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  1. Algorithmic risk assessment in the hands of humans
    Published: December 2019
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic predictions of future offending (risk assessments) as an aid to judicial discretion in felony sentencing. We find that judges' decisions are influenced by the risk score, leading to longer sentences for... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 4
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    We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic predictions of future offending (risk assessments) as an aid to judicial discretion in felony sentencing. We find that judges' decisions are influenced by the risk score, leading to longer sentences for defendants with higher scores and shorter sentences for those with lower scores. However, we find no robust evidence that this reshuffling led to a decline in recidivism, and, over time, judges appeared to use the risk scores less. Risk assessment's failure to reduce recidivism is at least partially explained by judicial discretion in its use. Judges systematically grant leniency to young defendants, despite their high risk of reoffending. This is in line with a long standing practice of treating youth as a mitigator in sentencing, due to lower perceived culpability. Such a conflict in goals may have led prior studies to overestimate the extent to which judges make prediction errors. Since one of the most important inputs to the risk score is effectively off-limits, risk assessment's expected benefits are curtailed. We find no evidence that risk assessment affected racial disparities statewide, although there was a relative increase in sentences for black defendants in courts that appeared to use risk assessment most. We conduct simulations to evaluate how race and age disparities would have changed if judges had fully complied with the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm. Racial disparities might have increased slightly, but the largest change would have been higher relative incarceration rates for defendants under the age of 23. In the context of contentious public discussions about algorithms, our results highlight the importance of thinking about how man and machine interact.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/215249
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12853
    Subjects: crime; risk assessment; prediction; algorithms; courts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Terrorism, immigration and asylum approval
    Published: September 2019
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using the universe of individual asylum cases in the United States from 2000-2004 and a difference-in-differences research design, we test whether Sept. 11, 2001 decreased the likelihood that applicants from Muslim-majority countries were granted... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 4
    No inter-library loan

     

    Using the universe of individual asylum cases in the United States from 2000-2004 and a difference-in-differences research design, we test whether Sept. 11, 2001 decreased the likelihood that applicants from Muslim-majority countries were granted asylum. Our estimates suggest that the attacks resulted in a 4 percentage points decrease in the likelihood that applicants from Muslim-majority countries are granted asylum. The estimated effect is larger for applicants who share a country of origin with the Sept. 11, 2001 attackers. These effects do not differ across judge political affiliation. Our findings provide evidence that emotions affect the decisions of judges.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207460
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12635
    Subjects: courts; crime; immigration; judicial decision; sentencing and terrorism
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The Japanese judiciary
    Published: June 2019
    Publisher:  Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper / Harvard John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business ; no. 1007 (06/2019)
    Subjects: courts; judicial independence
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten)
    Notes:

    Forthcoming in Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics Robert Pekkanen & Saadia Pekkanen, eds., New York: Oxford University Press