Post-programme surveillance report / European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
Cyprus (Spring 2024), Cyprus, ...
Published:
2024
Publisher:
Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg
The 16th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place in person from 19 to 22 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff...
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ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
Signature:
VS 338
Inter-library loan:
No inter-library loan
The 16th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place in person from 19 to 22 March 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to the ESM's Early Warning System. The macroeconomic outlook remains positive amidst geopolitical uncertainty. Following a moderation in 2023 to 2.5%, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8% and 2.9% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. At the same time, with a continued expected decline in the prices of energy and other commodities and impact from monetary policy restrictions, headline inflation is forecast to slow down to around 2% in the coming years. The labour market has been performing strongly, with employment increasing. Domestic demand is expected to remain the key growth driver, with private consumption profiting from abating inflation and partial wage indexation, and investment supported by several large projects. External demand for services is expected to continue increasing, albeit at a slower pace. The large current account deficit is set to narrow, but to remain around 11% of the GDP linked to continued projected deficits on the primary income account. The geopolitical developments have so far had only a limited impact on Cyprus, mainly through the inflation channel. Downside growth risks related to the persistent international uncertainty remain, together with some upside risks as companies and individuals from affected areas in the Middle East tend to relocate investments from those areas to safer destinations in the EU, including Cyprus.