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Displaying results 1 to 7 of 7.

  1. Over- and underreaction to information
    the role of complexity in belief-updating
    Published: 11 October 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP19576
    Subjects: overreaction; underreaction; beliefs; noisy cognition; representa-tiveness; bounded rationality; attention; mental representation; completeness; restrictiveness; behavioral economics; learning; forecasting; inference
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 113 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Wealth, cost, and misperception
    empirical estimation of three interaction channels in a financial-macroeconomic agent-based model
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Prague

    Financial-macroeconomic agent-based models offer a promising avenue for understanding complex economic interactions, but their use is hindered by challenging empirical estimation. Our paper addresses this gap by constructing a stylized integrated... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 167
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    Financial-macroeconomic agent-based models offer a promising avenue for understanding complex economic interactions, but their use is hindered by challenging empirical estimation. Our paper addresses this gap by constructing a stylized integrated model and estimating its core parameters using US data from 1954 to 2022. To tackle econometric obstacles, including mixed data frequencies, we adapt the simulated method of moments. We then focus on three key interaction channels. The stock market influences the real sector through the wealth effect, which boosts current consumption, and the cost effect, which lowers financing costs for firms. Conversely, the real economy impacts the stock market via the price misperception effect, where economic conditions help approximate the fundamental value of stocks. Our results provide strong statistical support for all three channels, offering novel empirical insights into critical dynamics between the two sectors of the economy.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/300179
    Series: IES working paper ; 2024, 22
    Subjects: integrated agent-based model; behavioral finance and macroeconomics; bounded rationality; heuristic switching; simulated method of moments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. On the psychological foundations of ambiguity and compound risk aversion
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 4
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    Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes towards ambiguity and compound risk which suggests that compound risk aversion may provide a psychological foundation for ambiguity aversion. However, compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion may also be independent psychological phenomena, but what would then explain their strong correlation? We tackle these questions by training a treatment group’s ability to reduce compound to simple risks, and analyzing how this affects their compound risk and ambiguity attitudes in comparison to a control group who is taught something unrelated to reducing compound risk. We find that aversion to compound risk disappears almost entirely in the treatment group, while the aversion towards both artificial and natural sources of ambiguity remain high and are basically unaffected by the teaching of how to reduce compound lotteries. Moreover, similar to previous studies, we observe a strong correlation between compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion, but this correlation only exists in the control group while in the treatment group it is rather low and insignificant. These findings suggest that ambiguity attitudes are not a psychological relative, and derived from, attitudes towards compound risk, i.e., compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion do not share the same psychological foundations. While compound risk aversion is primarily driven by a form of bounded rationality - the inability to reduce compound lotteries - ambiguity aversion is unrelated to this inability, suggesting that ambiguity aversion may be a genuine preference in its own right.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/299960
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 17032
    Subjects: ambiguity aversion; compound risk aversion; bounded rationality; reduction of compound lotteries
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. On the psychological foundations of ambiguity and compound risk aversion
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63
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    Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes towards ambiguity and compound risk which suggests that compound risk aversion may provide a psychological foundation for ambiguity aversion. However, compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion may also be independent psychological phenomena, but what would then explain their strong correlation? We tackle these questions by training a treatment group’s ability to reduce compound to simple risks, and analyzing how this affects their compound risk and ambiguity attitudes in comparison to a control group who is taught something unrelated to reducing compound risk. We find that aversion to compound risk disappears almost entirely in the treatment group, while the aversion towards both artificial and natural sources of ambiguity remain high and are basically unaffected by the teaching of how to reduce compound lotteries. Moreover, similar to previous studies, we observe a strong correlation between compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion, but this correlation only exists in the control group while in the treatment group it is rather low and insignificant. These findings suggest that ambiguity attitudes are not a psychological relative, and derived from, attitudes towards compound risk, i.e., compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion do not share the same psychological foundations. While compound risk aversion is primarily driven by a form of bounded rationality – the inability to reduce compound lotteries – ambiguity aversion is unrelated to this inability, suggesting that ambiguity aversion may be a genuine preference in its own right.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/301276
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 11150 (2024)
    Subjects: ambiguity aversion; compound risk aversion; bounded rationality; reduction of compound lotteries
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Complexity and hyperbolic discounting
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  [Harvard Business School], [Boston, MA]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Harvard Business School ; 24, 048
    Subjects: Hyperbolic discounting; present bias; bounded rationality; cognitive uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Over- and underreaction to information
    Published: August 29, 2024
    Publisher:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: PIER working paper ; 24, 030
    Subjects: verreaction; underreaction; beliefs; noisy cognition; representativeness; bounded rationality; attention; mental representation; completeness; restrictiveness; behavioral economics; learning; forecasting; inference
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 111 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Over- and underreaction to information
    the role of complexity in belief-updating
    Published: 11 October 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP19576
    Subjects: overreaction; underreaction; beliefs; noisy cognition; representa-tiveness; bounded rationality; attention; mental representation; completeness; restrictiveness; behavioral economics; learning; forecasting; inference
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 113 Seiten), Illustrationen