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  1. Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics
    An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond
    Author: Brotherhood, Luiz Mário; Kircher, Philipp; Santos, Cézar; Tertilt, Michele
    Published: June 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design. To do so, it introduces an economic framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasizing the value of testing.... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design. To do so, it introduces an economic framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasizing the value of testing. Calibrating the model to the US Covid-19 pandemic reveals an 80% reduction in death toll due to voluntary actions and the lockdown implemented in the US. The optimal lockdown, however, is more stringent than what was implemented in the US. Moreover, the social planner follows an asymmetric approach by locking down the young relatively more than the old. We underscore the importance of testing, showing its impact on reduced deaths, lower economic costs and laxer lockdown. We use the framework to provide systematic insights into pandemics caused by different viruses (among others the Spanish flu), and underline the influence of economic conditions on optimal policies

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w32558
    Subjects: Coronavirus; Epidemie; Altersstruktur; Morbidität; Lockdown; USA; Externalities; Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; General; Analysis of Health Care Markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  2. Fertility decline and age structure in China and India
    actual vs. optimal development
    Author: Fent, Thomas; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Feichtinger, Gustav; Novak, Andreas J.
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

    China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the... more

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    China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the economy, development and sustainability, little is known about the optimal transition from high to medium or even low levels of fertility. Firstly, implementing policies that have the potential to reduce fertility is costly. Secondly, additional costs arise from adapting the infrastructure to a population that fluctuates quickly not only in terms of size but also with respect to the age structure. We apply an intertemporal optimisation model that takes the costs and benefits of fertility decline into account. The optimal time path depends on the cost structure, the planning horizon and the initial conditions. In the case of a long planning horizon and high initial fertility, it may even be optimal to reduce fertility temporarily below replacement level in order to slow down population growth at an early stage. A key finding of our formal investigation is that, under the same plausible parameter settings, the optimal paths for China and India differ substantially. Moreover, our analysis shows that India, where the fertility decline emerged as a consequence of societal and economic developments, followed a path closer to the optimal fertility transition than China, where the fertility decline was state-imposed. The mathematical approach deployed for this analysis provides insights into the optimal long-term development of fertility and allows for policy conclusions to be drawn for other countries that are still in the fertility transition process.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/296577
    Series: Working papers / Vienna Institute of Demography ; 2024, 01
    Subjects: Fertilität; Altersstruktur; Vergleich; Dynamische Wirtschaftstheorie; China; Indien
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen