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  1. Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment
    Author: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel

    Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time... more

    Location:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Location:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Location:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
    Signature:
    EWP 1
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 3 (1908)
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    Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output gap estimates for euro area data. For many periods the cyclical component of real M1 shows good results, while a forecasting strategy based on projecting GDP series seems to be more robust and provides superior results during the Great Recession. Broader monetary aggregates provide no superior information for output gap estimates.

     
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/93073
    Series: Kiel working paper ; 1908
    Subjects: Output gap; real-time data; M1; M3; euro area; money cycle
    Scope: Online-Ressource (22 S.), graph. Darst.