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Displaying results 1 to 7 of 7.

  1. Policy rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the ECB
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 464
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW) (2013) rules. Rules that respond to recent outcomes of HICP Core or domestic inflation data called for raising interest rates in 2021 and well ahead of the rate increases implemented by the ECB. Thus, such simple outcome-based policy rules deserve more attention in the ECB's monetary policy strategy. Interestingly, the rules support the recent shift of the ECB to policy easing. Yet, they add a note of caution by suggesting that policy rates should not decline as fast as apparently anticipated by traded derivative-based interest rate forecasts.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/303512
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 209 (2024)
    Subjects: Monetary policy; interest rates; European Central Bank; Taylor rule; OrphanidesWieland rule; New Keynesian macro-epidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. New evidence on the PBoC's reaction function
    Author: El-Shagi, Makram; Ma, Yishuo
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  HenU Center for Financial Development and Stability, Shunhe, Kaifeng, Henan, China

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 807
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CFDS discussion paper series ; 2024, 5
    Subjects: China; monetary policy; reaction function; Taylor rule
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Taylor rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the Fed
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: 11 March 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different... more

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    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Location:
    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Bibliotheks-und Informationssystem der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (BIS)
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    Location:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future. In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic. The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18910
    Subjects: Monetary policy; interest rates; Federal Reserve; Taylor rule; New Keynesian macro-epidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Taylor rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the Fed
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 464
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future. In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic. The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules' prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/285356
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 201 (2024)
    Subjects: Monetary policy; interest rates; Federal Reserve; Taylor rule; New Keynesian macroepidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Policy rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the ecb
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: 23 September 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP19521
    Subjects: Monetary policy; Interest rates; European central bank; Taylor rule; Orphanides-Wieland rule; New-Keynesian macro-epidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Taylor rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the Fed
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: 11 March 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different... more

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

    Location:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future. In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic. The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18910
    Subjects: Monetary policy; interest rates; Federal Reserve; Taylor rule; New Keynesian macro-epidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Policy rules and the inflation surge
    the case of the ecb
    Author: Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker
    Published: 23 September 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

    Location:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP19521
    Subjects: Monetary policy; Interest rates; European central bank; Taylor rule; Orphanides-Wieland rule; New-Keynesian macro-epidemic models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen