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Displaying results 1 to 24 of 24.

  1. Commuting subsidies in Belgium
    implementation in the PLANET model
    Author: Laine, Benoît; Van Steenbergen, Alex
    Published: October 2016
    Publisher:  Federal Planning Bureau, Brussels

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Federal Planning Bureau ; 16, 11
    Subjects: Externalities; Personal Income Tax and Subsidies; Transportation: Demand; Supply and Congestion
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Estimating the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
    Author: Cerdeiro, Diego A.
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is... more

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    In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members

     
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  3. Global financial conditions and monetary policy autonomy
    Author: Caceres, Carlos; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A... more

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    Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested

     
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  4. China's imports slowdown
    spillovers, spillins, and spillbacks
    Author: Kireev, Aleksej P.; Leonidov, Andrei
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which... more

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    The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact

     
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  5. United Kingdom
    financial sector assessment program : systemic risk and interconnectedness analysis : technical note
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper summarizes the assessment of interconnectedness and systemic risk undertaken for the U.K. financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It consists of three parts, focusing on the following: (1) motivation for... more

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    This paper summarizes the assessment of interconnectedness and systemic risk undertaken for the U.K. financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It consists of three parts, focusing on the following: (1) motivation for monitoring cross-sector interconnectedness as part of the financial system's resilience assessment, (2) description of selected empirical methods that may be employed to analyze interconnectedness, and (3) an illustrative analysis conducted, based on a definition of the financial system that incorporates U.K. banking and life insurance sectors. The assessment of financial system resilience should account for the evolution of interconnectedness between firms and sectors

     
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  6. Cross-country report on spillovers
    selected issues
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in... more

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    This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in the East, scaling up public infrastructure to attract investment to less productive regions, and facilitating labor mobility. This paper also discusses female labor participation in Poland and the potential impact on bank profitability of the recently implemented bank asset tax. Poland's population is aging, yet it has an important underused source of qualified labor-its women. For Poland to unleash its full economic potential, it needs to embrace the vital contribution that women can make to its economy

     
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  7. Spillovers from China's growth slowdown and rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 economies
    Author: Dizioli, Allan; Guajardo, Jaime; Kljuev, Vladimir Vladimirovič; Mano, Rui; Raissi, Mehdi
    Published: August 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near... more

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    After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China's rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends

     
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  8. China's growing influence on Asian financial markets
    Author: Arslanalp, Serkan; Liao, Wei; Piao, Shi; Seneviratne, Dulani
    Published: August 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk... more

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    This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China's influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China's financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China's capital account liberalization

     
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  9. U.S. monetary policy normalization and global interest rates
    Author: Caceres, Carlos; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Demir, Ishak; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: September 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on... more

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    As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy

     
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  10. Spillovers from the maturing of China's economy
    Author: Dizioli, Allan; Hunt, Benjamin F.; Maliszewski, Wojciech
    Published: November 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand... more

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    China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China's closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable

     
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  11. Quantifying the spillovers from China rebalancing using a multi-sector Ricardian trade model
    Author: Mano, Rui C.
    Published: September 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China's move up the value chain in particular has the... more

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    This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China's move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers - on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model's strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors

     
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  12. The fiscal treatment of company cars in Belgium
    effects on car demand, travel behaviour and external costs
    Author: Laine, Benoit; Van Steenbergen, Alex
    Published: February 2016
    Publisher:  Federal Planning Bureau, Brussels

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Federal Planning Bureau ; 16-3
    Subjects: Externalities; Personal Income Tax and Subsidies; Transportation: Demand; Supply and Congestion
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. China's imports slowdown
    spillovers, spillins, and spillbacks
    Author: Kireev, Aleksej P.; Leonidov, Andrei
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which... more

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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact

     
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  14. Estimating the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
    Author: Cerdeiro, Diego A.
    Published: May 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is... more

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
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    In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members

     
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  15. Global financial conditions and monetary policy autonomy
    Author: Caceres, Carlos; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A... more

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested

     
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  16. Spillovers from China's growth slowdown and rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 economies
    Author: Dizioli, Allan; Guajardo, Jaime; Kljuev, Vladimir Vladimirovič; Mano, Rui; Raissi, Mehdi
    Published: August 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near... more

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    After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China's rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends

     
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  17. China's growing influence on Asian financial markets
    Author: Arslanalp, Serkan; Liao, Wei; Piao, Shi; Seneviratne, Dulani
    Published: August 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk... more

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    This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China's influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China's financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China's capital account liberalization

     
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  18. U.S. monetary policy normalization and global interest rates
    Author: Caceres, Carlos; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Demir, Ishak; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: September 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on... more

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    As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy

     
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  19. Spillovers from the maturing of China's economy
    Author: Dizioli, Allan; Hunt, Benjamin F.; Maliszewski, Wojciech
    Published: November 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand... more

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    China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China's closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable

     
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  20. Quantifying the spillovers from China rebalancing using a multi-sector Ricardian trade model
    Author: Mano, Rui C.
    Published: September 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China's move up the value chain in particular has the... more

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    This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China's move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers - on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model's strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors

     
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  21. United Kingdom
    financial sector assessment program : systemic risk and interconnectedness analysis : technical note
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper summarizes the assessment of interconnectedness and systemic risk undertaken for the U.K. financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It consists of three parts, focusing on the following: (1) motivation for... more

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    This paper summarizes the assessment of interconnectedness and systemic risk undertaken for the U.K. financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It consists of three parts, focusing on the following: (1) motivation for monitoring cross-sector interconnectedness as part of the financial system's resilience assessment, (2) description of selected empirical methods that may be employed to analyze interconnectedness, and (3) an illustrative analysis conducted, based on a definition of the financial system that incorporates U.K. banking and life insurance sectors. The assessment of financial system resilience should account for the evolution of interconnectedness between firms and sectors

     
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  22. Cross-country report on spillovers
    selected issues
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in... more

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    This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in the East, scaling up public infrastructure to attract investment to less productive regions, and facilitating labor mobility. This paper also discusses female labor participation in Poland and the potential impact on bank profitability of the recently implemented bank asset tax. Poland's population is aging, yet it has an important underused source of qualified labor-its women. For Poland to unleash its full economic potential, it needs to embrace the vital contribution that women can make to its economy

     
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  23. Congestion, agglomeration, and the structure of cities
    Author: Brinkman, Jeffrey C.
    Published: May 10, 2016
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 16, 13
    Subjects: Congestion; Agglomeration; Externalities; Spatial equilibrium; Urban structure; Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Welfare gains from reducing the implementation delays in public investment
    Author: Özbilgin, H. Murat
    Published: December 2016
    Publisher:  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Head Office, Structural Economic Research Department, Ankara, Turkey

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Working paper / Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ; no: 16, 28
    Subjects: Public investment; Time-to-Build; Externalities; Welfare
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen