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  1. Spatial aggregation bias in wage curve and NAWRU estimation
    Author: Persyn, Damiaan
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  European Commission, Seville

    I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 627
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to estimating at the underlying regional level. The distribution of regional unemployment rates within countries over time is not mean-scaled. Regions with low unemployment rates are the main drivers of changes in aggregate unemployment. The steepness of a log-linear wage curve in regions with low unemployment dominates at the aggregate (country) level, overestimating wage pressure. Lagged wages are important in explaining wage growth, together with unemployment. This suggests that a wage curve fits the data better than the assumption of a NAWRU or long run natural rate of unemployment. With regional wage curves, spatial aggregation bias can produce aggregate data that resembles such a natural rate of unemployment, however.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227682
    Series: JRC working papers on territorial modelling and analysis ; no 2020, 02
    Subjects: Region; Growth; Unemployment; NAWRU; NAIRU; Wage Curve; Labor markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten)
  2. Climate hysteresis and monetary policy
    Author: Panton, Augustus J.
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VSP 1716
    Inter-library loan:
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2020, 76 (August 2020)
    Subjects: Potential output; output gaps; NAIRU; physical climate risks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
    Author: Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, Claudia; Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  Banco de México, [Ciudad de México, México]

    The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 192
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not depict labor slack properly, as it has the wage flexibility needed to incorporate formal workers that cannot find a formal job. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor market slack indicators follow similar patterns over time. However, the slack estimated with the indicator that includes informality seems to predict inflationary pressures more accurately when the unemployment gap is close to zero.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240698
    Series: Working papers / Banco de México ; no 2020, 09
    Subjects: Unemployment; Informality; NAIRU; Business cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen