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  1. Local Projections vs. VARs
    Lessons From Thousands of DGPs
    Author: Li, Dake; Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel; Wolf, Christian
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic... more

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    We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various identification schemes and several variants of LP and VAR estimators. A clear bias-variance trade-off emerges: LP estimators have lower bias than VAR estimators but substantially higher variance at intermediate and long horizons. Consequently, unless researchers are overwhelmingly concerned with bias, shrinkage via Bayesian VARs or penalized LPs is attractive

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30207
    Subjects: Zeitreihenanalyse; IV-Schätzung; VAR-Modell; Big Data; Data Analytics; Schätztheorie; Local Projection Method; Data Generation Process; Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  2. Simple Tests for Selection
    Learning More from Instrumental Variables
    Author: Black, Dan A.; Joo, Joonhwi; LaLonde, Robert John; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Taylor, Evan J.
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist framework for Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs). Our setup allows researchers not only to test for selection on either or both of the treated and... more

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    We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist framework for Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs). Our setup allows researchers not only to test for selection on either or both of the treated and untreated outcomes, but also to assess the magnitude of the selection effect. We show that it applies to the standard binary instrument case, as well as to experiments with imperfect compliance and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs, and we link it to broader discussions regarding instrumental variables. We illustrate the substantive value added by our framework with three empirical applications drawn from the literature

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30291
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Feldforschung; Schätztheorie; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; Field Experiments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  3. Arming opposition: measuring the effect of arms transfers on internal conflict
    Author: Gallea, Quentin
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Université de Lausanne, Faculté des hautes études commerciales (HEC), Département d'économie, Lausanne

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    Series: Cahier de recherches économiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie ; 19, 10
    Subjects: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Internal Conict,Migration; Rebellion; Arms imports
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Identification of Non-Additive Fixed Effects Models
    Is the Return to Teacher Quality Homogeneous?
    Author: Hahn, Jinyong; Singleton, John D.; Yildiz, Neşe
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively... more

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    Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively and interacts with treatment variables. We present identification and estimation methods for parameters of interest in this model under both strict and weak exogeneity assumptions. The key identification insight is that other periods' treatment variables are instruments for the unobserved fixed effects. We apply our proposed estimator to matched student-teacher data used to estimate value-added models of teacher quality. We show that the common assumption that the return to unobserved teacher quality is the same for all students is rejected by the data. We also present evidence that No Child Left Behind-era school accountability increased the effectiveness of teacher quality for lower performing students

     
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  5. Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments
    A Review
    Author: Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments which combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables by a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or spatial spillovers. We review... more

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    Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments which combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables by a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or spatial spillovers. We review recent econometric tools for this setting, which leverage the assignment process of the exogenous shocks and the structure of the formula for identification. We compare this design-based approach with conventional estimation strategies based on conditional unconfoundedness, and contrast it with alternative strategies that leverage a model for unobservables

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31393
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Modellierung; Schock; Schätztheorie; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. Local Projections
    Author: Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M.
    Published: August 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between... more

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    A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of these interactions can be untangled using local projections. This method's simplicity makes it a convenient and versatile tool in the empiricist's kit, one that is generalizable to complex settings. This article reviews the state-of-the art for the practitioner, discusses best practices and possible extensions of local projections methods, along with their limitations

     
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  7. Building Non-Discriminatory Algorithms in Selected Data
    Author: Arnold, David; Dobbie, Will; Hull, Peter
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We develop new quasi-experimental tools to understand algorithmic discrimination and build non-discriminatory algorithms when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed. These tools are applied in the context of pretrial bail decisions,... more

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    We develop new quasi-experimental tools to understand algorithmic discrimination and build non-discriminatory algorithms when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed. These tools are applied in the context of pretrial bail decisions, where conventional algorithmic predictions are generated using only the misconduct outcomes of released defendants. We first show that algorithmic discrimination arises in such settings when the available algorithmic inputs are systematically different for white and Black defendants with the same objective misconduct potential. We then show how algorithmic discrimination can be eliminated by measuring and purging these conditional input disparities. Leveraging the quasi-random assignment of bail judges in New York City, we find that our new algorithms not only eliminate algorithmic discrimination but also generate more accurate predictions by correcting for the selective observability of misconduct outcomes

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32403
    Subjects: Algorithmus; Schätztheorie; Prognose; Kriminalität; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination; Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  8. Identifying the Cumulative Causal Effect of a Non-Binary Treatment from a Binary Instrument
    Author: Vohra, Vedant; Goldin, Jacob
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The effect of a treatment may depend on the intensity with which it is administered. We study identification of ordered treatment effects with a binary instrument, focusing on the effect of moving from the treatment's minimum to maximum intensity.... more

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    The effect of a treatment may depend on the intensity with which it is administered. We study identification of ordered treatment effects with a binary instrument, focusing on the effect of moving from the treatment's minimum to maximum intensity. With arbitrary heterogeneity across units, standard IV assumptions (Angrist and Imbens, 1995) do not constrain this parameter, even among compliers. We consider a range of additional assumptions and show how they can deliver sharp, informative bounds. We illustrate our approach with two applications, involving the effect of (1) health insurance on emergency department usage, and (2) attendance in an after-school program on student learning

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32425
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Causal Effects in Matching Mechanisms with Strategically Reported Preferences
    Author: Bertanha, Marinho; Luflade, Margaux; Mourifié, Ismael
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A growing number of central authorities use assignment mechanisms to allocate students to schools in a way that reflects student preferences and school priorities. However, most real-world mechanisms incentivize students to strategically misreport... more

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    A growing number of central authorities use assignment mechanisms to allocate students to schools in a way that reflects student preferences and school priorities. However, most real-world mechanisms incentivize students to strategically misreport their preferences. In this paper, we provide an approach for identifying the causal effects of school assignment on future outcomes that accounts for strategic misreporting. Misreporting may invalidate existing point-identification approaches, and we derive sharp bounds for causal effects that are robust to strategic behavior. Our approach applies to any mechanism as long as there exist placement scores and cutoffs that characterize that mechanism's allocation rule. We use data from a deferred acceptance mechanism that assigns students to more than 1,000 university-major combinations in Chile. Matching theory predicts that students' behavior in Chile should be strategic because they can list only up to eight options, and we find empirical evidence consistent with such behavior. Our bounds are informative enough to reveal significant heterogeneity in graduation success with respect to preferences and school assignment

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32434
    Subjects: Studierende; Matching; Hochschule; Asymmetrische Information; Bildungsniveau; Bildungsertrag; Schätzung; Chile; Econometrics; Hypothesis Testing: General; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
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  10. A Sharp Test for the Judge Leniency Design
    Author: Coulibaly, Mohamed; Hsu, Yu-Chin; Mourifié, Ismael; Wan, Yuanyuan
    Published: May 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We propose a new specification test to assess the validity of the judge leniency design. We characterize a set of sharp testable implications, which exploit all the relevant information in the observed data distribution to detect violations of the... more

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    We propose a new specification test to assess the validity of the judge leniency design. We characterize a set of sharp testable implications, which exploit all the relevant information in the observed data distribution to detect violations of the judge leniency design assumptions. The proposed sharp test is asymptotically valid and consistent and will not make discordant recommendations. When the judge's leniency design assumptions are rejected, we propose a way to salvage the model using partial monotonicity and exclusion assumptions, under which a variant of the Local Instrumental Variable (LIV) estimand can recover the Marginal Treatment Effect. Simulation studies show our test outperforms existing non-sharp tests by significant margins. We apply our test to assess the validity of the judge leniency design using data from Stevenson (2018), and it rejects the validity for three crime categories: robbery, drug selling, and drug possession

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32456
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Statistischer Test; Kausalanalyse; Kriminalität; Ökonometrie; "Judge Leniency" Design; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; Hypothesis Testing: General; Methodological Issues: General; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
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  11. ESG Confusion and Stock Returns
    Tackling the Problem of Noise
    Author: Berg, Florian; Koelbel, Julian F.; Pavlova, Anna; Rigobón, Roberto
    Published: October 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    How does ESG (environmental, social, and governance) performance affect stock returns? Answering this question is difficult because existing measures of ESG perfor- mance -- ESG ratings -- are noisy and, therefore, standard regression estimates... more

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    How does ESG (environmental, social, and governance) performance affect stock returns? Answering this question is difficult because existing measures of ESG perfor- mance -- ESG ratings -- are noisy and, therefore, standard regression estimates suffer from attenuation bias. To address the bias, we propose two noise-correction procedures, in which we instrument ESG ratings with ratings of other ESG rating agencies, as in the classical errors-in-variables problem. The corrected estimates demonstrate that the effect of ESG performance on stock returns is stronger than previously estimated: after correcting for attenuation bias, the coefficients increase on average by a factor of 2.6, implying an average noise-to-signal ratio of 61.7%. The attenuation bias is stable across horizons at which stock returns are measured. In simulations, our noise-correction pro- cedures outperform the standard approaches followed by practitioners such as averages or principal component analysis

     
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  12. Methods for Measuring School Effectiveness
    Author: Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter; Walters, Christopher R.
    Published: December 2022
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Many personal and policy decisions turn on perceptions of school effectiveness, defined here as the causal effect of attendance at a particular school or set of schools on student test scores and other outcomes. Widely-disseminated school ratings... more

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    Many personal and policy decisions turn on perceptions of school effectiveness, defined here as the causal effect of attendance at a particular school or set of schools on student test scores and other outcomes. Widely-disseminated school ratings frameworks compare average student achievement across schools, but uncontrolled differences in means may owe more to selection bias than to causal effects. Such selection problems have motivated a wave of econometric innovation that uses elements of random and quasi-experimental variation to measure school effectiveness. This chapter reviews these empirical strategies, highlighting solved problems and open questions. Empirical examples are used throughout

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30803
    Subjects: Schule; Bildungsertrag; Messung; IV-Schätzung; Bayes-Statistik; Bayesian Analysis: General; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General; Analysis of Education; Education and Inequality
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  13. On Recoding Ordered Treatments as Binary Indicators
    Author: Rose, Evan K.; Shem-Ṭov, Yotam
    Published: March 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Researchers using instrumental variables to investigate ordered treatments often recode treatment into an indicator for any exposure. We investigate this estimand under the assumption that the instruments shift compliers from no treatment to some but... more

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    Researchers using instrumental variables to investigate ordered treatments often recode treatment into an indicator for any exposure. We investigate this estimand under the assumption that the instruments shift compliers from no treatment to some but not from some treatment to more. We show that when there are extensive margin compliers only (EMCO) this estimand captures a weighted average of treatment effects that can be partially unbundled into each complier group's potential outcome means. We also establish an equivalence between EMCO and a two-factor selection model and apply our results to study treatment heterogeneity in the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32234
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Ökonometrie; Econometrics; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
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  14. "Something Works" in U.S. Jails
    Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program
    Author: Alsan, Marcella; Barnett, Arkey M.; Hull, Peter; Yang, Crystal
    Published: March 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A longstanding and influential view in U.S. correctional policy is that "nothing works" when it comes to rehabilitating incarcerated individuals. We revisit this hypothesis by studying an innovative law-enforcement-led program launched in the county... more

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    A longstanding and influential view in U.S. correctional policy is that "nothing works" when it comes to rehabilitating incarcerated individuals. We revisit this hypothesis by studying an innovative law-enforcement-led program launched in the county jail of Flint, Michigan: Inmate Growth Naturally and Intentionally Through Education (IGNITE). We develop an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of IGNITE exposure, which leverages quasi-random court delays that cause individuals to spend more time in jail both before and after the program's launch. Holding time in jail fixed, we find that one additional month of IGNITE exposure reduces within-jail misconduct by 49% and reduces three-month recidivism by 18%, with the recidivism effects growing over time. Surveys of staff and community members, along with administrative test score records and within-jail text messages, suggest that cultural change and improved literacy and numeracy scores are key contributing mechanisms

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32282
    Subjects: Straftäter; Strafvollzug; Straffälligenhilfe; Bildungsertrag; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Returns to Education; Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
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  15. Do Two Wrongs Make a Right? Measuring the Effect of Publications on Science Careers
    Author: Ginther, Donna K.; Zambrana, Carlos; Oslund, Patricia; Chang, Wan-Ying
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper examines whether publication data matched to the Survey of Doctorate Recipients can be used for research purposes. We use Gold Standard data created to validate the publication match quality and compare these measures to publications... more

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    This paper examines whether publication data matched to the Survey of Doctorate Recipients can be used for research purposes. We use Gold Standard data created to validate the publication match quality and compare these measures to publications assigned by a machine-learning algorithm developed by Thomson Reuters (now Clarivate). Our econometric model demonstrates that publications likely suffer from non-classical measurement error. Using horse race and instrumental variable models, we confirm that the Gold Standard data are relatively free from measurement error but show that the Clarivate data suffer from non-classical measurement error. We employ a variety of methods to adjust the Clarivate data for false negatives and false positives and demonstrate that with these adjustments the data produce estimates very similar to the Gold Standard. However, these adjustments are not as useful when publications are used as a dependent variable. We recommend using subsamples of the data that have better match quality when using the Clarivate data as a dependent variable

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31844
    Subjects: Wissenschaftliche Publikation; Wissenschaftlicher Nachwuchs; Erwerbsverlauf; Messung; Bibliometrie; Datenqualität; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General
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  16. What to do when you can't use '1.96' Confidence Intervals for IV
    Author: Lee, David S.; McCrary, Justin; Moreira, Marcelo J.; Porter, Jack; Yap, Luther
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    To address the well-established large-sample invalidity of the +/-1.96 critical values for the t-ratio in the single variable just-identified IV model, applied research typically qualifies the inference based on the first-stage-F (Staiger and Stock... more

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    To address the well-established large-sample invalidity of the +/-1.96 critical values for the t-ratio in the single variable just-identified IV model, applied research typically qualifies the inference based on the first-stage-F (Staiger and Stock (1997) and Stock and Yogo (2005)). We fully extend this F-based approach to its logical conclusion by presenting new critical values for the t-ratio to additionally accommodate values of F that do not meet existing thresholds needed for validity. These new t-ratio critical values simultaneously fix the main problem of over-rejection (invalidity) and the under-appreciated possibility of under-rejection (conservativeness) that can occur when relying solely on the usual 1.96 critical value. We show that the corresponding new confidence intervals are generally expected to be substantially shorter than competing "robust to weak instrument" intervals, including those from the recommended benchmark of Anderson and Rubin (1949) (AR). In a sample of 89 specifications from 10 recent empirical studies drawn from five general interest journals, the new "VtF" intervals are shorter than AR intervals 100 percent of the time, and even more likely to produce statistically significant results than the usual +/-1.96 procedure

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31893
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Schätztheorie; Econometrics; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General
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  17. An IV Hazard Model of Loan Default with an Application to Subprime Mortgage Cohorts
    Author: Palmer, Christopher J.
    Published: December 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper develops a control-function methodology accounting for endogenous or mismeasured regressors in hazard models. I provide sufficient identifying assumptions and regularity conditions for the estimator to be consistent and asymptotically... more

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    This paper develops a control-function methodology accounting for endogenous or mismeasured regressors in hazard models. I provide sufficient identifying assumptions and regularity conditions for the estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Applying my estimator to the subprime mortgage crisis, I quantify what caused the foreclosure rate to triple across the 2003-2007 subprime cohorts. To identify the elasticity of default with respect to housing prices, I use various home-price instruments including historical variation in home-price cyclicality. Loose credit played a significant role in the crisis, but much of the increase in defaults across cohorts was caused by home-price declines unrelated to lending standards, with a 10% decline in home prices increasing subprime mortgage default rates by 50%

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32000
    Subjects: Wohnimmobilien; Immobilienpreis; Hypothek; Kreditrisiko; Subprime-Krise; Insolvenz; IV-Schätzung; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies; Financial Crises; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; Housing Supply and Markets; Government Policy
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  18. Negative Weights are No Concern in Design-Based Specifications
    Author: Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Recent work shows that popular partially-linear regression specifications can put negative weights on some treatment effects, potentially producing incorrectly-signed estimands. We counter by showing that negative weights are no problem in... more

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    Recent work shows that popular partially-linear regression specifications can put negative weights on some treatment effects, potentially producing incorrectly-signed estimands. We counter by showing that negative weights are no problem in design-based specifications, in which low-dimensional controls span the conditional expectation of the treatment. Specifically, the estimands of such specifications are convex averages of causal effects with "ex-ante" weights that average the potentially negative "ex-post" weights across possible treatment realizations. This result extends to design-based instrumental variable estimands under a first-stage monotonicity condition, and applies to "formula" treatments and instruments such as shift-share instruments

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32017
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; Schätztheorie; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
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  19. The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic
    Author: Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A.
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is... more

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    The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of someone misusing opioids on the probability that their best friends also misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is driven by individuals without a college degree and those who live in the same county as their best friends

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32032
    Subjects: Droge; Drogenkonsum; Soziale Gruppe; Soziales Netzwerk; Jugendliche; Junge Erwachsene; IV-Schätzung; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General; Health Behavior; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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  20. Examiner and Judge Designs in Economics
    A Practitioner's Guide
    Author: Chyn, Eric; Frandsen, Brigham; Leslie, Emily C.
    Published: April 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This article provides empirical researchers with an introduction and guide to research designs based on variation in judge and examiner tendencies to administer treatments or other interventions. We review the basic theory behind the research design,... more

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    This article provides empirical researchers with an introduction and guide to research designs based on variation in judge and examiner tendencies to administer treatments or other interventions. We review the basic theory behind the research design, outline the assumptions under which the design identifies causal effects, describe empirical tests of those assumptions, and discuss tradeoffs associated with choices researchers must make for estimation. We demonstrate concepts and best practices concretely in an empirical case study that uses an examiner tendency research design to study the effects of pre-trial detention

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32348
    Subjects: Wissenschaftliche Methode; Kausalanalyse; Empirische Methode; Schätztheorie; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models; Quantitative Policy Modeling; Criminal Law
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  21. IV Methods Reconcile Intention-to-Screen Effects Across Pragmatic Cancer Screening Trials
    Author: Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Pragmatic cancer screening trials mimic real-world scenarios in which patients and doctors are the ultimate arbiters of treatment. Intention-to-screen (ITS) analyses of such trials maintain randomization-based apples-to-apples comparisons, but... more

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    Pragmatic cancer screening trials mimic real-world scenarios in which patients and doctors are the ultimate arbiters of treatment. Intention-to-screen (ITS) analyses of such trials maintain randomization-based apples-to-apples comparisons, but differential adherence (the failure of subjects assigned to screening to actually get screened) makes ITS effects hard to compare across trials and sites. We show how instrumental variables (IV) methods address the nonadherence challenge in a comparison of estimates from 17 sites in five randomized trials measuring screening effects on colorectal cancer incidence. While adherence rates and ITS estimates vary widely across and within trials, IV estimates of per-protocol screening effects are remarkably consistent. An application of simple IV tools, including graphical analysis and formal statistical tests, shows how differential adherence explains variation in ITS impact. Screening compliers are also shown to have demographic characteristics broadly similar to those of the full trial study sample. These findings argue for the clinical relevance of IV estimates of cancer screening effects

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31443
    Subjects: Gesundheitsvorsorge; Krebskrankheit; IV-Schätzung; Feldforschung; Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Field Experiments; Health Behavior
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  22. Racial Discrimination in Child Protection
    Author: Baron, E. Jason; Doyle, Joseph J.; Emanuel, Natalia; Hull, Peter; Ryan, Joseph P.
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Ten percent of Black children in the U.S. spend time in foster care--twice the rate of white children. We estimate unwarranted disparities in foster care placement decisions, adjusting for differences in the potential for future maltreatment by... more

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    Ten percent of Black children in the U.S. spend time in foster care--twice the rate of white children. We estimate unwarranted disparities in foster care placement decisions, adjusting for differences in the potential for future maltreatment by leveraging the quasi-random assignment of cases to investigators. Using a sample of nearly 220,000 maltreatment investigations, we find that Black children are 1.7 percentage points (50%) more likely to be placed into foster care following an investigation than white children conditional on subsequent maltreatment potential. This disparity is entirely driven by white investigators and by cases where maltreatment potential is present, in which Black children are twice as likely to be placed as white children (12% vs. 6%). These results suggest white children may be harmed by "under-placement" in high-risk situations via the leniency that white investigators afford to white parents. Leveraging the additional quasi-random assignment of hotline call screeners, we find that both screeners and investigators are responsible for unwarranted disparities in placement, with investigators amplifying the disparity for cases with subsequent maltreatment potential and mitigating it for lower-risk cases. This finding highlights the importance of "systems-based" analyses of inequity in high-stakes decisions, where discrimination can compound across multiple decision-makers

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31490
    Subjects: Kinderschutz; Kinder; Ethnische Diskriminierung; Pflegeeltern; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; General Welfare, Well-Being; Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
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  23. Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands
    Author: Andrews, Isaiah; Barahona, Nano; Gentzkow, Matthew Aaron; Rambachan, Ashesh; Shapiro, Jesse M.
    Published: October 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero... more

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    We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning that the researcher concludes that the endogenous variable has no causal effect on the outcome whenever this is actually the case. Sharp zero consistency generally requires the researcher's estimator to satisfy a condition that we call strong exclusion. When a researcher has access to excluded, exogenous variables, strong exclusion can often be achieved by appropriate choice of estimator and instruments. Failure of strong exclusion can lead to large bias in estimates of causal effects in realistic situations. Our results cover many settings of interest including models of differentiated goods demand with endogenous prices and models of production with endogenous inputs

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31799
    Subjects: Kausalanalyse; IV-Schätzung; Strukturmodell; Theorie; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity; Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  24. Estimating the Impact of the Age of Criminal Majority
    Decomposing Multiple Treatments in a Regression Discontinuity Framework
    Author: Mueller-Smith, Michael; Pyle, Benjamin; Walker, Caroline
    Published: August 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Admin- istrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne... more

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Admin- istrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit). Using the discrete age of majority rule and a regression discontinuity design, we find that adult prosecution reduces future criminal charges over 5 years by 0.48 felony cases (↓ 20%) while also worsening labor market outcomes: 0.76 fewer employers (↓ 19%) and $674 fewer earnings (↓ 21%) per year. We develop a novel econometric framework that combines standard regression discontinuity methods with predictive machine learning models to identify mechanism-specific treatment effects that underpin the overall impact of adult prosecution. We leverage these estimates to consider four policy counterfactuals: (1) raising the age of majority, (2) increasing adult dismissals to match the juvenile disposition rates, (3) eliminating adult incarceration, and (4) expanding juvenile record sealing opportunities to teenage adult defendants. All four scenarios generate positive returns for government budgets. When accounting for impacts to defendants as well as victim costs borne by society stemming from increases in recidivism, we find positive social returns for juvenile record sealing expansions and dismissing marginal adult charges; raising the age of majority breaks even. Eliminating prison for first-time adult felony defendants, however, increases net social costs. Policymakers may still find this attractive if they are willing to value beneficiaries (taxpayers and defendants) slightly higher (124%) than potential victims

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31523
    Subjects: Kriminalität; Erwachsene; Rechtsdurchsetzung; Straftäter; Kausalanalyse; Erwerbsverlauf; Schätzung; Regressionsanalyse; Künstliche Intelligenz; USA; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; Neural Networks and Related Topics; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Criminal Law; Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  25. Instrumental Variables with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Treatment Effects
    Author: Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander
    Published: September 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This chapter synthesizes and critically reviews the modern instrumental variables (IV) literature that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects (UHTE). We start by discussing why UHTE is often an essential aspect of IV applications in... more

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    This chapter synthesizes and critically reviews the modern instrumental variables (IV) literature that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects (UHTE). We start by discussing why UHTE is often an essential aspect of IV applications in economics and we explain the conceptual challenges raised by allowing for it. Then we review and survey two general strategies for incorporating UHTE. The first strategy is to continue to use linear IV estimators designed for classical constant (homogeneous) treatment effect models, acknowledge their likely misspecification, and attempt to reverse engineer an attractive interpretation in the presence of UHTE. This strategy commonly leads to interpretations of linear IV that involve local average treatment effects (LATEs). We review the various ways in which the use and justification of LATE interpretations have expanded and contracted since their introduction in the early 1990s. The second strategy is to forward engineer new estimators that explicitly allow for UHTE. This strategy has its roots in the Gronau-Heckman selection model of the 1970s, ideas from which have been revitalized through marginal treatment effects (MTE) analysis. We discuss implementation of MTE methods and draw connections with related control function and bounding methods that are scattered throughout the econometric and causal inference literature

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32927
    Subjects: IV-Schätzung; Kausalanalyse; Schätztheorie; Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers