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  1. Assuring growth over the medium term
    Published: January 2013
    Publisher:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9780821398821
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12124
    Series: Global economic prospects ; volume 6 (January 2013)
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Entwicklungsländer; Global Economic Prospects; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 178 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The monetary model of the US dollar: Japanese yen exchange rate ; an empirical investigation
    Author: Hunter, John; Ali, Faek Menla
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Brunel Univ. West London, Brunel Business School, Uxbridge

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Economics and finance working paper series / Brunel University West London, Brunel Business School ; 13-08
    Subjects: Cointegration; Exchange Rates; Monetary Approach; Weak Exogeneity
    Scope: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  3. Assuring growth over the medium term
    Published: January 2013
    Publisher:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Clausthal
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VSP 732
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks.

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9780821398821
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12124
    Series: Global economic prospects ; volume 6 (January 2013)
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Entwicklungsländer; Global Economic Prospects; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 178 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Implicit asymmetric exchange rate Peg under inflation targeting regimes
    the case of Turkey
    Author: Benlialper, Ahmet; Cömert, Hasan
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Turkish Economic Association, Ankara

    Especially, after the 2000s, many developing countries let exchange rates float and began implementing inflation targeting regimes based on mainly manipulation of expectations and aggregate demand. However, most developing countries implementing... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 145 (2013,11)
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Especially, after the 2000s, many developing countries let exchange rates float and began implementing inflation targeting regimes based on mainly manipulation of expectations and aggregate demand. However, most developing countries implementing inflation targeting regimes experienced considerable appreciation trends in their currencies. Might have exchange rates been utilized as implicit tools even under inflation targeting regimes in developing countries? To answer this question and investigate the determinants of inflation under an inflation targeting regime, as a case study, this paper analyzes the Turkish experience with the inflation targeting regime between 2002 and 2008. There are two main findings of this paper. First, the evidence from a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model suggests that the main determinants of inflation in Turkey during this period are supply side factors such as international commodity prices and the variation in exchange rate rather than demand side factors. Since the Turkish lira (TL) was considerably over-appreciated during this period, it is apparent that the Turkish Central Bank benefited from the appreciation of the TL in its fight against inflation during this period. Second, our findings suggest that the appreciation of the TL is related to the deliberate asymmetric policy stance of the Bank with respect to the exchange rate. Both the econometric analysis from a VAR model and descriptive statistics indicate that appreciation of the Turkish lira was tolerated during the period under investigation whereas depreciation was responded aggressively by the Bank. We call this policy stance under the inflation targeting regimes as "implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg". The Turkish experience indicates that, as opposed to rhetoric of central banks in developing countries, inflation targeting developing countries may have an asymeyric stance toward exchange rates and favour appreciation of their currencies to hit their inflation targets. In this sense, IT seems to contribute to the ignorance of dangers regarding to over-appreciation of currencies in developing countries.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/130136
    Series: Discussion paper / Turkish Economic Association ; 2013/11
    Subjects: Inflation Targeting; Central Banking; Developing Countries; Exchange Rates
    Scope: Online-Ressource (31 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. Die These vom globalen Währungskrieg und das Trilemma der internationalen Währungspolitik
    Author: Matthes, Jürgen
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Inst. der dt. Wirtschaft Köln, Köln

    Die Debatte über einen vermeintlichen globalen Währungskrieg ist durch die sehr expansive Geldpolitik vieler Industrieländer wieder aufgeflammt. Denn diese Politik führt zu Währungsabwertungen und damit tendenziell zu einer Verbesserung der... more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 389 (2013,9)
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    Die Debatte über einen vermeintlichen globalen Währungskrieg ist durch die sehr expansive Geldpolitik vieler Industrieländer wieder aufgeflammt. Denn diese Politik führt zu Währungsabwertungen und damit tendenziell zu einer Verbesserung der internationalen preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit einer Volkswirtschaft relativ zu ihren Wettbewerbern. Aus diesem Grund wiederholte der brasilianische Finanzminister Guido Mantega schon im Herbst 2012 - anlässlich des dritten Aufkaufprogramms für Staatsanleihen der US-Notenbank - seinen schon im September 2010 erhobenen Vorwurf eines globalen Währungskrieges. Jüngst hat der Schwenk des neuen japanischen Notenbankchefs Haruhiko Kuroda hin zu einer extrem expansiven Geldpolitik international viel Kritik auf sich gezogen - aus den USA und von der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) ebenso wie von der russischen Notenbank. In der Folge fand sich das Thema Währungskrieg auch auf der Agenda der jüngsten Tagungen der G7- und G20-Staaten. Aus Frankreich kamen im Zuge dieser Debatte bereits Forderungen nach einer aktiven Wechselkurspolitik für Europa. Dieser Beitrag hinterfragt die These vom Währungskrieg und nimmt dazu die Währungsrelationen zwischen den großen Industrieländern in den Blick.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/74785
    Series: IW policy papers ; 9/2013
    Subjects: Europäische Währungsunion; Exporte und Importe; Wechselkurse; Welthandel; European Monetary Union; Exchange Rates; Exports And Imports
    Scope: Online-Ressource (23 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. Monetary policy and exchange rates
    a balanced two-country cointegrated VAR model approach
    Author: Heinlein, Reinhold; Krolzig, Hans-Martin
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ. of Kent, School of Economics, [Canterbury]

    We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the "delayed overshooting puzzle", which consistently treats the domestic and foreign... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 178 (2013,21)
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    We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the "delayed overshooting puzzle", which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process, we consider the full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The consequential inevitable problem of model dimensionality is tackled in this paper by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981) commonly used in economic theory. Assuming country symmetry in the long-run allows to decouple the two-country macro dynamics of country averages and country differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to much smaller systems. Secondly the econometric modelling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with an automatic general-to-specific model selection. The resulting parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model ensures highly significant impulse responses, revealing a delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but suggests an instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/105702
    Series: School of Economics discussion papers ; 1320 [i.e. 1321]
    Subjects: Two-country model; Cointegration; Structural VAR; Gets Model Selection; Monetary Policy; Exchange Rates
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.)