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  1. Modeling uncertainty in large natural resource allocation problems
    Author: Cai, Yongyang; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Judd, Kenneth L.; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Hertel, Thomas W.
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their... more

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    The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9159
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Dynamic Stochastic Models; Extended Nonlinear Certainty Equivalent Approximation Method; Crop Yields; Land Use; Natural Resources; Uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Modeling uncertainty in large natural resource allocation problems
    Author: Cai, Yongyang; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Judd, Kenneth L.; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Hertel, Thomas W.
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their... more

    Access:
    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9159
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Dynamic Stochastic Models; Extended Nonlinear Certainty Equivalent Approximation Method; Crop Yields; Land Use; Natural Resources; Uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen