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  1. Natural Resources and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies
    A Curse and a Blessing
    Author: Hamann, Franz; Mendez-Vizcaino, Juan Camilo; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on impact and in the long-run, oil reserves reduce it marginally on impact but increase it in the long-run. We propose a model of sovereign default and oil extraction consistent with these observations. The sovereign manages oil reserves strategically to make default less painful by altering the value of autarky, and hence its sustainable debt falls. All else equal, default is less likely in states in which reserves or oil prices are higher, or non-oil GDP is lower, but the equilibrium dynamics of reserves and country risk in response to oil-price shocks switch from negatively correlated on impact to positively correlated for several years

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31058
    Subjects: Erdölvorkommen; Ölpreis; Länderrisiko; Internationale Staatsschulden; Öffentliche Schulden; Staatsbankrott; Schwellenländer; International Lending and Debt Problems; Open Economy Macroeconomics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Notes:

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  2. Natural resources and sovereign risk in emerging economies
    a curse and a blessing
    Author: Hamann, Franz; Mendez-Vizcaino, Juan Camilo; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
    Published: March 17, 2023
    Publisher:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: PIER working paper ; 23, 004
    Subjects: Erdölvorkommen; Ölpreis; Länderrisiko; Internationale Staatsschulden; Öffentliche Schulden; Staatsbankrott; Schwellenländer; Country Risk; Oil Prices; Oil Reserves; Sovereign Debt
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Sovereign Default and Tax-smoothing in the Shadow of Corruption and Institutional Weakness
    Author: Azzimonti, Marina; Mitra, Nirvana
    Published: December 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Emerging countries exhibit volatile fiscal policies and frequent sovereign debt crises, that significantly diminish the well-being of their citizens. International advisors typically suggest developed-world solutions as a remedy. We argue that the... more

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Emerging countries exhibit volatile fiscal policies and frequent sovereign debt crises, that significantly diminish the well-being of their citizens. International advisors typically suggest developed-world solutions as a remedy. We argue that the root of the problem lies in the institutional environment, which does not incentivize responsible policymaking, particularly tax-smoothing practices. Focusing on democratic representation and control of corruption, our dynamic political-economy bargaining model shows that nations with weaker institutions experience frequent default episodes and greater economic volatility. Our results are in line with stylized facts from a panel of 58 countries between 1990 and 2022. Through counterfactual experiments, we find that while emerging economy policymakers might favor moderate reforms to improve democratic representation, achieving the institutional depth seen in developed countries is politically unfeasible, despite its clear advantages for citizens

     
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