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  1. Resilience, crisis contagion, and vulnerability in Central Europe and the Baltics
    Author: Beqiraj, Elton; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Di Pietro, Marco; Serpieri, Carolina
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

    The recent financial crisis had serious worldwide impacts. Initial resilience and good past performances led to the illusion that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region was able to decouple from developments in advanced economies. This initial... more

    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The recent financial crisis had serious worldwide impacts. Initial resilience and good past performances led to the illusion that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region was able to decouple from developments in advanced economies. This initial illusion was however immediately denied since the crisis spread to that region just with a lag. The CEE region was, in fact, suddenly placed at the epicenter of the emerging market crisis. Further, the consequences of the crisis were not uniform among countries of the CEE region. Strong cross-country disparities in the resistance and recovery capacities have been observed. Focusing on a CEE sub-region, the Central Europe and the Baltics (CEB), our research project aims to analyze and disentangle the resilience performance to the 2008 financial crisis within countries of this region according to their shock isolation and absorptive capacities. We develop a new methodology to investigate two important dimensions of resilience, namely recovery and resistance. The latter can be defined as the relative vulnerability or sensitivity of economies within CEB region to disturbances and disruptions, whereas the former is the speed and extent of recovery from such a disruption or recession. Our methodology is based on Bayesian estimation techniques for general equilibrium models. We build and estimate a DSGE model for a small-open economy, which features nominal wage and price rigidities, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity-constrained households and limited access to deposits for the bank system. Then we group our parameter estimates in two sets: structural parameters and stochastic structure. The former individuates the deep parameters affecting the economic recovery capacities after stochastic disturbances (innovations) occur; the latter governs the innovation distributions and their intrinsic persistence. Accordingly, we study the relative differences across CEB economies using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), obtaining synthetic orthogonal indexes of these differences in a parsimonious way. Finally, we use the two sets to compare the relative recovery (resistance) country performances of a single country to those of a hypothetical economy characterized by a CEB average structural (stochastic) set of estimated parameters. Precisely, considering estimated parameters as variables of a cross-sectional dataset organized by country, we first look at national differences considering as reference a hypothetical country, where there are no distortions and/or unaffected by disturbances; second we use, as reference, a hypothetical average country, built on the estimated parameter means.

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279771804
    Other identifier:
    Series: JRC technical reports
    Subjects: Finanzkrise; Wirtschaftslage; Wirtschaftliche Instabilität; DSGE-Modell; Kleine offene Volkswirtschaft; Baltische Staaten; Osteuropa; economic recession; monetary crisis; fiscal policy; budget policy; banking policy; budget deficit; monetary policy; debt; Baltic States; Central and Eastern Europe; research report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns
    a methodological framework
    Author: Bouabdallah, Othman; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Warmedinger, Thomas; De Stefani, Roberta; Drudi, Francesco; Setzer, Ralph; Westphal, Andreas
    Published: April 2017
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national policies. This paper introduces a comprehensive DSA framework for euro area sovereigns that could be used for analysis of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities. Specifically, this framework consists of three main building blocks: (i) a deterministic DSA, which embeds debt simulations under a benchmark and various narrative shock scenarios; (ii) a stochastic DSA, providing for a probabilistic approach to debt sustainability; and (iii) other relevant indicators capturing liquidity and solvency risks. The information embedded in the three main DSA blocks can be summarised in a heat map, which can provide guidance on the overall assessment of risks to debt sustainability. This method reflects the need to have a broad-based assessment, cross-checking information and perspectives from various sources with a view to deriving a robust debt sustainability assessment.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289928472
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162202
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 185 (April 2017)
    Subjects: fiscal policy; public debt; euro area; budget deficit; budget estimate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (42 Seiten), Diagramme, Tabellen
  3. Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns
    a methodological framework
    Author: Bouabdallah, Othman; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Warmedinger, Thomas; De Stefani, Roberta; Drudi, Francesco; Setzer, Ralph; Westphal, Andreas
    Published: April 2017
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis... more

    Access:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 535 (185)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national policies. This paper introduces a comprehensive DSA framework for euro area sovereigns that could be used for analysis of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities. Specifically, this framework consists of three main building blocks: (i) a deterministic DSA, which embeds debt simulations under a benchmark and various narrative shock scenarios; (ii) a stochastic DSA, providing for a probabilistic approach to debt sustainability; and (iii) other relevant indicators capturing liquidity and solvency risks. The information embedded in the three main DSA blocks can be summarised in a heat map, which can provide guidance on the overall assessment of risks to debt sustainability. This method reflects the need to have a broad-based assessment, cross-checking information and perspectives from various sources with a view to deriving a robust debt sustainability assessment.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289928472
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162202
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 185 (April 2017)
    Subjects: fiscal policy; public debt; euro area; budget deficit; budget estimate
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (42 Seiten), Diagramme, Tabellen