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  1. Honduras
    selected issues and analytical notes
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Selected Issues paper uses efficiency frontiers for benchmarking of social spending in Honduras. The results reveal significant room to improve public health and education spending efficiency with potentially large fiscal savings. From an... more

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    This Selected Issues paper uses efficiency frontiers for benchmarking of social spending in Honduras. The results reveal significant room to improve public health and education spending efficiency with potentially large fiscal savings. From an input-oriented point of view, Honduras performs poorly in education and health spending efficiency. From an output-oriented point of view, health spending efficiency appears to be in line with regional comparators, while there is room to improve efficiency in secondary education. In health and education spending, the priority is to tackle the disconnection between compensation benefits and labor productivity

     
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  2. Mexico
    selected issues
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Selected Issues paper analyzes transmission of monetary policy rates to lending and deposit rates in Mexico. The results show that transmission of the policy rate to market rates is statistically significant in all cases, except for mortgage... more

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    This Selected Issues paper analyzes transmission of monetary policy rates to lending and deposit rates in Mexico. The results show that transmission of the policy rate to market rates is statistically significant in all cases, except for mortgage rates. For sight deposits, pass-through is low, with a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the deposit rate. For term deposits the pass-through is stronger, but remains below unity at 0.7. The pass-through to both lending and deposit rates is very rapid. The dynamic specifications show that pass-through is significant in either the current or the following month, and the long-term impact is achieved during the second month

     
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  3. Mexico
    2016 Article IV consultation : press release, staff report, and informational annex
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mexico has navigated successfully a complex external environment, characterized by heightened global financial-market volatility. The economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, and inflation is... more

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    This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mexico has navigated successfully a complex external environment, characterized by heightened global financial-market volatility. The economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, and inflation is close to the target. The flexible exchange rate is playing a central role in helping the economy adjust to external shocks. Macroeconomic policies remain focused on maintaining strong fundamentals. Continued implementation of the structural reforms agenda should help lift potential growth over the medium term. The economy is projected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2016

     
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  4. Caribbean energy
    macro-related challenges
    Author: McIntyre, Meredith A.; El-Ashram, Ahmed; Ronci, Márcio Valério; Reynaud, Julien; Che, Natasha; Wang, Ke; Acevedo, Sebastian; Lutz, Mark A.; Strodel, Francis; Osueke, Anayo; Yun, Hanlei
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy... more

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    High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships

     
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  5. Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries
    Author: Airaudo, Marco; Buffie, Edward F.; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate... more

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    We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float

     
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  6. Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model
    Author: Alla, Zineddine; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Ghosh, Atish R.
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy,... more

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    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker's preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations

     
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  7. China's slowdown and global financial market volatility
    is world growth losing out?
    Author: Cashin, Paul A.; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated... more

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    China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates

     
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  8. Serial sovereign defaults and debt restructurings
    Author: Asonuma, Tamon
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated... more

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    Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper explains these stylized facts within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by explicitly modeling renegotiations between a defaulting country and its creditors. The quantitative analysis of the model reveals that the equilibrium probability of default for a given debt-to-GDP level is weakly increasing with the number of past defaults. The model also accords with an additional fact: lower recovery rates (high NPV haircuts) are associated with increases in spreads at renegotiation

     
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  9. Foreign exchange intervention under policy uncertainty
    Author: Adler, Gustavo; Lama C., Ruy; Medina, Juan Pablo
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on... more

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    We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization

     
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  10. Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation
    Author: Portillo, Rafael; Zanna, Luis-Felipe; O'Connell, Stephen A.; Peck, Richard M.
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We introduce subsistence requirements in food consumption into a simple new-Keynesian model with flexible food and sticky non-food prices. We study how the endogenous structural transformation that results from subsistence affects the dynamics of the... more

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    We introduce subsistence requirements in food consumption into a simple new-Keynesian model with flexible food and sticky non-food prices. We study how the endogenous structural transformation that results from subsistence affects the dynamics of the economy, the design of monetary policy, and the properties of inflation at different levels of development. A calibrated version of the model encompasses both rich and poor countries and broadly replicates the properties of inflation across the development spectrum, including the dominant role played by changes in the relative price of food in poor countries. We derive a welfare-based loss function for the monetary authority and show that optimal policy calls for complete (in some cases nearcomplete) stabilization of sticky-price non-food inflation, despite the presence of a foodsubsistence threshold. Subsistence amplifies the welfare losses of policy mistakes, however, raising the stakes for monetary policy at earlier stages of development

     
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  11. Financial stability and interest-rate policy
    a quantitative assessment of costs and benefits
    Author: Pescatori, Andrea; Laséen, Stefan
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Should monetary policy use its short-term policy rate to stabilize the growth in household credit and housing prices with the aim of promoting financial stability? We ask this question for the case of Canada. We find that to a first approximation,... more

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    Should monetary policy use its short-term policy rate to stabilize the growth in household credit and housing prices with the aim of promoting financial stability? We ask this question for the case of Canada. We find that to a first approximation, the answer is no- especially when the economy is slowing down

     
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  12. Macroprudential and monetary policy interactions in a DSGE model for Sweden
    Author: Chen, Jiaqian; Columba, Francesco
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to Sweden. Households face a ceiling on their loan-to-value ratio and must amortize... more

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    We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to Sweden. Households face a ceiling on their loan-to-value ratio and must amortize their mortgages. The government grants mortgage interest payment deductions. Lending rates are affected by mortgage risk weights. We find that demand-side macroprudential measures are more effective in curbing household debt ratios than monetary policy, and they are less costly in terms of foregone consumption. A tighter macroprudential stance is also found to be welfare improving, by promoting lower consumption volatility in response to shocks, especially when using a combination of macroprudential instruments

     
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  13. Amortization requirements may increase household debt
    a simple example
    Author: Svensson, Lars E. O.
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Debt amortization requirements have been suggested as a way to reduce household indebtedness. However, a closer look reveals that amortization requirements may create incentives for both borrowers and lenders to borrow and lend more rather than less.... more

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    Debt amortization requirements have been suggested as a way to reduce household indebtedness. However, a closer look reveals that amortization requirements may create incentives for both borrowers and lenders to borrow and lend more rather than less. Suppose that a household plans to finance a given housing purchase through a preferred future mortgage path. If that mortgage path violates a new amortization requirement, the household can still achieve its preferred mortgage path, net after savings, by initially borrowing more, investing the excess borrowing in a savings account, and fulfilling the amortization requirement by withdrawals from the savings account over time. This is obvious, if the savings interest rate equals the mortgage rate, because then the excess borrowing is costless. But even if the savings interest rate is less than the debt interest rate, so that the excess borrowing is costly, there remains a strong incentive to initially borrow more than without an amortization requirement. Furthermore, under these circumstances, it is profitable and quite riskless for banks to let borrowers borrow more and invest the excess borrowing in a savings account in the bank, giving lenders an incentive to lend more, not less, than without amortization requirements. Thus, amortization requirements as a way of reducing household indebtedness may be counterproductive

     
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  14. Understanding corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America
    Author: Caceres, Carlos; Bastos, Fabiano Rodrigues
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyzes the potential risks and vulnerabilities of non-financial corporates in Latin America and Canada. We quantify the impact of company-specific, countryspecific, and global factors in driving corporate spreads. Overall, we found that... more

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    This paper analyzes the potential risks and vulnerabilities of non-financial corporates in Latin America and Canada. We quantify the impact of company-specific, countryspecific, and global factors in driving corporate spreads. Overall, we found that all these factors play a role in explaining corporate risk. In particular, country specific factors such as exchange rate and sovereign CDS spreads are significantly associated with changes in corporate spreads, underscoring the importance of solid policy frameworks. We also find that global conditions, such as the VIX, are dominant drivers of corporate spreads. In recent years, the adverse effects from deteriorating domestic conditions have been broadly offset by relatively bening global financial conditions. However, a sustained reversal in these conditions would put significant pressure on corporate risk

     
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  15. Power it up
    strengthening the electricity sector to improve efficiency and support economic activity
    Author: Di Bella, Gabriel; Grigoli, Francesco
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Poor performance of the electricity sector remains a drag to economic efficiency and a bottleneck to economic activity in many low-income countries. This paper proposes a number of models that account for different equilibria (some better, some... more

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    Poor performance of the electricity sector remains a drag to economic efficiency and a bottleneck to economic activity in many low-income countries. This paper proposes a number of models that account for different equilibria (some better, some worse) of the electricity sector. They show how policy choices (affecting insolvency prospects or related to rules for electricity dispatching or tariff setting), stochastic generation costs, and initial conditions, affect investment in generation and electricity supply. They also show how credible (non-credible) promises of stronger enforcement to reduce theft result in larger (smaller) electricity supply, lower (higher) government subsidies, and lower (higher) tariffs and distribution losses, which in turn affect economic activity. To illustrate these findings, the paper reviews the experience of Haiti, a country stuck in a bad equilibrium of insufficient supply, high prices, and electricity theft; and that of Nicaragua, which is gradually transitioning to a better equilibrium of the electricity sector

