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Displaying results 1 to 8 of 8.

  1. Measuring output gap
    is it worth your Time?
    Author: Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to... more

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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
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    E_Book IMF
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    We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates

     
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  2. Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
    Author: Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in... more

    Access:
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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

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    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
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    E_Book IMF
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    This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential

     
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  3. COVID-19 and SME failures
    Author: Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Penciakova, Veronika; Sander, Nicholas
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, ab-sent government support. Accommodation and Food Services, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks' assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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  4. Financial amplification of labor supply shocks
    Author: Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros P.
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
    Signature:
    Online
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    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    No inter-library loan

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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
    Signature:
    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is restricted by the value of capital, generating a pecuniary externality when financing constraints bind. Additionally, there is a distributive externality operating through wages. The planner's allocation can be decentralized with two instruments: a credit tax/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend on whether financing constraints bind or not

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
  5. Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
    Author: Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
  6. Financial amplification of labor supply shocks
    Author: Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros P.
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is restricted by the value of capital, generating a pecuniary externality when financing constraints bind. Additionally, there is a distributive externality operating through wages. The planner's allocation can be decentralized with two instruments: a credit tax/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend on whether financing constraints bind or not

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
  7. COVID-19 and SME failures
    Author: Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Penciakova, Veronika; Sander, Nicholas
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, ab-sent government support. Accommodation and Food Services, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks' assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
  8. Measuring output gap
    is it worth your Time?
    Author: Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file