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  1. Inflation and Asset Returns
    Author: Cieślak, Anna; Pflueger, Carolin E.
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The past half-century has seen major shifts in inflation expectations, how inflation comoves with the business cycle, and how stocks comove with Treasury bonds. Against this backdrop, we review the economic channels and empirical evidence on how... more

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    The past half-century has seen major shifts in inflation expectations, how inflation comoves with the business cycle, and how stocks comove with Treasury bonds. Against this backdrop, we review the economic channels and empirical evidence on how inflation is priced in financial markets. Not all inflation episodes are created equal. Using in a New Keynesian model, we show how "good" inflation can be linked to demand shocks and "bad" inflation to supply shocks driving the economy. We then discuss asset pricing implications of "good" and "bad" inflation. We conclude by providing an outlook for inflation risk premia in the world of newly rising inflation

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w30982
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Fisher-Effekt; Zinsstruktur; Kapitalmarktrendite; Finanzmarkt; Neoklassische Synthese; Inflationstheorie; General; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General Financial Markets; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  2. Firm Inflation Uncertainty
    Author: Yotzov, Ivan; Anayi, Lena; Bloom, Nicholas; Bunn, Philip; Mizen, Paul; Öztürk, Özgen; Thwaites, Gregory
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty increased significantly from the start of 2021 and reached a peak in the second half of... more

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    We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty increased significantly from the start of 2021 and reached a peak in the second half of 2022, even as a similar measure of sales uncertainty declined. We also find large cross-sectional differences in inflation uncertainty, with uncertainty particularly elevated for smaller firms and those in the goods sector. Finally, we show that firms which are more uncertain about their own price expectations experience higher forecast errors 12 months later. These findings suggest that studying inflation uncertainty at the firm level may be an important new dimension to understanding firm performance

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31300
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Frühindikator; Großbritannien; General
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  3. Tell me something I don't already know
    learning in low and high-inflation settings
    Author: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff; Ponce, Jorge
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households... more

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    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

     
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    Other identifier:
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16305
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; inattention; RCTs; inflation expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?
    Author: Blanchard, Olivier; Bernanke, Ben
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of... more

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    We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge that began in 2021 was the result of shocks to prices given wages. These shocks included sharp increases in commodity prices, reflecting strong aggregate demand, and sectoral price spikes, resulting from changes in the level and sectoral composition of demand together with constraints on sectoral supply. However, although tight labor markets have thus far not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that the effects of overheated labor markets on nominal wage growth and inflation are more persistent than the effects of product-market shocks. Controlling inflation will thus ultimately require achieving a better balance between labor demand and labor supply

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31417
    Subjects: Coronavirus; Epidemie; Wirkungsanalyse; Inflation; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Rohstoffpreis; Inflationserwartung; Arbeitsangebot; Lohn; Geldpolitik; Beveridge-Kurve; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  5. Expected inflation in the euro area
    measurement and policy responses
    Author: Reis, Ricardo
    Published: 25 January 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Array ; DP17849
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Messung; Inflationssteuerung; Geldpolitik; Eurozone; Phillips curve; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The fiscal consequences of missing an inflation target
    Author: Andreolli, Michele; Rey, Hélène
    Published: 20 January 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Array ; DP17826
    Subjects: Inflationssteuerung; Inflationserwartung; Geldpolitik; Zentralbank; Wirkungsanalyse; Öffentliche Finanzen; Öffentliche Schulden; Eurozone; USA; Großbritannien; EU-Staaten; Inflation expectations; Inflation target; Fiscal costs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten)
  7. Inflation and asset returns
    Author: Cieślak, Anna; Pflueger, Carolin E.
    Published: 17 March 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Array ; DP18003
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Fisher-Effekt; Zinsstruktur; Kapitalmarktrendite; Finanzmarkt; Neoklassische Synthese; Inflationstheorie; inflation; risk premia; bond return predictability; stagflation; monetarypolicy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Firms' inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada
    evidence from a business survey
    Author: Ashgar, Ramisha; Fudurich, James; Voll, Jane
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Bank of Canada, Ontario, Ottawa, Canada

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Edition: Last updated: February 27, 2023
    Series: Staff analytical note / Bank of Canada ; 2023, 3
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Preismanagement; Geldpolitische Transmission; Kanada
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the euro area
    Author: Benigno, Pierpaolo; Canofari, Paolo; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Messori, Marcello
    Published: March 13, 2023
    Publisher:  [Luiss School of European Political Economy], [Rome, Italy]