     
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  16. VAR meets DSGE
    uncovering the monetary transmission mechanism in low-income countries
    Author: Li, Bin; O'Connell, Stephen A.; Adam, Christopher S.; Berg, Andrew; Montiel, Peter
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under... more

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    VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid-a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that 'insignificant' results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong

     
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  17. How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?
    Author: Cimadomo, Jacopo; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents... more

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    This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance-and other economic fundamentals-to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts' expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads

     
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  18. Spillovers from Japan's unconventional monetary policy to emerging Asia
    a global VAR approach
    Author: Ganelli, Giovanni; Tawk, Nour
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan's quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-a-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia's... more

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    We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan's quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-a-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia's GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base

     
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  19. Fiscal buffers, private debt, and stagnation
    the good, the bad and the ugly
    Author: Batini, Nicoletta; Melina, Giovanni; Villa, Stefania
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We revisit the empirical relationship between private/public debt and output, and build a model that reproduces it. In the model, the government provides financial assistance to credit-constrained agents to mitigate deleveraging. As we observe in the... more

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    We revisit the empirical relationship between private/public debt and output, and build a model that reproduces it. In the model, the government provides financial assistance to credit-constrained agents to mitigate deleveraging. As we observe in the data, surges in private debt are potentially more damaging for the economy than surges in public debt. The model suggests two policy implications. First, capping leverage leads to milder recessions, but also implies more muted expansions. Second, with fiscal buffers, financial assistance to credit-constrained agents helps avoid stagnation. The growth returns from intervention decline as the government approaches the fiscal limit

     
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  20. Monetary and fiscal policies and the dynamics of the yield curve in Morocco
    Author: Ahokpossi, Calixte; Garcia Martinez, Pilar; Kemoe, Laurent
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004-14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield... more

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    We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004-14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco's context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies

     
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  21. The consequences of policy uncertainty
    disconnects and dilutions in the South African real effective exchange rate-export relationship
    Author: Hlatshwayo, Sandile; Saxegaard, Magnus
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature... more

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    In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature has put forward a number of possible explanations, from multi-national supply-chains to muted exchange rate pass-through. This research explores the role of policy uncertainty in reducing the responsiveness of exports to relative price changes. We construct a novel 'news chatter' measure of policy uncertainty and examine how it, paired with other supply-side constraints, can improve our understanding of export performance. We find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to the REER and has short and long-run level effects on export performance. Finally, we show that a measure of competitiveness that adjusts for uncertainty and supply-side constraints greatly outperforms the REER in tracking exports performance

     
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  22. Did the global financial crisis break the U.S. Phillips curve?
    Author: Laséen, Stefan; Taheri Sanjani, Marzie
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are... more

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    Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC

     
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  23. What is keeping U.S. core inflation low
    insights from a bottom-up approach
    Author: Abdih, Yasser; Balakrishnan, Ravi; Shang, Baoping
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that... more

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    Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate Phillips curve and the bottom up approach give low root mean square errors. The latter, however, is more informative in tracing the effects of shocks and understanding the exact channels through which they affect aggregate inflation. Using scenario analysis-and given a relatively low sensitivity of core inflation to changes in slack, both at the aggregate Phillips curve and sub-components levels-we find that global pressures will likely keep core PCE inflation below 2 percent for the foreseeable future unless the dollar starts to depreciate markedly and the unemployment rate goes well below the natural rate. These results support the accommodative stance of monetary policy pursued thus far and, going forward, underscore the need for proceeding cautiously and very gradually in raising the federal funds rate

     
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  24. An analysis of OPEC’s strategic actions, US shale growth and the 2014 oil price crash
    Author: Behar, Alberto; Ritz, Robert A.
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil... more

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    In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output

     
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  25. Inflation, financial developments, and wealth distribution
    Author: Ho, Wai-Yip Alex; Ho, Chun-Yu
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We find that from 1995 to 2002 in China, the dispersion of wealth decreased, the moneywealth ratio increased for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio increased. We develop a two-asset dynamic general equilibrium model in which... more

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    We find that from 1995 to 2002 in China, the dispersion of wealth decreased, the moneywealth ratio increased for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio increased. We develop a two-asset dynamic general equilibrium model in which households face a portfolio adjustment cost and a borrowing constraint. We find that financial development lowers the dispersion of wealth by reducing the precautionary motive of households. In addition, tight monetary policies increase the value of money and thus increase the moneywealth ratio for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio

     
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