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Displaying results 1 to 9 of 9.

  1. Identification of Non-Additive Fixed Effects Models
    Is the Return to Teacher Quality Homogeneous?
    Author: Hahn, Jinyong; Singleton, John D.; Yildiz, Neşe
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively... more

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    Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively and interacts with treatment variables. We present identification and estimation methods for parameters of interest in this model under both strict and weak exogeneity assumptions. The key identification insight is that other periods' treatment variables are instruments for the unobserved fixed effects. We apply our proposed estimator to matched student-teacher data used to estimate value-added models of teacher quality. We show that the common assumption that the return to unobserved teacher quality is the same for all students is rejected by the data. We also present evidence that No Child Left Behind-era school accountability increased the effectiveness of teacher quality for lower performing students

     
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  2. Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments
    A Review
    Author: Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments which combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables by a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or spatial spillovers. We review... more

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    Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments which combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables by a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or spatial spillovers. We review recent econometric tools for this setting, which leverage the assignment process of the exogenous shocks and the structure of the formula for identification. We compare this design-based approach with conventional estimation strategies based on conditional unconfoundedness, and contrast it with alternative strategies that leverage a model for unobservables

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31393
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Modellierung; Schock; Schätztheorie; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  3. Do Two Wrongs Make a Right? Measuring the Effect of Publications on Science Careers
    Author: Ginther, Donna K.; Zambrana, Carlos; Oslund, Patricia; Chang, Wan-Ying
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper examines whether publication data matched to the Survey of Doctorate Recipients can be used for research purposes. We use Gold Standard data created to validate the publication match quality and compare these measures to publications... more

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    This paper examines whether publication data matched to the Survey of Doctorate Recipients can be used for research purposes. We use Gold Standard data created to validate the publication match quality and compare these measures to publications assigned by a machine-learning algorithm developed by Thomson Reuters (now Clarivate). Our econometric model demonstrates that publications likely suffer from non-classical measurement error. Using horse race and instrumental variable models, we confirm that the Gold Standard data are relatively free from measurement error but show that the Clarivate data suffer from non-classical measurement error. We employ a variety of methods to adjust the Clarivate data for false negatives and false positives and demonstrate that with these adjustments the data produce estimates very similar to the Gold Standard. However, these adjustments are not as useful when publications are used as a dependent variable. We recommend using subsamples of the data that have better match quality when using the Clarivate data as a dependent variable

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31844
    Subjects: Wissenschaftliche Publikation; Wissenschaftlicher Nachwuchs; Erwerbsverlauf; Messung; Bibliometrie; Datenqualität; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  4. What to do when you can't use '1.96' Confidence Intervals for IV
    Author: Lee, David S.; McCrary, Justin; Moreira, Marcelo J.; Porter, Jack; Yap, Luther
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    To address the well-established large-sample invalidity of the +/-1.96 critical values for the t-ratio in the single variable just-identified IV model, applied research typically qualifies the inference based on the first-stage-F (Staiger and Stock... more

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    To address the well-established large-sample invalidity of the +/-1.96 critical values for the t-ratio in the single variable just-identified IV model, applied research typically qualifies the inference based on the first-stage-F (Staiger and Stock (1997) and Stock and Yogo (2005)). We fully extend this F-based approach to its logical conclusion by presenting new critical values for the t-ratio to additionally accommodate values of F that do not meet existing thresholds needed for validity. These new t-ratio critical values simultaneously fix the main problem of over-rejection (invalidity) and the under-appreciated possibility of under-rejection (conservativeness) that can occur when relying solely on the usual 1.96 critical value. We show that the corresponding new confidence intervals are generally expected to be substantially shorter than competing "robust to weak instrument" intervals, including those from the recommended benchmark of Anderson and Rubin (1949) (AR). In a sample of 89 specifications from 10 recent empirical studies drawn from five general interest journals, the new "VtF" intervals are shorter than AR intervals 100 percent of the time, and even more likely to produce statistically significant results than the usual +/-1.96 procedure

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31893
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Econometrics; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  5. An IV Hazard Model of Loan Default with an Application to Subprime Mortgage Cohorts
    Author: Palmer, Christopher J.
    Published: December 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper develops a control-function methodology accounting for endogenous or mismeasured regressors in hazard models. I provide sufficient identifying assumptions and regularity conditions for the estimator to be consistent and asymptotically... more

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    This paper develops a control-function methodology accounting for endogenous or mismeasured regressors in hazard models. I provide sufficient identifying assumptions and regularity conditions for the estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Applying my estimator to the subprime mortgage crisis, I quantify what caused the foreclosure rate to triple across the 2003-2007 subprime cohorts. To identify the elasticity of default with respect to housing prices, I use various home-price instruments including historical variation in home-price cyclicality. Loose credit played a significant role in the crisis, but much of the increase in defaults across cohorts was caused by home-price declines unrelated to lending standards, with a 10% decline in home prices increasing subprime mortgage default rates by 50%

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32000
    Subjects: Wohnimmobilien; Immobilienpreis; Hypothek; Kreditrisiko; Subprime-Krise; Insolvenz; IV-Schätzung; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies; Financial Crises; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; Housing Supply and Markets; Government Policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. IV Methods Reconcile Intention-to-Screen Effects Across Pragmatic Cancer Screening Trials
    Author: Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Pragmatic cancer screening trials mimic real-world scenarios in which patients and doctors are the ultimate arbiters of treatment. Intention-to-screen (ITS) analyses of such trials maintain randomization-based apples-to-apples comparisons, but... more

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    Pragmatic cancer screening trials mimic real-world scenarios in which patients and doctors are the ultimate arbiters of treatment. Intention-to-screen (ITS) analyses of such trials maintain randomization-based apples-to-apples comparisons, but differential adherence (the failure of subjects assigned to screening to actually get screened) makes ITS effects hard to compare across trials and sites. We show how instrumental variables (IV) methods address the nonadherence challenge in a comparison of estimates from 17 sites in five randomized trials measuring screening effects on colorectal cancer incidence. While adherence rates and ITS estimates vary widely across and within trials, IV estimates of per-protocol screening effects are remarkably consistent. An application of simple IV tools, including graphical analysis and formal statistical tests, shows how differential adherence explains variation in ITS impact. Screening compliers are also shown to have demographic characteristics broadly similar to those of the full trial study sample. These findings argue for the clinical relevance of IV estimates of cancer screening effects

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31443
    Subjects: Gesundheitsvorsorge; Krebskrankheit; IV-Schätzung; Feldforschung; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Field Experiments; Health Behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  7. Racial Discrimination in Child Protection
    Author: Baron, E. Jason; Doyle, Joseph J.; Emanuel, Natalia; Hull, Peter; Ryan, Joseph P.
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Ten percent of Black children in the U.S. spend time in foster care--twice the rate of white children. We estimate unwarranted disparities in foster care placement decisions, adjusting for differences in the potential for future maltreatment by... more

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    Ten percent of Black children in the U.S. spend time in foster care--twice the rate of white children. We estimate unwarranted disparities in foster care placement decisions, adjusting for differences in the potential for future maltreatment by leveraging the quasi-random assignment of cases to investigators. Using a sample of nearly 220,000 maltreatment investigations, we find that Black children are 1.7 percentage points (50%) more likely to be placed into foster care following an investigation than white children conditional on subsequent maltreatment potential. This disparity is entirely driven by white investigators and by cases where maltreatment potential is present, in which Black children are twice as likely to be placed as white children (12% vs. 6%). These results suggest white children may be harmed by "under-placement" in high-risk situations via the leniency that white investigators afford to white parents. Leveraging the additional quasi-random assignment of hotline call screeners, we find that both screeners and investigators are responsible for unwarranted disparities in placement, with investigators amplifying the disparity for cases with subsequent maltreatment potential and mitigating it for lower-risk cases. This finding highlights the importance of "systems-based" analyses of inequity in high-stakes decisions, where discrimination can compound across multiple decision-makers

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31490
    Subjects: Kinderschutz; Kinder; Ethnische Diskriminierung; Pflegeeltern; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General Welfare, Well-Being; Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  8. Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands
    Author: Andrews, Isaiah; Barahona, Nano; Gentzkow, Matthew Aaron; Rambachan, Ashesh; Shapiro, Jesse M.
    Published: October 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero... more

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    We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning that the researcher concludes that the endogenous variable has no causal effect on the outcome whenever this is actually the case. Sharp zero consistency generally requires the researcher's estimator to satisfy a condition that we call strong exclusion. When a researcher has access to excluded, exogenous variables, strong exclusion can often be achieved by appropriate choice of estimator and instruments. Failure of strong exclusion can lead to large bias in estimates of causal effects in realistic situations. Our results cover many settings of interest including models of differentiated goods demand with endogenous prices and models of production with endogenous inputs

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31799
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; IV-Schätzung; Strukturmodell; Theorie; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity; Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Estimating the Impact of the Age of Criminal Majority
    Decomposing Multiple Treatments in a Regression Discontinuity Framework
    Author: Mueller-Smith, Michael; Pyle, Benjamin; Walker, Caroline
    Published: August 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Admin- istrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne... more

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    This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Admin- istrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit). Using the discrete age of majority rule and a regression discontinuity design, we find that adult prosecution reduces future criminal charges over 5 years by 0.48 felony cases (↓ 20%) while also worsening labor market outcomes: 0.76 fewer employers (↓ 19%) and $674 fewer earnings (↓ 21%) per year. We develop a novel econometric framework that combines standard regression discontinuity methods with predictive machine learning models to identify mechanism-specific treatment effects that underpin the overall impact of adult prosecution. We leverage these estimates to consider four policy counterfactuals: (1) raising the age of majority, (2) increasing adult dismissals to match the juvenile disposition rates, (3) eliminating adult incarceration, and (4) expanding juvenile record sealing opportunities to teenage adult defendants. All four scenarios generate positive returns for government budgets. When accounting for impacts to defendants as well as victim costs borne by society stemming from increases in recidivism, we find positive social returns for juvenile record sealing expansions and dismissing marginal adult charges; raising the age of majority breaks even. Eliminating prison for first-time adult felony defendants, however, increases net social costs. Policymakers may still find this attractive if they are willing to value beneficiaries (taxpayers and defendants) slightly higher (124%) than potential victims

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31523
    Subjects: Kriminalität; Erwachsene; Rechtsdurchsetzung; Straftäter; Kausalanalyse; Erwerbsverlauf; Schätzung; Regressionsanalyse; Künstliche Intelligenz; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Neural Networks and Related Topics; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Criminal Law; Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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