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    Series: Working paper / Luiss School of European Political Economy ; 2023, 4
    Subjects: Inflation; Inflationsrate; Inflationserwartung; Phillips-Kurve; Geldpolitik; Eurozone; EU-Staaten
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources
    Evidence from Italy
    Author: Ropele, Tiziano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Published: April 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using Italian data that includes both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find... more

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    Using Italian data that includes both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss of the dispersed expectations-induced misallocation is low, but we argue that it likely becomes quite significant in times of high inflation

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31190
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Wirkungsanalyse; Allokation; Verhaltensökonomik; Italien; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  11. Inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the euro area
    in-depth analysis requested by the ECON committee
    Author: Benigno, Pierpaolo; Canofari, Paolo; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Messori, Marcello
    Published: March 2023
    Publisher:  European Parliament, Brussels

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789284802760
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    Series: Monetary dialogue papers ; March 2023
    Subjects: Inflation; Inflationserwartung; Geldpolitik; Eurozone; EU-Staaten
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts
    Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
    Author: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Knotek, Edward S.; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on nearly... more

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    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on nearly 60,000 respondents, our data comprise the early low-inflation environment of the COVID pandemic and the 2021 inflation surge. Conventionally elicited inflation expectations consistently exceed aggregated measures constructed under plausible weighting schemes. Aggregated measures display less disagreement and volatility and are stronger predictors of consumers' spending plans. The relative informational value of aggregated measures rises with the individual-level gap between conventional and aggregated inflation expectations. Our results chart a new course for designing measurement of inflation expectations

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31822
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Messung; Konsumentenverhalten; Konsumentenpräferenzen; Verbrauchereinstellung; Befragung; USA; Survey Methods; Sampling Methods; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  13. A financial new Keynesian model
    Author: Mertens, Thomas; Zhang, Tony
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2023, 35 (November 2023)
    Subjects: Finanzmarkt; Inflationserwartung; Risikoneutralität; Geldpolitik; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Lifetime Memories of Inflation
    Evidence from Surveys and the Lab
    Author: Salle, Isabelle; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Published: December 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study how individuals' memories of inflation shape their expectations about future inflation using both surveys and laboratory experiments. Recalling having lived through prior disinflations has pronounced effects on how long-lived people expect... more

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    We study how individuals' memories of inflation shape their expectations about future inflation using both surveys and laboratory experiments. Recalling having lived through prior disinflations has pronounced effects on how long-lived people expect the current inflation episode to last. Information treatments in which we show people prior disinflationary experiences similarly strongly reduce inflation expectations of individuals on average and are often recalled as inflation memories months later. We also show that when people try to forecast inflation in the lab, the inflation dynamics in the game can affect their beliefs much like the inflation experienced in real life. Methodologically, we compare and contrast surveys and lab experiments and discuss the pros and cons of each method, emphasizing the general consistency across the two methodologies

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31996
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Konsumentenverhalten; Inflation; Experiment; Verhalten; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Money and Interest Rates; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  15. Fiscal events and anchored inflation expectations
    Author: Ilzetzki, Ethan
    Published: May 15, 2023
    Publisher:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

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    Series: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2024, 10]
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Finanzpolitik; Geldpolitik; Schock; Welt
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  16. Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know
    Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings
    Author: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent H.; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households... more

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31485
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; General
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  17. Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms
    Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms
    Author: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Melnick, Rafi; Kutai, Ari
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms' inflation... more

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    This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms' inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about inflation or monetary policy. We find that even after successful de-dollarization and disinflation a positive inflation surprise leads to a sizable upward adjustment in inflation expectations for the next year and quarter. A surprise hike in the monetary interest rate leads to a downward adjustment in inflation expectations

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31507
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Unternehmen; Frühindikator; Geldpolitik; Israel; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  18. Tell me something I don't already know
    learning in low- and high-inflation settings
    Author: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms... more

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    Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

     
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    Language: English
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279463
    Series: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2023, 8 (July 2023)
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; inattention; RCTs; inflation expectation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland
    what do we know in 2023?
    Author: Greszta, Michał
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Narodowy Bank Polski, Warsaw

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    Series: NBP working paper ; no. 365
    Subjects: Geldpolitische Transmission; Inflationserwartung; Polen
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 121 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe
    Author: Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; Eufinger, Christian
    Published: October 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation through a... more

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    We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with high pricing power increased product markups in sectors witnessing high demand. Eventually, even though supply-chain pressures eased, these firms were able to further increase markups due to the stickiness of inflation expectations. The resulting persistent impact on inflation suggests supply-side impulses can generalize into broad-based inflation via an interaction of household expectations and firm pricing power

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31790
    Subjects: Inflation; Lieferkette; Schock; Inflationserwartung; Preismanagement; Coronavirus; Epidemie; EU-Staaten; Expectations; Speculations; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Central Banks and Their Policies; Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  21. Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money
    Author: Afrouzi, Hassan
    Published: October 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies how competition affects firms' expectations in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with rational inattention and oligopolistic competition where firms acquire information about their competitors' beliefs. In the model, firms... more

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    This paper studies how competition affects firms' expectations in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with rational inattention and oligopolistic competition where firms acquire information about their competitors' beliefs. In the model, firms with fewer competitors are less attentive to aggregate variables--a novel prediction supported by survey evidence. A calibrated version of the model matches the relationship between firms' numbers of competitors and their uncertainty about aggregate inflation as a non-targeted moment. A quantitative exercise reveals that firms' strategic inattention to aggregates significantly amplifies monetary non-neutrality and shifts output response disproportionately towards less competitive oligopolies by distorting relative prices

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31796
    Subjects: Unternehmen; Wettbewerb; Inflationserwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Neutralität des Geldes; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Unternehmen; Wettbewerb; Inflationserwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Neutralität des Geldes; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  22. Addressing inflationary risks in the face of high energy prices
    what can the ECB do? : in-depth analysis requested by the ECON committee
    Author: Ider, Gökhan; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Schumann, Ben; Kurcz, Frederik
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  European Parliament, Brussels

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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789284803149
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    Series: Monetary dialogue papers ; March 2023
    Subjects: Energieversorgung; Energiepreis; Inflationserwartung; Inflationssteuerung; Geldpolitik; Eurozone; EU-Staaten
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Inflation expectations and misallocation of resources
    evidence from Italy
    Author: Ropele, Tiziano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Published: May 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using Italian data that includes both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find... more

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    Using Italian data that includes both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss of the dispersed expectations-induced misallocation is moderate, but we argue that it likely becomes quite significant in times of high inflation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272733
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16106
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Wirkungsanalyse; Allokation; Verhaltensökonomik; Italien; misallocation; inflation expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The Central Bank's Dilemma
    Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
    Author: Beaudry, Paul; Carter, Thomas J.; Lahiri, Amartya
    Published: September 2023
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture... more

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    When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions on how expectations are formed, including a form of bounded rationality involving level-k thinking (LKT). Despite modelling LKT in a way that nests both adaptive and rational expectations as special cases, we show that the optimal policy under LKT is qualitatively different and involves abrupt pivots in the policy stance. In particular, it is optimal for the central bank to initially look through supply shocks until a threshold is reached, then pivot discontinuously to a more hawkish anti-inflationary stance. We find that such pivots can, if optimally executed, be compatible with soft landings in the sense that most (or even all) of the reduction in inflation occurs through re-anchoring of expectations rather than economic slack. We also discuss risks and why policy errors in terms of tightening too late or too slowly can be especially costly in such an environment

     
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w31741
    Subjects: Gesamtwirtschaftliches Angebot; Schock; Geldpolitik; Inflationsbekämpfung; Inflationserwartung; Theorie; General
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  25. Oil prices and inflation forecasts
    Author: Bürgi, Constantin; Srivastava, Prachi; Whelan, Karl
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  UCD School of Economics, University College Dublin, Dublin

    We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find little evidence from two US household surveys that people over-react to their beliefs about gasoline prices when formulating their... more

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    We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find little evidence from two US household surveys that people over-react to their beliefs about gasoline prices when formulating their forecasts about inflation, with much of the evidence pointing towards under-reaction. We also show that the participants in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Wall Street Journal survey of economists appear to place too little weight on their subjective forecasts for oil prices when making their forecasts for total inflation.

     
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/296701
    Series: Working paper series / UCD Centre for Economic Research ; WP23, 27 (November 2023)
    Subjects: Inflationserwartung; Verbraucher; Wirtschaftsprognose; Ölpreis; Benzinpreis; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen