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Displaying results 1 to 14 of 14.

  1. Global trade and the dollar
    Published: November 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar... more

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    We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms

     

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  2. Global trade and the dollar
    Published: November 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar... more

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    We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484327975
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 239
    Subjects: Außenhandelselastizität; Reservewährung; Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Panel; Bayes-Statistik; Nichtparametrisches Verfahren; US-Dollar
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Global trade and the dollar
    Published: November 2017
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 1 (23988)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 23988
    Subjects: Außenhandelselastizität; Reservewährung; Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Panel; Bayes-Statistik; Nichtparametrisches Verfahren; US-Dollar
    Scope: 61 Seiten, 4 ungezählte Seiten, Illustrationen
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  4. Structural reforms and external rebalancing
    Published: August 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural... more

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    Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural reforms improve the current account in the short run, but they can increase the responsiveness and resilience of the economy to external shocks. In particular, elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate increase with some structural indicators, suggesting that structural reforms facilitate the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector in response to a negative external shock. The paper concludes that structural reforms, while not having an immediate positive impact on the current account balance, can be an important complement to traditional macroeconomic adjustment

     

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  5. Exchange rates and trade
    a disconnect?
    Published: March 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate-trade relationship over time

     

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  6. Truncated firm productivity distributions and trade margins
    Published: July 2017
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Research Division, St. Louis, MO

    A standard theoretical prediction is that average exports are independent of tariff rates when the underlying distribution of firm productivities is assumed to be the widely-used Pareto distribution. Assuming that the underlying distribution has no... more

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 65 (2017,18)
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    A standard theoretical prediction is that average exports are independent of tariff rates when the underlying distribution of firm productivities is assumed to be the widely-used Pareto distribution. Assuming that the underlying distribution has no upper bound is undoubtedly inaccurate and produces theoretical results at odds with empirical results. In contrast, we show that upper-truncation of the Pareto distribution makes average exports rise with trade liberalization. This result is derived analytically, and is supported by simulations. We extend our analysis to the cases of lognormal and Fréchet distributions, which are also frequently used by trade economists. Our findings for lognormal and Fréchet distributions are qualitatively similar to the findings using the truncated Pareto

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper series / Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ; 2017, 018A
    Subjects: Importbeschränkung; Außenhandelselastizität; Produktivität; Pareto-Optimum; Außenwirtschaftstheorie; Extensive and intensive margins of trade
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Structural reforms and external rebalancing
    Published: August 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural... more

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    Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural reforms improve the current account in the short run, but they can increase the responsiveness and resilience of the economy to external shocks. In particular, elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate increase with some structural indicators, suggesting that structural reforms facilitate the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector in response to a negative external shock. The paper concludes that structural reforms, while not having an immediate positive impact on the current account balance, can be an important complement to traditional macroeconomic adjustment

     

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  8. The projection approach for multi-way error components models with partially balanced panel data
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  University of Queensland, School of Economics, Brisbane

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 17 (583)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: School of Economics discussion paper series ; [583]
    Subjects: Panel; Monte-Carlo-Simulation; Schätzung; Außenhandelselastizität; Welt; Pseudo Poisson ML
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  9. Exporters and shocks
    Published: May 2017
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Keine Speicherung
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    Language: English
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    Format: Online
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    Series: Staff report / Minneapolis Fed Research ; 549 (May 2017)
    Subjects: Außenhandelselastizität; Kaufkraftparität; Handelsliberalisierung; Partielles Gleichgewicht; Theorie; Schätzung; Irland
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. International trade and intertemporal substitution
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Research Division, St. Louis, MO

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 65 (2017,4)
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    Language: English
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    Format: Online
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    Series: Working paper series / Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ; 2017, 004A
    Subjects: Import; Internationale Wirtschaft; Außenhandelselastizität; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Außenhandelspreis; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Anatomy of the trade collapse recovery and slowdown
    evidence from Korea
    Published: June 15, 2017
    Publisher:  Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Sejong-si

    The last decade of the world trade has been marked by an unprecedented collapse, quick recovery, slowdown, another drop, and recovery. To study cyclical and structural aspects of the recent trend of trade, I use both aggregate and disaggregated trade... more

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 606 (2017,03)
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    The last decade of the world trade has been marked by an unprecedented collapse, quick recovery, slowdown, another drop, and recovery. To study cyclical and structural aspects of the recent trend of trade, I use both aggregate and disaggregated trade statistics of a small open economy, South Korea, whose economic success and growth have been heavily dependent on exports. The aggregate trend of the country is surprisingly similar to that of the world, which is why the trend of Korea's export is called a proxy for the world. I show that while the last drop of trade after 2015 has cyclical aspects, there is evidence that the continued slowdown from 2012 is structural: (1) the so-called `China factor' is found in the analysis of trade-income elasticity of the world and China for imports from Korea. (2) The bilateral trade barriers between Korea and its important trading partners are universally tightening. I also show that the firm sizes, destination countries, and the mode of transactions affect disaggregated trade flows during the slowdown periods. It is advisable to diversify main export products to lower the effect of oil prices on export prices and to strengthen the cooperation with ASEAN countries, whose trade barriers have exceptionally diminished throughout the last decade.--Website

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    ISBN: 9788932242699; 9788932240268
    Series: KIEP working paper ; 17, 03
    Subjects: Kleine offene Volkswirtschaft; Exportinduziertes Wachstum; Außenhandel; Außenhandelselastizität; Handelshemmnisse; Internationale Wirtschaft; Südkorea; Exports; Trade blocs; Elasticity (Economics)
    Scope: 45 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  12. The evolution of non-tariff measures and their diverse effects on trade
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 1402 (419)
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Research report / WIIW, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies ; 419 (May 2017)
    Subjects: Nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse; Außenhandelselastizität; Handelseffekt; Gravitationsmodell; Welt
    Scope: 41 Seiten, Illustrationen, 30 cm
    Notes:

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe

  13. Exchange rates and trade
    a disconnect?
    Published: March 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity... more

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    E_Book IMF
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    We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate-trade relationship over time

     

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  14. The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (11855)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Array ; DP 11855
    Subjects: Preiselastizität; Außenhandelspreis; Außenhandelselastizität; Frankreich
    Scope: 42 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe