecasting; euro area; econometrics; money; money supply; central bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Exchange rate prediction redux
    new models, new data, new currencies
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    DS 534 (2018)
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    Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance at horizons of up to 5 years. In this paper, we further expand the set of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity factors. The performance of these models is compared against the random walk benchmark. The models are estimated in error correction and firstdifference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the "consistency" test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). No model consistently outperforms a random walk, by a mean squared error measure, although purchasing power parity does fairly well. Moreover, along a direction-of-change dimension, certain structural models do outperform a random walk with statistical significance. While one finds that these forecasts are cointegrated with the actual values of exchange rates, in most cases, the elasticity of the forecasts with respect to the actual values is different from unity. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period will not necessarily work well in another period.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289927406
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154451
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2018 (February 2017)
    Subjects: Wechselkurstheorie; Wechselkurs; Prognoseverfahren; Wirtschaftsmodell; Vergleich; Theorie; Schätzung; Industrieländer; exchange rate; economic forecasting; international finance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Euro area fiscal stance
    Published: january 2017
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the... more

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 535 (182)
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    This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the appropriateness of the euro area aggregated fiscal stance set out in the European Commission's Spring 2016 European Economic Forecast, concluding that, while it is broadly appropriate from the stabilisation perspective, it deviates slightly from the sustainability objective. Finally, the paper investigates the impact of a fiscal stimulus in Germany on the main euro area macroeconomic variables under an adverse risk scenario. The analytical exercise conducted in the paper is agnostic about the relative weights of the stabilisation and sustainability objectives and considers them separately. This is distinct from the SGP framework, which synthesises the two, placing a stronger emphasis on the latter. The ultimate aim of this approach is to analyse the possible interactions between the two objectives at the current juncture.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289928441
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154635
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 182 (January 2017)
    Subjects: euro area; fiscal policy; public finance; economic forecasting; Economic and Monetary Union
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 56 Seiten), Diagramme