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Displaying results 1 to 12 of 12.

  1. Seeing in the dark
    a machine-learning approach to nowcasting in Lebanon
    Author: Tiffin, Andrew
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem-and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies-we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon's data

     
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  2. Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model
    Author: Alla, Zineddine; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Ghosh, Atish R.
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy,... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker's preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations

     
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  3. Albania
    fiscal transparency evaluation
    Published: January 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses key findings of the fiscal transparency evaluation for Albania. Many of the fundamental elements of fiscal transparency are now in place. The budget clearly shows the government's forecasts of revenue and its plans for spending... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper discusses key findings of the fiscal transparency evaluation for Albania. Many of the fundamental elements of fiscal transparency are now in place. The budget clearly shows the government's forecasts of revenue and its plans for spending and for financing the deficit. The budget is detailed, showing spending on each of several hundred government programs. Reports on the implementation of the budget are frequent, timely, and comprehensive. Basic data on revenue and spending are published monthly, usually no more than 20 days after the end of the month. Quarterly and annual reports give more detailed information. There are even daily reports listing each government payment

     
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  4. Republic of Croatia
    2016 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven by strong exports and tourism, a revival of private consumption, and higher public investment. Consumer prices have largely been declining over the past two years, mainly due to lower energy and food prices. Unemployment declined only slightly since 2014 and remains very high. However, absent concrete measures to underpin some of the planned reforms, slightly higher deficit in 2016 and a slower pace of consolidation over the medium term are projected

     
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  5. Forecast errors and uncertainty shocks
    Author: Chatterjee, Pratiti; Nowak, Sylwia
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
  6. Albania
    fiscal transparency evaluation
    Published: January 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses key findings of the fiscal transparency evaluation for Albania. Many of the fundamental elements of fiscal transparency are now in place. The budget clearly shows the government's forecasts of revenue and its plans for spending... more

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
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    E_Book IMF
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    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper discusses key findings of the fiscal transparency evaluation for Albania. Many of the fundamental elements of fiscal transparency are now in place. The budget clearly shows the government's forecasts of revenue and its plans for spending and for financing the deficit. The budget is detailed, showing spending on each of several hundred government programs. Reports on the implementation of the budget are frequent, timely, and comprehensive. Basic data on revenue and spending are published monthly, usually no more than 20 days after the end of the month. Quarterly and annual reports give more detailed information. There are even daily reports listing each government payment

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
  7. Forecast errors and uncertainty shocks
    Author: Chatterjee, Pratiti; Nowak, Sylwia
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301 (2016,228)
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

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    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
  8. Seeing in the dark
    a machine-learning approach to nowcasting in Lebanon
    Author: Tiffin, Andrew
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
    Signature:
    Online
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Location:
    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 301 (2016,56)
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
    Signature:
    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
    Signature:
    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem-and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies-we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon's data

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
  9. Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model
    Author: Alla, Zineddine; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Ghosh, Atish R.
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy,... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 301 (2016,58)
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    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
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    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Villingen-Schwenningen, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E_Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the 'divine coincidence' breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker's preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
  10. Republic of Croatia
    2016 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia
    Published: June 2016
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
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    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    e-Book Nationallizenz
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    Location:
    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven by strong exports and tourism, a revival of private consumption, and higher public investment. Consumer prices have largely been declining over the past two years, mainly due to lower energy and food prices. Unemployment declined only slightly since 2014 and remains very high. However, absent concrete measures to underpin some of the planned reforms, slightly higher deficit in 2016 and a slower pace of consolidation over the medium term are projected

     
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  11. Adaptačné procesy a pulzujúca ekonomika
    v cykle Paradigmy zmien v 21. storočí = Adaptation processes and pulsating economy : paradigms in the cycle of changes in the 21st century
    Author: Pauhofová, Iveta; Staněk, Peter
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  Ekonomický ústav Slovenskej akadémie vied, Bratislava

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    B 407437
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: Slovak
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    ISBN: 9788071442677
    Subjects: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; Sozialer Wandel; Technischer Fortschritt; Globalisierung; Geopolitik; Welt; Economic forecasting; Economics
    Scope: 160 pages, illustrations, 22 cm
    Notes:

    Includes bibliographical references (pages 151-160)
  12. Paradigmy zmien v 21. storočí
    adaptacné procesy a pulzujúca ekonomika : zborník statí
    Contributor: Pauhofová, Iveta (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  Ekonomický ústav Slovenskej akadémie vied, Bratislava

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    B 405757
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Pauhofová, Iveta (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: Slovak
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    ISBN: 9788071442653
    Edition: Prvé Vydanie
    Subjects: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; Globalisierung; Wirtschaftsintegration; Technischer Fortschritt; Internationaler Wettbewerb; Wirtschaftliche Sicherheit; Einkommensverteilung; Soziale Ungleichheit; Slowakei; Russland; EU-Staaten; Welt; Economic forecasting; Economic development; Economics
    Scope: 373 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Notes:

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