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  1. European trade and foreign direct investment U-Shaping industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe
    theory and evidence
    Author: Repkine, Alexandre; Walsh, Patrick Paul
    Published: 1998
    Publisher:  LICOS, Leuven

    We examine the evolution of industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania over the period 1989-1995 in terms of product trade orientation prior to the transition process, some products traded in a market economy while others traded in... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 407 (73)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We examine the evolution of industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania over the period 1989-1995 in terms of product trade orientation prior to the transition process, some products traded in a market economy while others traded in the artificial market of the Soviet Bloc. We theoretically and empirically model the growth dynamics of EU oriented output within sectors of industry, ex-post trade and market liberalisation, as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) induced Schumpeterian (vertical) waves of product innovation. We estimate the growth dynamics of non-EU oriented output within sectors as unobservable deterministic sector and country specific heterogeneity. The results indicate that the evolution of industrial production within sectors that were EU oriented prior to transition grew with increasing convexity over time. This growth was unconstrained by the transition process due to increased access to the European market, foreign capital and foreign expertise. Pre-transition non-EU industrial production is estimated to follow the same pattern as that observed in CIS countries. Hence the faster recovery, or the U-Shape industrial output, observed in CEE as compared with CIS countries is mainly explained by the inherited presence of EU oriented production and its unconstrained growth over the transition period.

     
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/75443
    Series: LICOS discussion paper ; 73
    Subjects: Foreign Direct Investment; Industrial Output Growth; Transition Economies; Cross-Country and Branches of Industry Regressions
    Scope: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  2. Managing capital flows in transition economies with a case-study of Central and Eastern Europe
    Author: Drábek, Zdeněk; Griffith-Jones, Stephany
    Published: 1998
    Publisher:  WTO, Economic Research and Analysis Div., Genève

    Management of capital inflows has unexpectedly become a major challenge in transition economies. These countries were expected to have an insatiable demand for foreign capital, and an excess demand for capital inflows was, therefore, predicted by... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 122 (1998,4)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Management of capital inflows has unexpectedly become a major challenge in transition economies. These countries were expected to have an insatiable demand for foreign capital, and an excess demand for capital inflows was, therefore, predicted by most observers. Foreign investors are also known to be very selective in their choice of markets, and these countries were a big unknown. Moreover, macroeconomic policy in these countries has been dominated by the objective of disinflation. We explain in this paper the reasons why some transition countries have been an attractive market for foreign investors and how important has foreign capital been for these countries. But the bulk of the paper provides an assessment of government policies to manage foreign capital inflows. We evaluate the policies against the background of different government objectives and in terms of the actual policy instruments used by the monetary authorities, the timing and sequencing and the costs of these interventions. We argue that the initial responses to capital surges were poor; the authorities were reluctant to adjust their original policies and learn from the experiences elsewhere. Eventually, their policy responses were changed but until the costs of inertia became too high. The authorities have effectively used sterilization policies, more flexible exchange rate policies combined with tight monetary and fiscal policies. They also understood that an effective management of capital flows must start from well functioning markets, and have been prepared to adopt structural policies whenever market imperfections could be identified.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/90661
    Edition: Manuscript date: February, 1998
    Series: Staff working paper ERAD ; 98-04
    Subjects: Capital Flows; Macroeconomic Policy; Transition Economies
    Scope: Online-Ressourcee (43 S.)